1. Pupil Transition and Migration

2.     Maths Attainment EYFS (at least expected level)
Attainment has risen in the last three years (+13 ppts to 68.6%)
Gap to national has narrowed slightly (from 10.6 to 7.2 ppts)
LA is still ranked poorly (140th in 2015)
KS1 (level 2 or higher)
Attainment has risen in the last four years (+3 ppts to 89%)
Gap to national is currently the lowest it’s been (3 ppts)
LA is still ranked poorly (146th in 2015)
 KS2 (level 4 or higher)
Attainment has risen in the last three years (+5 ppts to 86%)
Gap to national has narrowed (3 to 1 ppts)
LA rank has improved (103rd in 2015, was 134th)
KS4 (GCSE grade C or higher)
Attainment has dropped in the last four years (-7 ppts to 54%)
Gap to national is widest it’s been in at least four years (7 to 14 ppts)
LA is ranked poorly (150th in 2015)  
Maths attainment:
Nottingham pupils start at a very low base compared to national.
Pupils make good levels of progress towards the end of KS2, which is reflected in the attainment levels
Attainment then plummets at KS4 

3.     English Attainment EYFS (Literacy, at least expected level)
Attainment has risen in the last three years (+14.6 ppts to 62.3%)
Gap to national has nearly halved (from 13 to 7.8 ppts)
LA is still ranked poorly (joint 143rd in 2015)
KS1 (Reading, level 2 or higher)
Attainment has risen in the last four years (+4 ppts to 86%)
Gap to national is currently the lowest it’s been (4 ppts) in 5 years
LA is still ranked poorly (146th in 2015)
 KS2 (Reading, level 4 or higher)
Attainment has risen in the last four years (+3 ppts to 86%)
Gap to national has not improved (still 4 ppts)
LA rank has deteriorated (141st in 2015, was 126th in 2013)
KS4 (GCSE English, grade C or higher)
Attainment has increased in the last four years (+1 ppts to 56%) but dropped compared to 2014 (-3 ppts)
Gap to national is widest it’s been in at least four years (11 to 14 ppts)
LA is ranked poorly (150th in 2015)  
Again Nottingham pupils start from a low base compared to national
Things improve slightly at KS1, year-on-year improvements, a closing gap to national over time
Things worsen at KS2, gap to national is erratic, ranking deteriorates
KS4 attainment is particularly poor, gap to national widening, year-on-year attainment is poor 

4. KS2 Breakdown
(proportion of pupils achieving level 4+ in 2015)
Bars = Nottingham
Lines = National
This slide shows a breakdown of KS2 attainment, for Reading, Writing and GPS (grammar, punctuation, spelling).
The bars represent the Nottingham position for each year, then lines represent the national position for the same year
Looking at this data we can see that Nottingham has recorded increases in all subjects over the three years in question, although Reading just repeated attainment levels in 2015
The national position saw similar or better increases in all three subjects, which means that the position between Nottingham and National has seen little clear improvement over time
All 3 subjects have recorded increases over the last 3 years
National position has recorded similar or better improvements
Gap between Nottingham and National position has seen little clear improvement

5. Pupil Migration 25% of these pupils ‘left’ 2,968 pupils KS2 (2010) 78%
A ¼ of all KS2 pupils did not go to take KS4 in the City, 753 pupils
25% of these pupils ‘left’
(575)
2,968 pupils KS2 (2010)
412 pupils took KS4 in the City but not KS2, of those with matched PA 83% had Middle/High PA
At least 146 pupils with Middle/High PA ‘joined’
78%
Middle/High PA
(2,269)
Of the original cohort of pupils who took KS2 in Nottingham in 2010 – 78% classed as having middle or high prior attainment
A quarter of all of these pupils did not go on to take KS4 in Nottingham in 2015 – ‘Leavers’, this number includes a quarter of all pupils with middle or high prior attainment
412 pupils took KS4 in 2015 who did not take KS2 in Nottingham – ‘Joiners’, of these where data could be matched, 146 pupils had middle or high prior attainment
The end result of these ‘Leavers’ and ‘Joiners’ is Nottingham ending up with a reduced proportion of pupils with middle or high prior attainment – 75%, 8 percentage points below the national position of 83%
Original cohort for 2015 KS4 results
75% of
final cohort had Middle/High PA
Nationally this proportion is 83%

6. Pupil Conversion KS2 – KS4
Proportion of pupils achieving GCSE English and Maths grade A*-C in 2015 based upon prior attainment
Bars = Nottingham
Lines = National
This slide reviews pupil conversion – the proportions of pupils achieving GCSE English and Maths grade A*-C based upon their prior attainment grouping
Compared to national, Nottingham records lower proportions of pupils achieving A-C in EM across all three prior attainment bands.
Proportionately the gap is widest for pupils with middle prior attainment.
Combining those pupils with middle or high prior attainment, just under 60% of Nottingham’s pupils achieved A-C in EM compared to over 70% for the national position
It would appear that we are failing to convert our pupils with middle or high prior attainment at KS2 to good grades at KS4
Nottingham records lower proportions of pupils achieving EM A-C than national for all three prior attainment groups
Of concern, Nottingham’s pupils with Middle PA are nearly 25% less likely to achieve EM A-C compared to national
Nearly 60% of Nottingham pupils with Middle or High PA achieve EM A-C, nationally this is over 70%

7. Data Training & Consultancy Manager
Gillian Heath
Data Training & Consultancy Manager
Nottingham City Council, Loxley House, Station Street, Nottingham, NG2 3NG