1. (original notes from Randy Katz, & Prof. Jan M. Rabaey , UC Berkeley)
Technology Trends
Pradondet Nilagupta
Spring 2001
(original notes from Randy Katz, & Prof. Jan M. Rabaey , UC Berkeley)
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

2. 204521 Digital System Architecture
Original
Big Fishes Eating Little Fishes
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

3. 1988 Computer Food Chain Mainframe Work- station PC Mini- computer
supercomputer
Supercomputer
Massively Parallel Processors
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

4. 1998 Computer Food Chain Now who is eating whom? Mini- supercomputer
Massively Parallel Processors
Mainframe
Work-
station PC
Server
Supercomputer
Now who is eating whom?
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

5. 1985 Computer Food Chain Technologies
ECL
TTL
MOS
Mainframe
Work-
station PC
Mini-
computer
Mini-
supercomputer
Supercomputer
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

6. Why Such Change in 10 years? (1/2)
Function
Rise of networking/local interconnection technology
Performance
Technology Advances
CMOS VLSI dominates TTL, ECL in cost & performance
Computer architecture advances improves low-end
RISC, Superscalar, RAID, …
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

7. Why Such Change in 10 years? (2/2)
Price: Lower costs due to …
Simpler development
CMOS VLSI: smaller systems, fewer components
Higher volumes
CMOS VLSI : same dev. cost 10,000 vs. 10,000,000 units
Lower margins by class of computer, due to fewer services
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

8. Technology Trends: Microprocessor Capacity
Moore’s Law
“Graduation Window”
Alpha 21264: 15 million
Pentium Pro: 5.5 million
PowerPC 620: 6.9 million
Alpha 21164: 9.3 million
Sparc Ultra: 5.2 million
CMOS improvements:
Die size: 2X every 3 yrs
Line width: halve / 7 yrs
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

9. Memory Capacity (Single Chip DRAM)
year size(Mb) cyc time ns ns ns ns ns ns ns
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

10. 204521 Digital System Architecture
CMOS Improvements
Die size 2X every 3 yrs
Line widths halve every 7 yrs 25
Die size increase plus transistor count increase 20 15
Transistor Count 10 5
Line Width Improvement
Die Size
1980
1983
1986
1989
1992
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

11. Memory Size of Various Systems Over Time
128K
128M
2000 8K 1M 8M 1G 8G
1970
1980
1990
1 chip
1Kbit
640K 4K
16K
64K
256K 4M
16M
64M
256M
DOS
limit
1/8 chip
8 chips-PC
64 chips
workstation
512 chips
4K chips
Bytes
Time
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

12. Technology Trends (Summary)
Capacity Speed (latency)
Logic 2x in 3 years 2x in 3 years
DRAM 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years
Disk 4x in 3 years 2x in 10 years
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

13. Processor Frequency Trend
Frequency doubles each generation
Number of gates/clock reduce by 25%
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

14. Processor Performance Trends
Microprocessors
Minicomputers
Mainframes
Supercomputers
0.1 1 10
100
1000
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

15. 204521 Digital System Architecture
Performance vs. Time
Mips
25 MHz
0.1
1.0 10
100
Performance (VAX 780s)
1980
1985
1990
MV10K
68K
780
5 MHz
RISC 60% / yr.
uVAX 6K
(CMOS)
8600
TTL
ECL 15%/yr.
CMOS CISC
38%/yr. o |
MIPS (8 MHz)
9000
(65 MHz)
uVAX
CMOS
Will RISC continue on a
60%, (x4 / 3 years)? 4K
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

16. Processor Performance (1.35X before, 1.55X now)
1.54X/yr
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

17. Summary: Performance Trends
Workstation performance (measured in Spec Marks) improves roughly 50% per year (2X every 18 months)
Improvement in cost performance estimated at 70% per year
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

