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Pacific Northwest Resource Adequacy Assessment
Steering Committee Meeting January 29, 2010
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Outline Minimum Adequacy Standard Thresholds Implementation Plan
Current Assessment Current Actions Comparison to Last Assessment January 29, 2010
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Minimum Adequacy Thresholds
Energy – Annual Load/Resource Balance* Physical = 0 MWa Economic = ??? Capacity – Sustained-Peak Reserve Margin* Physical Winter = 23% Physical Summer = 24% Economic = ??? *As defined in the Adequacy Standard January 29, 2010
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Implementation Plan Green Status Yellow Alert Red Alert
Proceed with normal planning activities Compare results with other regional reports Yellow Alert Regional report Forum review of data and assumptions Red Alert Regional conference Regional review of data and assumptions Identify inadequate utilities January 29, 2010
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Assessing Adequacy Status
> Econ < Econ > Phys 3 Years Out < Phys > Econ < Econ >Phys 5 Years Out < Phys January 29, 2010
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Annual Energy Load/Resource Balance
January 29, 2010
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January Sustained-Peaking Capacity Reserve Margin
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July Sustained-Peaking Capacity Reserve Margin
January 29, 2010
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Assessing the Adequacy Status (Year when threshold is violated)
Energy January Capacity July Capacity January 29, 2010
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Assessing Adequacy Status
> Econ < Econ > Phys 3 Years Out < Phys > Econ < Econ >Phys 5 Years Out < Phys July Capacity Violation 5 Years Out = Yellow Alert January 29, 2010
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Current Actions RPS legislation is pushing wind development
Utilities are actively pursuing new resource acquisition Power plan resources maintain July capacity adequacy through 2029 (on average) Forum will review data and methodology January 29, 2010
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2010 vs. 2008 Assessment Annual Energy
L/R Bal (MWa) 3-Years Out 5-Years Out Min ‘08 Assessment (2013) 2,701 1,996 ‘10 Assessment (2015) 4,651 3,958 Difference 1,950 1,962 January 29, 2010
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Annual Energy Assumptions 5-Years Out
Summary ‘08 Assessment (2013) ‘10 Assessment (2015) Diff Net Demand 23508 22484 -1024 Net Resources 25504 26442 938 L/R Balance 1996 3958 1962 January 29, 2010
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2010 vs. 2008 Assessment January Capacity
Sustained-Peaking Reserve Margin 3-Yrs Out 5-Yrs Out Min ’08 Assessment (2013) 46% 40% 23% ’10 Assessment (2015) 50% 47% Difference 4% 7% January 29, 2010
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January Sustained-Peak Assumptions 5-Years Out
Summary ‘08 Assessment (2013) ‘10 Assessment (2015) Diff Net Demand 29972 29473 -499 Net Resources 41842 43300 1458 Reserve Margin 40% 47% +7% January 29, 2010
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2010 vs. 2008 Assessment July Capacity
Sustained-Peaking Reserve Margin 3-Yrs Out 5-Yrs Out Min ’08 Assessment (2013) 34% 29% 24% ’10 Assessment (2015) 27% Difference -7% -5% January 29, 2010
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July Sustained-Peak Assumptions 5-Years Out
Summary ‘08 Assessment (2013) ‘10 Assessment (2015) Diff Net Demand 27075 29361 2286 Net Resources 35297 36379 1082 Reserve Margin 29% 24% -5% January 29, 2010
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