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Standard Motor Products
Jack Lindblad Jiayue (Lydia) Li Quintus Yang 12/12/2017
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Industry Overview and Analysis Company Overview Financial Analysis
Agenda Selection Criteria Industry Overview and Analysis Company Overview Financial Analysis Comparable Valuation DCF Valuation Recommendation
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Selection Criteria EBITDA and Greenblatt Ratio Small Company
Expertise in two product categories Favorable industry demographics Strong stock price performance Emphasize on shareholder return
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Industry Analysis
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Industry Overview PORTER’S FIVE FORCES Industry Outlook 2025 – $357B
– Slow & steady revenue growth • 2-3% per year – Vehicles have become increasingly complex – Majority Growth in DIFM segment Consists of Large Number of diverse manufacturers varying in product specialization and price Key to succeed in this industry: Compete on the basis of product, quality, price and order fill rate PORTER’S FIVE FORCES Competitive Rivalry HIGH Threat of New Entrants Moderate Bargaining Power of Customers Threat of Substitute Products Low Bargaining Power of Suppliers Source: SMP Investor Presentation
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Macroeconomic Factors
Aging Vehicle Population Increasing Miles Driven Increasing Vehicle Numbers High Demand from End Market Source: United States Department of Transportation and Company Presentation
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Company Analysis
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Technical Analysis Missed Q2 EPS amount, beat the revenue amount
Weak Q3 performance compared to 2016 results Source: Bigcharts.com and seeking alpha
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Company Introduction Overview Financial Snapshot Founded in 1919 Headquartered in Long Island City, New York Went Public on NYSE in 1978 4100 Employees worldwide 13 Manufacturing Plants • 5 Distribution Centers • 7 Offices Independent manufacturer and distributor of replacement parts for motor vehicles in the automotive aftermarket industry Current Stock Price: $44 (12/8/2017) 52 Week Price Range: $40.56-$55.37 Market Cap: $995 million Trailing P/E Multiple: 18.63x Forward P/E Multiple: 13.37x Enterprise Value: $1.04 billion TEV/EBITDA: 7.1X 2016 Revenue: $1.06 billion ROE: 13.7% Facility Base Product Category Engine Management • Ignition Products • Emissions Products • Fuel Delivery • Vehicle Electronics • Wire & Cable Temperature Control • A/C Compressors • Other A/C System Components • Engine Cooling Products • Blower & Radiator Fan Motors • Window Lift Motors Source: Company Website, 10-K and Yahoo Finance
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Products Engine Management Temperature Control
Competitive Advantage: best-in-class, full-line, full-service supplier of premium products to the engine management and temperature control markets. Source: company product catalogue, 10-K and presentation
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Value Chain Analysis 20% 18% 17% 11% Warehouse Distributors
Suppliers SMP Customers Brass Electronic components Copper Steel magnets Aluminum coils Chemicals Warehouse Distributors Large Retailers Export Customer OE/OES Customer Manufacture Remanufacture Purchase Component and Cores Low Cost Manufactures Customer %Revenue 20% 18% 17% 11%
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Management Team and Shareholder
Patrick McClymont New Board Director Former Partner from Goldman Sachs Head of Global Transportation & Infrastructure Group CFO of IMAX CFO of Southeby’s Long time management experience Great education background Institutional Shareholder % Ownership BlackRock,Inc. 11.31 FMR LLC 9.28 Royce & Associates, LP 9.14 Dimensional Fund Advisors L.P. 7.09 The Vanguard Group, Inc. 4.8 Source: company presentation and Capital IQ
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Strategy 1: Increased in-house manufacturing
Engineering resources • 10 fully equipped design & development centers • 200 engineers, techs & designers – up 30% from 2013 Capital spending • 80% of capital budget goes to new part development for manufacture Acquisitions and Joint Ventures • Great “shortcut” for new technologies • 12/1/2017 Forms a Joint Venture with Foshan Guangdong Automotive Air Conditioning Co., Ltd. (a China-based manufacturer of air conditioning compressors for the automotive aftermarket and the Chinese Original Equipment market) 2014 forms a joint venture with Gwo Yng Enterprise Co., Ltd. (a basic manufacturer of air conditioning accumulators, filter driers, hose assemblies, and switches for the automotive aftermarket, original equipment and original equipment service markets) Source: investor presentation and company website
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Strategy 2: Cost Reductions
Relocating the Manufacturing Process Global Sourcing Initiative Financial Results: Increased Operating Margin Source: 10-K and company presentation
