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Topic 2, group 3: How do we best communicate the magnitude and inevitability of uncertainty in order to support policy makers in dealing with climate-related.

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Presentation on theme: "Topic 2, group 3: How do we best communicate the magnitude and inevitability of uncertainty in order to support policy makers in dealing with climate-related."— Presentation transcript:

1 Topic 2, group 3: How do we best communicate the magnitude and inevitability of uncertainty in order to support policy makers in dealing with climate-related risks? 1 1

2 Propagation of uncertainty in climate change communication
Function Sender Transmitter Receiver 2 2

3 Propagation of uncertainty in climate change communication
Social & political context (India, China, etc) Typical actor Sender Science Transmitter Media Politicians Policymakers Civil society Receiver 3 3

4 Propagation of uncertainty in climate change communication
Social & political context (India, China, etc) Sources of distortions: Ambiguity (categorial) Uncertainty (quantifyable) Opinion Sender Science „Manufactoring“ Balancing bias Fragmentation Transmitter Media Politicians Policymakers Civil society Processing capacity Belief systems Vested interests Receiver 4 After Creutzig/Markowitz 2013 4

5 Reducing uncertainty propagation
Ambiguity (categorial) Uncertainty (quantifyable) Opinion Science „Manufactoring“ Balancing bias Fragmentation Media Politicians Policymakers Civil society Processing capacity Belief systems Vested interests 5 5

6 Reducing uncertainty propagation: direct communication
Directly addressing policymakers AND civil society (information symmetry!) via open access web-based information Ambiguity (categorial) Uncertainty (quantifyable) Opinion Science „Manufactoring“ Balancing bias Fragmentation Media Politicians Policymakers Civil society Processing capacity Belief systems Vested interests 6 e.g. Kit/Lüdeke 2013 6

7 Reducing uncertainty propagation: better communication
Directly addressing policymakers AND civil society (information symmetry!) via open access web-based information Ambiguity (categorial) Uncertainty (quantifyable) Opinion Science Representation ad-apted to receiver with concrete examples Combining general statements „Manufactoring“ Balancing bias Fragmentation Media Good science journalism Politicians Policymakers Civil society Processing capacity Belief systems Vested interests 7 e.g. Kit/Lüdeke 2013 7

8 Reducing uncertainty propagation: participation
Direct involvement of stakeholders/decision makers into the science process reduces the role of scientific uncertainty as alibi for non-action Ambiguity (categorial) Uncertainty (quantifyable) Opinion Science Representation ad-apted to receiver with concrete examples Combining general statements „Manufactoring“ Balancing bias Fragmentation Media Good science journalism Politicians Policymakers Civil society Processing capacity Belief systems Vested interests 8 e.g. Aicher/Beck 2013 8

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