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1 Economic Analysis of Law L_and_E_LS_09/Law_and_Econ_09.html

2 Mechanics Midterm Final One Case, past or present –That wasn t argued on economic terms –And isn t in my book or Posner s –Brief oral or written presentation –Supporting one side using economic arguments –Due in or after the week in which the relevant part of the law is discussed. Readings –My book –At least one article, perhaps a few

3 What is Economics Not a particular set of boring but important issues –Inflation –Unemployment –Things having to do with money –But A way of understanding behavior –Based on the assumption of rationality –Meaning that individuals have objectives –And tend to choose the best way of achieving them. –Not that they are perfect cold blooded calculators. Examples –Rational baby –Rational cat –Rational genes

4 Lessons Rationality doesn t have to come from calculation –It might be produced by evolution (babies and cats) –Or selection (CEO s). –Or trial and error (my route home). The assumption doesn t have to be entirely true to be useful –People make mistakes, but … Unless you have a theory of mistakes It may make sense to assume rationality and allow for sometimes being wrong. –You might know yourself well enough to do better than that. – But it is still the best theory for understanding other people. –For one theory of mistakes, see the article on economics and evolutionary biology on my web page. –For an account of some predictable mistakes, see Nudges

5 Layers of Rationality –Physics problems often assume a vacuum Because the analysis is much easier and Often the result is almost right Although firing canon in a vacuum has some practical problems –Suppose you wanted to include air resistance It's still the same theory, just more complicated –The air resistance is due to interaction with –Small canon balls called air molecules Moving in a vacuum! –Similarly for rationality Simplest version: People make the right decision If information costs are central to the problem, however –People are assumed to make the right decision –About how to decide –Which includes being ignorant if the information isn't valuable to them »For instance voting your shares of stock »Or for President of the U.S. »In either case, with near zero chance that you will affect the outcome. If commitment strategies are central to the problem …

6 What does it have to do with law? Law as incentive –If we have this law –And rational individuals take it into account in deciding how to act –What will the consequences be? Which is relevant to –Explaining why the law is what it is –Recommending what the law should be

7 Law as Incentive If we have this legal rule, how will people behave? Consider expanded discovery in civil litigation –An incentive not to keep some kinds of records –Maybe not to ask some questions –Also a way of raising costs to your opponent Consider making homeowners civilly liable for injuring robbers –It might make them less likely to use deadly force, or … –More likely Consider civil forfeiture –Might make innocents more careful about how their property is used, but … –Might also give law enforcement agents an incentive to target valuable property. –Benson s result on the effect of legal changes.

8 –So economics provides a way of predicting the consequences of law Assuming rationality of potential criminals, but also of … Litigators Cops, … –Forward not backward looking The central question is not how ought the mess to be settled but … How will the way we settle this mess affect the behavior of people in the future Clean up your own mess as an economically efficient rule. –It s less work for me to clean up my small child s mess –Than to make him clean it up –But … I cooked, I m tired, shouldn t my roommate clean up?

9 Predicting what the law will be Explaining what it is –Posner conjecture: Common law legal rules are designed to maximize the size of the pie Wealth maximization aka economic efficiency. Which will be explained and discussed in more detail later. –Why would it be true? It is one of the few good things judges can do, so they do it? Because of some invisible hand mechanism? Inefficient rules lead to litigation which leads to a change in the law? Neither is very convincing will come back to them at the end. But … –Has created a project that has played a central role in law and econ Figure out, in each case, what legal rules would maximize efficiency Compare it with the legal rules that exist –In the final chapter I try to sum up the evidence on whether the conjecture is true, but … –True or false, it has led to a lot of interesting work.

10 Recommending what the law should be If you think economic efficiency is a reasonable thing for the law to aim it –Then you can reverse the argument above –Figure out what the law should be and if it isn t try to change it. If you have some other objective –Figure out the consequences of legal rules –So as to find the ones that best achieve it

11 I: Predicting Consequences II: Predicting Law III: Recommending Law The first is the least disputable figure out consequences The second is an empirical conjecture The third is a normative project, ought not is, but easily confused with the second. One could believe that the law is efficient but shouldn t be, or isn t but should be. The Three Projects

12 One Interesting Feature This approach tends to unify law We see the same economic analysis appearing Across all the standard categories –When you understand contract you understand tort –And property –And … To what extent was that true of your first year classes?

13 Law, economics and justice Many people think law can best be explained and judged in terms of justice The approach in this book almost entirely ignores such considerations –Most strikingly, in maximizing the size of the pie, we –give the same weight to costs and benefits to criminals as to costs and benefits to victims In part because deciding who is a criminal requires a theory of what the law should be Which is one of the things we are trying to produce –In part because one interesting result of the project is seeing how much of what we think we favor because it is just in fact is efficient. –And in part because I don t think we have an adequate theory of justice.

14 What Economists Can Learn From Law Abstract theory can make quite serious mistakes –Property I own the land or I don t own the land –Contract I agree to do X Looking at the real world application of the theory may highlight those mistakes –Just what rights do I own with regard to the land? –What is a contract, what counts as a violation, what are the penalties? And sometimes the result is better theory –Coase s The Problem of Social Cost –Came in part out of Coase looking at law cases and –Demonstrated that the approach to externalities accepted by economists was fundamentally wrong –Making it one of the most cited articles in modern economics –Stigler s story about Coase at Chicago.

15 Road Map to the Course Two approaches organized by economics or by law. Do both. First half: by economics Midterm Second half: by law Extra stuff –Some Very Different Systems of Legal Rules –The Tort/Crime puzzle –Is the Common Law Efficient?