18. Processor Perspective
Putting performance growth in perspective:
IBM POWER Cray YMP
Workstation Supercomputer
Year
MIPS > 200 MIPS < 50 MIPS
Linpack 140 MFLOPS 160 MFLOPS
Cost $120,000 $1M ($1.6M in 1994$)
Clock MHz 167 MHz
Cache KB KB
Memory 512 MB MB
1988 supercomputer in 1993 server!
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

19. Where Has This Performance Improvement Come From?
Technology?
Organization?
Instruction Set Architecture?
Software?
Some combination of all of the above?
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

20. Performance Trends Revisited (Architectural Innovation)
1000
Supercomputers
100
Mainframes 10
Minicomputers
Microprocessors 1
CISC/RISC
0.1
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
Year
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

21. Performance Trends Revisited (Microprocessor Organization)
Bit Level Parallelism
Pipelining
Caches
Instruction Level Parallelism
Out-of-order Xeq
Speculation
. . .
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

22. 204521 Digital System Architecture
What is Ahead?
Greater instruction level parallelism?
Bigger caches?
Multiple processors per chip?
Complete systems on a chip? (Portable Systems)
High performance LAN, Interface, and Interconnect
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

23. 204521 Digital System Architecture
Hardware Technology
Memory chips 64 K M M-1 G
Speed
5-1/4 in. disks 40 M G G
Floppies M M ,000 M
LAN (Switch) Mbits (100) (ATM)
Busses Mbytes
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

24. 204521 Digital System Architecture
Software Technology
Languages C, FORTRAN C++, HPF object stuff??
Op. System proprietary +DUM* DUM+NT
User I/F glass Teletype WIMP* stylus, voice, audio,video, ??
Comp. Styles T/S, PC Client/Server agents*mobile
New things PC & WS parallel proc. appliances
Capabilities WP, SS WP,SS, mail video, ??
DUM = DOS, n-UNIX's, MAC
WIMP = Windows, Icons, Mouse, Pull-down menus
Agents = robots that work on information
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

25. 204521 Digital System Architecture
Computing 2001 (1/2)
Continue quadrupling memory every 3 years
1K chip in 72 becomes 1 gigabit chip (128 Mbytes) in 2002
On-line Gigabytes; $10 1-Gbyte floppies & CDs
Micros increase at 60% per year ... parallelism
Radio links for untethered computing
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

26. 204521 Digital System Architecture
Computing 2001 (2/2)
Telephone, fax, radio, television, camera, house, ... Real personal (watch, wallet,notepad) computers
We should be able to simulate:
Nearly everything we make and their factories
Much of the universe from the nucleus to galaxies
Performance implies: voice and visual Ease of use. Agents!
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

27. Applications: Unlimited Opportunities (1/2)
Office agents: phone/FAX/comm; files/paper handling
Untethered computing: fully distributed offices ??
Integration of video, communication, and computing: desktop video publishing, conferencing, & mail
Large, commercial transaction processing systems
Encapsulate knowledge in a computer: scientific & engineering simulation (e.g.. planetarium, wind tunnel, ... )
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

28. Applications: Unlimited Opportunities (2/2)
Visualization & virtual reality
Computational chemistry e.g. biochemistry and materials
Mechanical engineering without prototypes
Image/signal processing: medicine, maps, surveillance.
Personal computers in 2001 are today's supercomputers
Integration of the PC & TV => TC
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

29. Challenges for 1990s Platforms (1/2)
64-bit computers
video, voice, communication, any really new apps?
Increasingly large, complex systems and environments Usability?
Plethora of non-portable, distributed, incompatible, non-interoperable computers: Usability?
Scalable parallel computers can provide “commodity supercomputing”: Markets and trained users?
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019

30. Challenges for 1990s Platforms (2/2)
Apps to fuel and support a chubby industry: communications, paper/office, and digital video
The true portable, wireless communication computer
Truly personal card, pencil, pocket, wallet computer
Networks continue to limit: WAN, ISDN, and ATM?
Digital System Architecture
April 9, 2019