1. Updated Enrollment Projections for High School Seats
Career Center Working Group
Meeting # 6: March 19, 2018
Updated Enrollment Projections for High School Seats
Lisa Stengle, Executive Director, Planning & Evaluation, APS
Meeting purpose: to inform LRPC of staff recommendations in response to the County Board charge
Staff will be providing similar briefings to County Board members in early October
Staff can accept any feedback LRPC provides and take it into consideration as these recommendations/products are finalized

2. Updated APS enrollment projections
Outline
Updated APS enrollment projections
Options on timing of high school seats
What does this mean for the Career Center?
Career Center Working Group

3. Improvements to Projections
Changes to the Projections:
APS has been working closely with Arlington County Government (ACG) to align the population forecasts with the APS enrollment projection process. As of 2018, APS has incorporated the following ACG data/resources:
Housing Unit Database
Housing Unit Forecast
Timeline of Residential Construction
Estimation of Long-Term Births
In addition, Spring 2018 APS projections include several other updates:
High School boundary changes
Adjustments to the feeder pattern of rising 9th graders
Actual sibling transfers
Career Center Working Group

4. Projected growth = 2,500 students (or 37%) by 2026
Current (2017) 10-year Projections for Grades 9-12
Projected growth = 2,500 students (or 37%) by 2026
Actual 2017 Enrollment
Projected Enrollment
Career Center Working Group

5. Comparison of Current (2017) to 2016 Projections
Actual 2017 Enrollment
Current (2017) Projected Enrollment
2016 Projected Enrollment
Career Center Working Group

6. Comparison of Current (2017) to 2016 Projections
enrollment is lower than projected last fall, by approx. 400 students
Actual 2017 Enrollment
Current (2017) Projected Enrollment
2016 Projected Enrollment
Career Center Working Group

7. Comparison assumes permanent seats at current class size levels
Comparison of Current Projections to Permanent Seats *
Internal modifications keep the number of high school seats ahead of growth
Actual 2017 Enrollment
Current (2017) Projected Enrollment
Permanent Seats
+ 310 seats at Yorktown; seats at Arlington Tech
+ 52 seats at Wilson; seats at Arlington Tech
+ 300 seats at Wakefield
Comparison assumes permanent seats at current class size levels
Career Center Working Group

8. Comparison of Current Projections to Permanent Seats *
Additional capacity keeps the number of high school seats ahead of growth through 2025
(48)
Actual Enrollment
Current (2017) Projected Enrollment
Permanent Seats
+ 310 seats at Yorktown; seats at Arlington Tech
+ 52 seats at Wilson; seats at Arlington Tech
+ 600 seats at Ed Center *
+ 800 seats at Career Center *
+ 300 seats at Wakefield
* Comparison assumes permanent seats at current class size levels and the maximum number of seats at the Ed. Center & Career Center
Career Center Working Group

9. Comparison of Current Projections to Permanent Seats *
In 2022, high school enrollment is manageable before adding in the 800+ seats at the Career Center
Actual 2017 Enrollment
Current (2017) Projected Enrollment
Permanent Seats
+ 310 seats at Yorktown; seats at Arlington Tech
+ 52 seats at Wilson; seats at Arlington Tech
+ 600 seats at Ed Center *
+ 300 seats at Wakefield
Assuming we build the Ed. Center flexibly
Should we consider 800+ seats in ?
Difference between seats and students is manageable
* Comparison assumes permanent seats at current class size levels and the maximum number of seats at the Ed. Center & Career Center
Career Center Working Group

10. Provides additional funding capacity through the bonds; and
What Does This Mean For the Career Center Working Group?
Consider extending the opening of 800+ seats at the Career Center by a year or two if that extension:
Provides additional funding capacity through the bonds; and
Aligns with recommendations from the Working Group currently exploring the possibility of a fourth neighborhood high school and other community amenities at the Career Center site.
Career Center Working Group