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Threatcasting Jon Brickey, Ph.D..

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Presentation on theme: "Threatcasting Jon Brickey, Ph.D.."— Presentation transcript:

1 Threatcasting Jon Brickey, Ph.D.

2 Threatcasting The Problem Threatcasting Explained Case Study
Applications & Future Work Questions

3 Why Threatcasting? Risk Management—think beyond today’s fires
Diversity of thought Formalized process

4 Evolution of Cyber Crime and Threat Actors
1997 Virus and Worms DDOS Slammer 2004 For-Profit Malware Mydoom Fakeware 2007 APTs Zeus Conflicker 2010 Key and Certificate based attacks Stuxnet Flame 2013 Insider threat, Protocol level gaps BIT 9 Hack Snowden Heartbleed 2017 Targeted Attacks, Ransomware WannaCry NotPetya SWIFT breach 2018 Malware Phishing Brute Force Password Attacks Denial of Service (DOS) Man in the Middle (MITM) Rogue Software

5 What is Threatcasting? Conceptual framework for Estimative Intelligence Process for systemic planning Continuous inputs from social science, technical research, economics…

6 Data w/ an opinion Trends Technical Social Vision 2018 2028
SF Proto Threats in 2028 Future we want Future we want to avoid Social Vision 2018 2028 Disrupt Mitigate Event Recover

7 Case Study: Quantum Computing
Future Threat Reality Gates Proposed actions next 4-8 years: Flags

8 Applications & Future Work
Risk Assessments for products & services across enterprise Exercise scenario planning Operations Centers: SOC, Fusion Strategy alignment and budget forecasting

9 Questions?

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