1. Investment update Limits to growth Oil Banks China What next?
Bernard Doyle
Oil
April 2016
Banks
China
What next?
Deflation

2. Strategy Update
April 19
growth: why it matters

3. Growth: Medium term Forecasts…
Strategy Update
April 19
Growth: Medium term Forecasts…

4. Strategy Update
April 19
…probably wrong, right?

5. Strategy Update
April 19
Yes, but…

6. Leading to rising wages…
Strategy Update
April 19
Leading to rising wages…
Wage growth gradually recovering

7. …and inflation Pick-up in Inflation is not a fluke Strategy Update
April 19
…and inflation
Pick-up in Inflation is not a fluke

8. Our view: Reality check coming
Strategy Update
April 19
Our view: Reality check coming

9. Less bang for buck post gfc?
Strategy Update
April 19
Less bang for buck post gfc?

10. Which will have implications for profitability…
Strategy Update
April 19
Which will have implications for profitability…
Profit margins will decline as wage growth recovers

11. Strategy Update
April 19
…and the equity cycle

12. Or are we measuring growth badly?
Strategy Update
April 19
Or are we measuring growth badly?
GDP is not equipped to measure software improvements
“You can see the computer age everywhere but in the productivity statistics”
Robert Solow, 1987
Erik Brynjolfsson and Joo Hee Oh estimated in 2012 that the growth in time spent on free internet sites between 2007 and 2011 created incremental consumer surplus worth ¾% of GDP each year.
Erik Brynjolfsson and Joo Hee Oh (2012), “The Attention Economy: Measuring the Value of Free Digital Services on the Internet,” Thirty-Third International Conference on Information Systems, Orlando, 2012

13. Wildcard: Middle classes are stirring
Strategy Update
April 19
Wildcard: Middle classes are stirring
Middle class spending power is improving

14. Either way, interest rates should be higher
Strategy Update
April 19
Either way, interest rates should be higher

15. Strategy Update
April 19
Opportunity: US Banks

16. Long run growth questions: automation
Strategy Update
April 19
Long run growth questions: automation

17. Long run growth questions: sharing
Strategy Update
April 19
Long run growth questions: sharing

18. Long run growth questions: fiscal sustainability
Strategy Update
April 19
Long run growth questions: fiscal sustainability

19. Long run growth questions: human capital
Strategy Update
April 19
Long run growth questions: human capital
The University breakeven is rising

20. Opportunity: technology
Strategy Update
April 19
Opportunity: technology

21. Thank you

22. Strategy Update
April 19
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