1. PUBLIC OPINION POLL ON DRAFT CONSTITUTION
19th to 21st January 2010
Prepared by: Synovate Kenya
Release date: 21st January 2010

2. PUBLIC OPINION ON THE SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT KENYANS WANT

3. In the proposed constitution which of the following leadership systems do you prefer to have? The options provided to respondents were: Members of parliament vote for a person from the largest party in parliament to be the PM, head of government and leader of the country, and is accountable to parliament (Pure Parliamentary System) You directly vote for a president who becomes both the head of state and government (head of country) and whose powers are checked by other institutions (Pure Presidential system) You directly vote for a president who becomes both the head of state, and who then appoints the leader of the largest party in parliament to be the PM and head of government such that they share executive powers (Hybrid System)

4. KENYANS HAVE THEIR SAY ON THE SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT THEY WANT
2010 opens with divided views on the contents of the Harmonised draft constitution. Systems of government take an important position in this debate. While political parties take hardline positions on the most effective system of government, the curtains are not far from closing down, as the referendum approaches.
But these are party positions, Kenyans haven't concluded yet. To find out what they are thinking though, as it always does, Synovate (formerly Steadman) set out to ask public opinion. Interviewing 2000 adult Kenyans nationally, in a representative survey, the findings are interesting…..

5. In the proposed constitution which of the following leadership systems do you prefer to have? By Total
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

6. In the proposed constitution which of the following leadership systems do you prefer to have? By Province
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

7. In the proposed constitution which of the following leadership systems do you prefer to have? By Settings
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

8. In the proposed constitution which of the following leadership systems do you prefer to have? By Education level
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

9. In the proposed constitution which of the following leadership systems do you prefer to have? By Political Party Affiliation
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

10. Are you familiar with the contents of the Harmonised draft constitution? By Total
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

11. Would you vote in favour or against the Harmonised draft constitution if a referendum is held? By Total
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

12. Would you vote in favour or against the Harmonised draft constitution if a referendum is held? By Province
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

13. Would you vote in favour or against the Harmonised draft constitution if a referendum is held? By Settings
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

14. Would you vote in favour or against the Harmonised draft constitution if a referendum is held? By Education level and Political Party Affiliation
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

15. In your opinion, should the size of constituency be based on Population size or geographical size? By Total
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

16. In your opinion, should the size of constituency be based on Population size or geographical size? By Setting
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

17. In your opinion, should the size of constituency be based on Population size or geographical size? By Education level and Political Party Affiliation
Base: n=2000 (All Respondents)

18. POLL METHODOLOGY
The target population for this survey was all Kenyan adults aged 18 and above (voting age). A sample size of 2,000 respondents was drawn, using a 35:65 urban to rural ratio. The margin of error attributed to sampling and other random effects of this poll’s sample size is +/- 2.2 % margin at 95% confidence level. This sample size is large enough to make reliable estimates on the target population opinion. The fieldwork for this survey was conducted between 19th and 21st January 2010.
Data were collected through Computer Assisted Telephone Interviewing (CATI). CATI is a call-centre approach towards survey interviewing, and consists of two systems: (1) a computer system (both hardware and software) for administering electronic questionnaires, and (2) a telephone system for contacting the respondents. The advantage of this methodology is that it is fast and accurate with responses entered into computers as the phone interviews were being conducted.

19. POLL METHODOLOGY…Continued
To administer SPEC survey on CATI, a database of over 50,000 Kenyans aged 18+ was used. This database has been accumulated over time by Steadman Synovate (and is continuing to be augmented). In this database, comprising the sampling frame, respondent information such as demographics and geographical location was collected, including ownership of/access to mobile phones, allowing those respondents to be contacted by this (CATI) method. To achieve the sample for this opinion polls, a randomized multi-stage stratified design using probability proportional to size (PPS) on this database was used. Doing this ensured geographical representation, i.e., explicitly in terms of province and setting (urban/rural) to match the sample structure of previous polls and implicitly reflecting the distribution of population over Kenya’s districts.
During the interview process, those who were not reached at the first attempt (either because the number was busy or the call did not go through), automatic appointments/call backs were programmed by the CATI software. In the event that no contact was made after 5 attempts on different days and times, this number was substituted.

20. POLL METHODOLOGY …Continued (II)
The data collection involved the use of an electronic semi-structured questionnaire having both open and closed-ended questions. The survey questions were structured so as to allow for a broad range of opinion-options, including “no opinion.” This eliminates bias in the way the questions are asked, and responses captured.
Strict quality control measures for data collection were applied. The CATI Supervisors made a minimum of 15% back-checks to ascertain whether the calls were actually made and if the responses given were correct.

21. For further details Please contact:
George Waititu
Tel:
Mobile:

22. Thank You For Your Attention. Our Curiosity Is All Yours.
© Synovate 2008