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Charles M. Wojnarski, MD, Lars G. Svensson, MD, PhD, Eric E

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1 Aortic Dissection in Patients With Bicuspid Aortic Valve–Associated Aneurysms 
Charles M. Wojnarski, MD, Lars G. Svensson, MD, PhD, Eric E. Roselli, MD, Jay J. Idrees, MD, Ashley M. Lowry, MS, John Ehrlinger, PhD, Gösta B. Pettersson, MD, PhD, A. Marc Gillinov, MD, Douglas R. Johnston, MD, Edward G. Soltesz, MD, MPH, Jose L. Navia, MD, Donald F. Hammer, MD, Brian Griffin, MD, Maran Thamilarasan, MD, Vidyasagar Kalahasti, MD, Joseph F. Sabik, MD, Eugene H. Blackstone, MD, Bruce W. Lytle, MD  The Annals of Thoracic Surgery  Volume 100, Issue 5, Pages (November 2015) DOI: /j.athoracsur Copyright © 2015 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

2 Fig 1 Each point represents the risk-adjusted probability of immediate dissection. Curves are the smoothed relationships. Loess smooth curve indicates the trend of increased risk with diameter. (A) Sinus diameter (cm). (B) Ascending diameter (cm). (C) Classification receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for ascending aortic dissection by diameter (cm). (D) Sinus cross-sectional area to height ratio (cm2/m). (E) Ascending cross-sectional area to height ratio (cm2/m). (F) Classification ROC curve for ascending aortic dissection by cross-sectional area-to-height ratio. (AUC = area under the curve; FPR = false prediction rate; TPR = true prediction rate.) The Annals of Thoracic Surgery  , DOI: ( /j.athoracsur ) Copyright © 2015 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

3 Fig 2 Risk of aortic intervention among 380 surveillance patients. (A) Years from index computed tomographic scan. Each symbol represents an aortic operation positioned on the vertical axis by the Kaplan-Meier estimator, and vertical bars are confidence limits equivalent to ± 1 standard error (SE). Solid line is parametric risk of aortic intervention estimate enclosed within dashed 68% confidence band equivalent to ± 1 SE. (B) Predicted risk at 1 (blue), 5 (green), and 10 (red) years by age. Solid lines are parametric risk of aortic intervention estimates enclosed within dashed 68% confidence band equivalent to ± 1 SE. This nomogram is based on multivariable equation in Table 3. Nomogram of risk is for patient with 5.0-cm ascending aorta diameter (z value = 12), date of presentation of July 2008, and body surface area of 2.1 m2. (C) Predicted risk at 1 (blue), 5 (green), and 10 (red) years by ascending aorta diameter. Solid lines are parametric estimates of risk of aortic intervention estimates enclosed within dashed 68% confidence bands equivalent to ± 1 SE. This nomogram is based on multivariable equation in Table 3. Risk of aortic intervention is for 55-year-old patient with the same characteristics noted in B. The Annals of Thoracic Surgery  , DOI: ( /j.athoracsur ) Copyright © 2015 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

4 Fig 3 Instantaneous risk of aortic intervention (hazard function). Solid line is parametric hazard estimate enclosed within dashed 68% confidence band equivalent to ± 1 standard error. (CT = computed tomography.) The Annals of Thoracic Surgery  , DOI: ( /j.athoracsur ) Copyright © 2015 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

5 Figure E1 The Annals of Thoracic Surgery  , DOI: ( /j.athoracsur ) Copyright © 2015 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

6 Figure E2 The Annals of Thoracic Surgery  , DOI: ( /j.athoracsur ) Copyright © 2015 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions

7 Figure E3 The Annals of Thoracic Surgery  , DOI: ( /j.athoracsur ) Copyright © 2015 The Society of Thoracic Surgeons Terms and Conditions


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