16 Organized by Economics Efficiency: How do you define the size of the pie? Externalities –Two approaches to understanding the problem –Using the theory to design legal rules –In particular, to decide who has what rights how protected –For instance: Property rules vs liability rules. Economics of risk Ex Post/Ex Ante enforcement –Speed limits, or … –If you are in an accident you pay for it Game Theory Value of life

17 Organized by Law Property Intellectual Property Contract Family Law Tort Crime Antitrust

18 Extra Stuff at the End Some Very Different Systems of Legal Rules –Saga period Iceland pure tort on steroids »Kill someone, his relatives sue you »Don t pay, you are now an outlaw »It is legal to kill outlaws –18 th c. England: Criminal Law Without Cops –Shasta County norms as a substitute for law The Tort/Crime puzzle –O.J. Simpson was acquitted of the crime of killing his wife –Then convicted of the tort of killing his wife –Why do we have two systems of law to do the same thing? –And why do they do them in different ways? Is the Common Law Efficient?

19 What Is Economic Efficiency? We would like some way of evaluating legal rules –Does this change help more than it hurts –In terms of letting people achieve their objective –Does it increase the size of the pie? The problem: –Any change in legal rules (or anything else) –Affects lots of people in different ways –Making some better off and some worse off –Is there any way of summing? Marshall s answer –Determine, for each person –How much he would pay to get the change (+) or prevent (-) –Sum those numbers –If positive, an improvement

20 Problems with Marshalls Solution We are judging value by actions but people may not know what is good for them –Insulin to a diabetic is valuable –And heroin to an addict –And potato chips and spare ribs to me –As shown by their actions We are only allowing for values to humans –Perhaps there are things that matter whether or not they matter to people –Redwood trees. Live oak in my back yard. Can t cut it down, but … Would be happy if a lightning bolt did the job for me –Mona Lisa? We are ignoring the different amounts of happiness measured by a dollar. –Most obviously, rich vs poor –Less obviously, ascetic vs materialist.

21 Answers to Problems People may not always know, but what alternative is there on which to base legal rules? –Someone else not only may not know what is good for me, he may not care. I care. –Expertise I can always borrow. Other values –Might be real, but … –Except as they are valued by people –How are they going to affect human action? –The tree can t sue. Rich/poor etc. Arguably the strongest. –One answer is that courts don t have much power to redistribute. Consider a court that routinely favors poor tenants The result is to raise the costs of landlords who rent to them And ultimately to make housing less available or more expensive to poor people Consider Chapter 1 discussion of nonwaivable warranty of habitability –Another version is that redistribution through the tax system makes more sense. –Marshall s argument was that for most issues it averages out. –Final answer is that it is much easier to see how to create institutions to maximize value than to maximize happiness Value to me is demonstrated, in comparable form, by market acts Every time I buy an apple So a market gives us a way of maximizing value. How do I demonstrate the utility to me of an apple?

22 Conclusion Considered as a normative criterion, efficiency is a proxy for utility/happiness –Used because it is much easier to implement Both because dollar value is easier to measure than utility And because it is easier to see how to create rules to maximize it As we will see –And the legal rules that maximize it are usually close to those that would maximize happiness. Considered as a predictive criterion, efficiency is probably better than happiness –What affects legislatures is how much money they are offered to vote for a bill –What affects litigation is how much people are willing to spend –Only if judges are deliberately trying to do good might happiness make more sense, assuming they could separately maximize it.

23 Note for Econ Students Two other concepts of efficiency are in the textbooks –Pareto efficiency –Hicks/Kaldor efficiency For the reasons I don t use either, see my webbed price theory chapter on efficiency. The link is on the class web page.

24 Alternative Criteria? Can you offer a better general criterion of goodness? How would you operationalise it? Note that economic analysis of law doesn t require efficiency –It is an interesting conjecture –Perhaps an attractive normative criterion –But the same tools could be used for other purposes –Can you think of an alternative conjecture about what the law maximizes?

25 How to Maximize Efficiency Not the court should decide who should win each case according to which outcome maximizes the efficiency for those people –Most of the time, the court is just shuffling money –Or imposing punishments, which are costly. –But … The court should establish those rules that result in people acting in the way that maximizes efficiency. Punish me for pushing my uncle off the cliff –Not because that makes me or my uncle better off –But because it saves future uncles from their nephews –And murder is usually inefficient My uncle loses money, I get it He Loses a life, I dont get it

26 Starting point: Property, trade, laissez-faire Every object moves to the person who values it most like apples. Objects get produced if and only if the summed value to those who most want them is greater than the summed value of the inputs. Lots of complications in working out this argument to show that the result is efficient –Which some of you have seen before. If not … –You can read my price theory book, or someone else s –But we will let the short argument stand for why it is true –And worry instead about why it isn t.

27 Implicit Assumptions Only voluntary transactions. –Exceptions include not only crime but also –Torts and even … –Perfectly legal acts. Transaction costs –We are assuming that if a transaction would benefit both parties, it happens –Suppose we decide, because of worries about global warming, that one can only produce CO2 with permission from everyone affected. –Letting me (and you) exhale is surely efficient –But consider the transactions needed to get permission

28 Next Week Externalities Suppose my action imposes costs on you –I do it if benefits to me are larger than costs to me –But if benefits to me are less than costs to both of us –Doing it is inefficient Suppose my action provides benefits to you –I might not do it if benefits to me are less than costs to me –Even if benefits to both of us are larger than costs. How can we set up legal rules that make it in my interest to do it only if there are net benefits?

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