1. Sea Breeze Initiated Thunderstorms Relating to Convective Available Potential Energy (CAPE) and Convective Inhibition (CINH)
Javier Rosa Department of Marine and Environmental Systems Florida Institute of Technology Melbourne, Florida July 16, 2008

2. Overview What is the purpose for this project? What is CAPE/CINH?
Why look at CAPE/CINH?
How are values gathered?
Where is area of focus for this project?
Is there a threshold for CAPE in thunderstorms?

3. Purpose
Find a threshold for CAPE values in thunderstorms initiated by the sea breeze
Provide ability to forecast sea breeze thunderstorms using CAPE as a predictor

4. What is CAPE/CINH? CAPE is the integrated area of positive buoyancy
CINH is the integrated area of negative buoyancy
CAPE = Instability
CINH = Stability

5. Why look at CAPE/CINH?
CAPE is needed for thunderstorm development (accelerating motion)
CINH can limit thunderstorm initiation (decelerating motion)
Previous study indicated threshold values for CAPE (Solomon, R., and M. Baker, 1994)

6. Sounding Data Launched 3 times a day (5 AM, 11 AM, 5PM)
CAPE = Positive Buoyancy
CINH = Negative Buoyancy
Most Unstable parcel was used for project
CAPE
CINH

7. North American Mesoscale (NAM) Forecast Model
NAM is an atmospheric prediction model
NAM forecast runs every 6 hours with 3 hour forecast intervals up to 84 hours for each run
12 km resolution
1600
1700
1800
1900
2000
2100
2200
2300
2400
2500

8. Area of Study
The area of study includes the Cape Canaveral region and its surrounding areas

9. Methods
Locate sea breeze thunderstorms using Melbourne radar reflectivity
Get CAPE and CINH values using sounding data and NAM forecast model

15. Sea Breeze Boundary

16. Thunderstorm Initiation

17. Thunderstorm Initiation

18. Additional Thunderstorm Initiation

19. More Storm Initiation

20. CAPE Statistics Using NAM Forecast Model
Not statistically different
Cannot differentiate between yes and no cases

21. CAPE Statistics Using Sounding Data
Not statistically different
Cannot differentiate between yes and no cases

22. CINH Statistics Using Sounding Data
Not statistically different
Cannot differentiate between yes and no cases

23. Conclusion
CAPE is not a good predictor of sea breeze thunderstorms based on data set
CINH was not a factor in limiting thunderstorm initiation

24. Any Questions/Comments?
Takashi Kida

25. References
Wilson, J.W., and D.L. Megenhardt, 1997: Thunderstorm Initiation, Organization, and Lifetime Associated with Florida Boundary Layer Convergence Lines. Mon. Wea. Rev., 125, 1507–1525.
Weisman, M. L., and J. B. Klemp, 1982: The dependence of numerically simulated convective storms on vertical wind shear and buoyancy. Mon. Wea. Rev., 110, 504–520.
Solomon, R., and M. Baker, 1994: Electrification of New Mexico Thunderstorms. /Mon. Wea. Rev./, *122*, 1878–1886.