1. DSM2 Calibration: Optimization Weighting Scheme Using Management Objectives
Marianne Guerin

2. Observation: DSM2 is Used as a Delta Management Tool
Define calibration metric in operational terms:
First: Define which targets - stage, flow, EC - are important to Delta water management
Then: Sensitivity analysis and parameter correlation
Next: Define objective function and specify weights
‘Rough’ Calibration
Selected time spans: iterative fine calibration to minimize model error

3. Minimize: Root Mean Square Error
Weights normalize different observation types (units, magnitudes, data accuracy)
Prioritize:
Total weight by observation type: (Σwi, Σwj, Σwk) on stage (s), flow and velocity (f), and EC (c)
Individual weights within each category

4. Stage South Delta Ag. Barriers Western model boundary HORB ?
Sac R. Boundary?

5. Flow or Velocity Old and Middle Rivers QWEST VAMP response
DCC response

6. EC Compliance Points West Delta: Jersey Point, Emmaton South Delta:
Old R. nr Middle R., Tracy Rd. Bridge, Brandt Bridge 3.
Interior Delta:
SF Mokelumne, SJR San Andreas
X2 ? 1. 5.
Export Area:
West Canal at CCFB, DMC at Tracy PP 2. 4.
Contra Costa Canal, SJR at Antioch

7. Calibration Objective Function – Defining a Weighting Scheme
Operational targets:
Stage
Flow
Salinity targets: EC X2
Quantify ‘goodness of fit’
By-hand: post-processing
Automated: needs software
Purchase/public domain
Develop
Zonation to simplify
Benefit to ‘Management Approach’:
‘Peer-review’-able body of information
Primary use of DSM2
Clarifies reliability of model-based management decisions