1. Infrastructure Needs and Our Electric Grid for the 21st Century
Building The Backbone of Energy Efficiency:
New England’s Competitiveness, Innovation and Sustainability in the 21st Century
Infrastructure Needs and Our Electric Grid for the 21st Century
William Zarakas
Principal, The Brattle Group
June 2, 2015
Federal Reserve Bank of Boston

2. Electricity Infrastructure
A Few Evolving Trends
Traditionally defined lines of demarcation for utility infrastructure are becoming increasingly blurred, mainly by energy resources located in the distribution system
Demand-side resources, including energy efficiency, are increasingly being considered as a resource to defer growth-related investments / upgrades to electric distribution infrastructure
The cost of power from distributed generating resources is declining, but the scale and scope effects associated with power produced from comparable centralized resources are typically less expensive on a wholesale basis

3. Distributed Energy Resources
Distributed Generation (PV and other)
Energy Efficiency
Demand Response
Storage
May Defer T&D Expansion
May Enhance System Resilience
Scale < 1 0 MW
Near Point of Use
Some directly quantifiable (commercial); most are less observable (behind the meter)
From system planning perspective, frequently considered negative load, but…
…Some jurisdictions have initiated proceedings aimed at developing DER into controllable resources, via the utility functioning as a “platform” (e.g., New York REV)

4. NYISO Coincident Peak Forecast
Near Term Impacts
Evolution of DER as a major power resource will not happen instantaneously
Largest DER impact expected to be from energy efficiency
Points to the continued importance of centralized resources
Treated as “NegaWatts”
NYISO Coincident Peak Forecast
Portions may be considered “controllable” resources
Source: NYISO 2015 “Gold Book”; NYPSC Generic Environmental Impact Statement (GEIS for REV and CEF, 2015)

5. Infrastructure Needs and Our Electric Grid for the 21st Century
New England Electricity Infrastructure
Pipeline expansion to meet needs of NG CCs
Fuel diversity in generating resources
Role of imports
Distribution infrastructure and the integration of DERs, starting with energy efficiency
28 GW peak; 31 GW installed capacity
Majority of new capacity: NG CC
500 MW solar; 800 MW wind; solar expected to increase 3x and wind to increase 5X in next 10 years
+15% net energy imports (Quebec, New Brunswick + New York)
~50% energy from natural gas CC units; ~6% from coal/oil
Retirements expected: oil/coal
Limitations in electric transmission (wind) and NG pipelines
Concerns re: the cost of upgrading distribution infrastructure and resilience enhancements

6. Panel Discussion
Infrastructure Needs and Our Electric Grid for the 21st Century
Pipeline expansion to meet needs of NG CCs
Fuel diversity in generating resources
Role of imports
Distribution infrastructure and the integration of DERs, starting with energy efficiency