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Strategy 3: Strategic Acquisitions
Acquisitions: Bolt-on: acquire competitors or related line and merge it into own operation Vertical integration: acquire suppliers and become a manufacturer of the product Rational -Demonstrable and measurable synergies with minimal risk -Contributes to other strategic objectives • Increased manufacturing • Low-cost manufacturing -Provide enhanced value to our customers • Helps with Full-Line, Full-Service model • Economies of scale allows further investment • Helps address part complexity / SKU proliferation headwind Recent Acquisitions: 2016 General Cable’s North American automotive ignition wire business (ignition wire offering) 2014 Acquired the assets of Pensacola Fuel Injection's diesel remanufacturing. 2014 Acquired the assets of Annex Manufacturing, a distributer of a variety of temperature control products for the automotive aftermarket. 2013 Acquired an equity position in Orange Electronics for censor manufacturing 2012 Acquired CompressorWorks Inc for automotive compressor 2011 Acquired BLD products engine control business Source: 10-K and company website
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SWOT Analysis Strengths Weaknesses Opportunities Threats
Strong brand image Deep experience in the selected product category Operational efficiency/ low cost Strong cash flow High concentration of customers Seasonality Currency exchange rate Asbestos Liability Opportunities Threats Industry trend – increasing complex vehicles Acquisitions-expanding customer base Expand into OES market Low priced product from Asia Warranty-related returns or product recall Unable to follow the technology trend Trade policy with Mexico and China
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Financial Analysis
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Greenblatt Return on Capital
Financial Analysis Return on Equity Greenblatt Return on Capital Operating Margin Interest Burden Tax Burden Asset Turnover Leverage Ratio ROE 9.5% 1.4x 1.7x 13.7% × = Source: Annual Reports DuPont Analysis (FY16) 98.4% 61.3%
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Comparable/Peer Selection
EV($mm) Business Description Aftermarket Dorman, Inc. $2,106 Dorman Products, Inc. supplies automotive replacement parts, automotive hardware, brake products, and household hardware to the automotive aftermarket and mass merchandise markets 100% MPAA $516 Motor Parts of America, Inc. manufactures, remanufactures, and distributes automotive aftermarket parts. Stoneridge, Inc. $724 Stoneridge, Inc. designs and manufactures engineered electrical and electronic components, modules, and systems. It operates through three segments: Control Devices, Electronics, and PST. 15% BorgWarner, Inc. $13,494 BorgWarner Inc. provides solutions for combustion, hybrid, and electric vehicles worldwide. The company operates through two segments, Engine and Drivetrain. 6% Dana Incorporated, Inc. $6,093 Dana Incorporated manufactures and sells driveline, sealing, and thermal-management products for vehicle manufacturers in North America, Europe, South America, and the Asia Pacific. Aftermarket customers purchase products from all Dana business units, View as significant growth opportunity Source: Company’s 2016 Annual Report/Investor Presentation Source: Company’s 2016 Annual Report/Investor Presentation
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Financial Analysis Sales Growth(%) Days Inventory
Cash Conversion Cycle Current Ratio Source: Company’s SEC Filings
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Financial Analysis Gross Margin (%) EBITDA(%)
Greenblatt Earnings Yield Greenblatt Return on Capital Source: Company’s SEC Filings
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Valuation
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Comparable Valuation LTM EV/EBITDA LTM EV/EBITDA 8.9x LTM EBITDA 121
75th percentile 10.5x 7.7x Mean 9.7x 7.4x Median 9.9x 7.1x 25th Percentile 8.9x 6.6x SMP, Inc. NA LTM EV/EBITDA 8.9x LTM EBITDA 121 EV 1,075 Net Debt 48 Equity Value 1,027 Shares Outstanding 23 Share Price $45.40 LTM EV/EBITDA 9.7x LTM EBITDA 121 EV 1,176 Net Debt 48 Equity Value 1,128 Shares Outstanding 23 Share Price $49.89 Source: Company Financial Statements, Capital IQ Estimates
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DCF – Key Assumptions Revenues Expenses 2012 A 2013 A 2014 A 2015 A
Engine Management (% growth) 5.8% 6.9% -0.3% -1.6% 9.7% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% Temperature Control 15% -2.3% -1.3% 2.1% 7.3% 1.0% 5.5% -2.0% 2.5% 1.5% Total Revenue 8.5% 3.7% -0.9% 8.9% 4.6% 3.6% 1.7% 1.9% Expenses 2012 A 2013 A 2014 A 2015 A 2016 A 2017 P 2018 P 2019 P 2020 P 2021 P COGS (% of revenue) -72.6% -70.5% -71.1% -69.5% -68.5% -67.5% SG&A -19.8% -20.5% -19.7% -21.2% -20.9% -19.5% -19.0% -18.0%
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Recommendations
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Low Growth Outlook Recommendation Low Cost Strategies
Current: $ 44 Base: $ 44.6 Comps: $ Low Cost Strategies Competitive Industry Low Growth Outlook Add to Watch list
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