1. Project Risk Management
Professor Elaine McColl
PGR Student Coordinator

2. Learning objectives To be able to define a ‘project’
To be able to identify key features of projects, in particular research projects
To be able to define ‘project management’ and to recognise why projects need to be actively managed
To recognise why risk management in projects is necessary
To describe elements of a risk management strategy
To be able to carry out a risk analysis of one’s PhD project and to consider how those risks might be managed

3. What is a project?
“The principal identifying characteristic of a project is its novelty. It is a step into the unknown, fraught with risk and uncertainty: No two projects are ever exactly alike, and even a repeated project will differ in one or more commercial, administrative, or physical aspect from its predecessor.”
Lock D. (1992 Aldershot: Gower)

4. What is a project?
“[A project has] dedicated resources, a single point of responsibility, clear boundaries across which resources and deliverables move, limited duration, [it is a] one-off task and [has] objectives. It is a useful way of organising work. Projects don’t arise without deliberate intervention.”
Personal communication. Gray S. (1994), quoted by Keller L. (1995) Project Management : Unit 1 - Project Initiation. Milton Keynes: Open University.

5. Key features of projects
Projects are UNIQUE undertakings
Projects seek to achieve specific OBJECTIVES or goals
Projects require RESOURCES (people, time, equipment, money etc.)
Projects have BUDGETS; RESOURCES are FIXED
Projects have SCHEDULES and DEADLINES
Projects require input from a range of PEOPLE
Projects carry RISK because of the uncertainty associated with novelty
Projects can be judged by QUALITY criteria

6. What is project management?
“The primary objective [of the project manager] is to complete the project to the contracted quality within the project budget in the contracted timescale…. These three factors [quality, cost and time] have continually to be controlled by the project manager, sometimes trading off one against another. Success requires careful planning.”
Field M. (1995) Project Management: Unit 3 - Planning. Milton Keynes: Open University

7. Why risk manage? Murphy’s Law Robbie Burns Risk management
“Given time, and / or a sufficient scale of operations, anything that can go wrong will go wrong”
Robbie Burns
“The best laid schemes o’ mice and men g’ang aft a-gley”
Risk management
identifies exposure to risk
identifies ways of dealing with these threats

8. Attitudes to risk We’ve planned it all – nothing can go wrong now!
No point in tempting fate!
We’ll cross that bridge when we come to it!
If it can go wrong, it will!

9. Definitions of risk
“Risk represents the chance of adverse consequences or loss occurring.” (Chapman, 1991)
Risk is “Exposure to the possibility of (economic or financial) loss ... or delay as a consequence of the uncertainty associated with pursuing a particular course of action.” (OU, 1995)

10. Other concepts (Nickson and Siddons, 1997)
Contingency
a risk for which you chosen to have an action plan should it occur
an activity or allowance that will have to be made should a specific situation arise
External dependency
a reliance on a third party outside the direct control of the project to supply a necessary component / service

11. Elements of risk management
Risk assessment
risk identification
sources of risk
type of risk
risk analysis
Risk management
identification of risk management strategies
risk monitoring
enactment of contingency plans

12. I kept six honest serving men They taught me all I knew
Pause for poetry
I kept six honest serving men
They taught me all I knew
Their names were what and why and when
And how and where and who…
(Rudyard Kipling)

13. Sources of uncertainty - 1 (Chapman and Ward, 1997)
What
what are the study aims?
what study design is being used?
Why
why is the study being carried out (what are the motives)?
why is it being done this way?
When
when must the study be completed?
when must key milestones be reached?
what are the timescale and schedule for study activities?

14. Sources of uncertainty - 2 (Chapman and Ward, 1997)
How
how is the study being carried out
how are data being collected?
Where (and wherewithal)
where is the study being carried out?
what resources are required?
what resources are available?
Who
who are the stakeholders?
who are the gatekeepers?

15. Elements of both internal and external
Sources of risk
Internal to project
design errors, omissions and misunderstandings
poor estimates
changes in requirements
poorly defined / communicated roles and responsibilities
External to project
changing environment in which research is being conducted
Elements of both internal and external

16. What is at risk? Timely completion
Scientific integrity (quality of the work)
Safety
Of the researcher
Of subjects/participants
Budget over-run
Future career

17. Likelihood / probability of given problem arising
Risk analysis
Likelihood / probability of given problem arising
numeric probability
low, medium, high
Likely impact on outcome of project
arbitrary, numeric scale
Sensitivity to risk - combine likelihood & impact
high probability, high impact
low probability, high impact
high probability, low impact
low probability, low impact

18. Risk management strategies
Avoidance
don’t do risky activity
Reduction
reduce likelihood of the adverse event
Protection
reduce impact of adverse event
Contingency planning
range of options if adverse event occurs
do nothing
alternative procedures
Transfer
transfer some or all of burden of risk to someone else
Acceptance

19. Continual vigilance required Ongoing process Requires timely action
Risk monitoring
Continual vigilance required
Ongoing process
Requires timely action
Look out for and deal with unanticipated risks
Know when (if) to pull the plug

20. Enacting contingency plans
Put into action in a timely fashion
May need to compromise
Consider effect on quality, cost, time equation
Communicate with relevant stake-holders