1. John Husing, Ph.D. Economics & Politics, Inc. Chief Economist, IEEP
So. California Prosperity . . .
John Husing, Ph.D.
Economics & Politics, Inc.
Chief Economist, IEEP

2. U.S. Jobs Still Setting Records

3. Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time
17.9%
Add Potential Workers: Given Up Or Part Time
10.1%
7.5%
3.9%

4. Inflation Worry
3.6%
1.9%

5. 2 More Short Term Rate Increases
Interest Rates:
2 More Short Term Rate Increases
4.48%
2.69%

6. Yield Curve: Potential Recession Predictor
Recession: Likelihood Rising
2 Year to 10 Year
0.18%

8. California Job Gains/Losses

9. Southern California

10. 9 Southern County Economy Gaining Strength!
Lost -759,000 Jobs e
Add +1,540,210 Jobs
8.4% Above 2007 Level

11. Job Quality: Split

12. Unemployment Rates

13. Gold Mine Theory
Secondary Tier
Primary Tier

14. Industrial Market

15. Logistics

16. E-Commerce
14.5%

17. Port Container Volumes Record Levels

18. Logistics Powerful Job Growth
11.7% of New Jobs

19. Manufacturing

20. U.S./CA Manufacturing Job Growth

21. CA Electrical Cost
+74.6%
+83.5%
+135.4%

22. Natural Gas A Bargain

23. Marijuana?

24. Manufacturing Jobs
0.4% of Job Growth

25. Construction Locations

26. Net Industrial Absorption
20.2 million

27. Industrial Rates & Vacancies
Lease Rates Per Square Foot Per Month, Sep-2018
Central Valley $ %
Inland Empire $ %
Ventura $ %
Los Angeles $ %
Orange $ %
San Diego $ %
Source: CB Richard Ellis

28. Residential Market

29. Sales Volumes, First Nine Months
New Homes
Resale
Total
15,709
123,772
139,481
14,641
131,443
146,084
1,068
-7,671
-6,093
7.3%
-5.8%
-4.5%
2018
2017
Change
% Chg.

30. Residential Prices

31. Share of Local Population Can Afford the Median SFR Home

32. Construction Jobs
10.3% of Job Growth

33. Office Market

34. Health Care

35. Health Care Jobs: Continuous Growth
10.8% of Job Growth

36. ACA Impact
Health Care Demand & Quality of Life
-60% Drop in Uninsured

37. High Paying Sectors

38. Professionals & Mgmt. , Higher Ed
Professionals & Mgmt., Higher Ed., Mining Utilities, Information & Government Group Slowly Adding Jobs
12.6% of Growth

39. BA or Higher, 2017

40. Net Office Space Absorption, 2018 ytd

41. Office Rates & Vacancies
Lease Rates Per Square Foot Per Month, Sep-2018
Central Valley $ %
Inland Empire $ %
Ventura $ %
Orange $ %
San Diego $ %
Los Angeles $ %
Source: CB Richard Ellis

42. Office Space Construction, Sept.-2018
Market Hurt by E-Commerce, Low Govt Revenues

43. Retail Market

44. Low Paying Job Growth Retail, Consumer & Bus
Low Paying Job Growth Retail, Consumer & Bus. Services, Hotel, Eat & Drink Amusement, Agriculture, Employment Agency
44.6% of Job Growth

45. Net Retail Space Absorption

46. Retail Lease Rates & Vacancies
Lease Rates Per Square Foot Per Month, Sep-2018
Inland Empire $ %
Ventura $ %
Orange $ %
San Diego $ %
Los Angeles $ %
Source: CB Richard Ellis

47. Retail Space Under Construction

48. Summary U.S. Economy Humming Recession in 2020 A Growing Possibility
Southern California Economy 8.4% In Jobs Above 2007
Industrial Real Estate Soaring … Particularly Inland
Resident Real Estate Restrained By Regulation
Office Real Estate Moderate Performance E-Commerce an Issue
Retail Real Estate Under Strain By E-Commerce Except Restaurants