1. NEW SOLAR MINIMUM AND THE MINI-ICE AGE OF THE 21 st CENTURY
The Sun sows again the foundation of science
By placing itself
in the center of climate change discussion
NEW SOLAR MINIMUM AND THE MINI-ICE AGE OF THE 21 st CENTURY
Ph.D.  Víctor Manuel  Velasco Herrera
Institute of Geophysics, UNAM, México

2. Using Wavelet Analysis
We show that the Global Warming is associated to: “High” solar secular activity
and
Global Cooling is associated to “Low” solar activity

3. (secular periodicity > 100-yrs)
What does mean “High” or “Low” solar secular activity?
(secular periodicity > 100-yrs)

4. Energy “DYNAMO SOLAR” (gray bars) Sunspot (continuous line)
We calculated the energy of sunspot as a direct indicator of solar activity for each solar cycle
Energy “DYNAMO SOLAR” (gray bars) Sunspot (continuous line)

5. Energy (gray bars) Sunspot (dotted line)
We calculated the power of sunspot as a direct indicator of solar activity for each solar cycle
Energy (gray bars) Sunspot (dotted line)
Power “DYNAMO SOLAR” (gray bars) Sunspot (continuous line)

6. Low Solar Secular Activity : Negative Power Anomalies
High Solar Secular Activity : Positive Power Anomalies

7. High Solar Activity (Global Warming)
11-yrs
60-yrs
120-yrs
Maunder Maximum
Modern Maximum
Dalton Maximum
wavelet power spectrum

8. Low Solar Activity (Global Cooling)
Modern Minimum
Dalton Minimum
Elsy Minimum
Maunder Minimum

9. period of the solar secular activity
Maunder minimum [ ]
MODERN MINIMUM [1890,1930]
DALTON MINIMUM (1790,1830)
ELSY MINIMUM [ ]
MINI-ICE AGES
period of the solar secular activity
period of the barycentric motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system

10. MAXIMA and MINIMA in the SOLAR SECULARES CYCLE (RECONSTRUCTION OF COSMIC RAYS USING NEURONAL NETWORK)
DALTON MINIMUM (1790,1830)
Maunder minimum [ ]
MODERN MINIMUM [1890,1930]
ELSY MINIMUM [ ]

11. Highly variable Northern Hemisphere temperatures reconstructed from low- and high-resolution proxy data. Nature, Vol. 433, No. 7026, pp , 10. February Anders Moberg, Dmitry M. Sonechkin, Karin Holmgren Nina M. Datsenko & Wibjörn Karlén
period of the solar secular activity
120-yrs(VMV-cycle)
240-yrs (de Vries or Suess cycle)
period of the barycentric motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system

12. Bard, E. , G. Raisbeck, F. Yiou, and J. Jouzel. 2000
Bard, E., G. Raisbeck, F. Yiou, and J. Jouzel Solar irradiance during the last 1200 years based on cosmogenic nuclides. TELLUS B, vol. 52 (3), pp
period of the solar secular activity
120-yrs(VMV-cycle)
240-yrs (de Vries or Suess cycle)
period of the barycentric motion of the Sun about the center of mass of the solar system

13. WAVELET COHERENCE The wavelet-squared transform coherence
is especially useful, when the two phenomena have a strong interaction [C. Torrence and P. Webster, J. Clim. 12, 2679–2690. (1999)].

14. The Wavelet Coherence spectra show the phase between the phenomena
The Wavelet Coherence spectra show the phase between the phenomena. The arrows at 0o (horizontal right) indicate that both phenomena are in phase, and the arrows at 180o (horizontal left) indicate that they are in anti-phase.
It is very important to point out that these two cases imply a linear relation between the considered phenomena; any other angles indicate that the two phenomena have a non-linear relation and a rather complex one.

15. Irradiance (gray area) Temperature (continuous line)
complex
anti-phase
phase
120-yrs(VMV-cycle)

16. Conclusions
I) The solar activity secular minima periodicity is of 120-yrs and this is the sunspot series modulator.
II ) The 120-yrs periodicity could possibly be one of the principal periodicities of magnetic solar activity.

17. III) The 120-yrs periodicity predict that the following solar secular minima, should be around yrs and yrs.
IV) Our preliminary studies of the last 2000 years show close connection between the variation of the global maxima and minima periods of secular solar activity and warming and mini ice age occurred during this period.

18. V) Such a modulation of the terrestrial temperature may bring unexpected results and consequences to the climatic change in the 21st century that may result in a mini-Ice Age caused by the decrease in solar activity that would begin in 2010 and last about years.

19. and yet the Earth is cooling….