1. Transitioning a Chesapeake Bay Ecological Prediction System to Operations
D. Green1, C. Brown1, F. Aikman1, A. Siebers1, H. Tolman1, M. Ji1, D. Levin2, C. Friedrichs3, M. Friedrichs3, and R. Hood4
1 NOAA, 2 Washington College, 3 VIMS College of William & Mary,
4 HPL/UMCES University of Maryland
January 24, 2012

2. Outline Ecological Forecasting Chesapeake Pathfinder Project
Next steps

3. Ecological Forecasting for a Weather Ready Nation
Predict impacts
Biological, chemical, physical, and human-induced changes on ecosystems ecosystem components, and people.
Address “what if” questions
Resource management
Transition science
Leverage infrastructure

4. Seamless Suite of Services
Local, short term nowcasting and forecasting beach water quality, living resource distribution (oysters, sea nettles), development of harmful algal blooms, pathogens,…
Long term scenarios and seasonal outlooks, estimating sea grass restoration, disease outbreaks, eutrophication and hypoxia reduction, recruitment of fisheries species…

5. Integrated Science Physical Biogeochemical Organismal Temperature
Salinity
Current velocity
Sea Surface Height
Biogeochemical
Nutrients
Phytoplankton, Zooplankton
Dissolved oxygen
Organismal
Sea Nettles
Water-borne pathogens
Harmful algal blooms

6. Enable Informed Decisions
Observations
Ecological Forecasting
&
Decision
Support
Tools
Local - Regional
Products
&
Services
for
Stakeholders
Partners & Users
Environmental Modeling
Research
System development & partnerships
Linking needed components
Scaling to local decision making
System use and sustainability

7. Pathfinder: Sea Nettle Forecasting
Forecast surface salinity and temperature fields
Apply habitat model
Generate image illustrating the likelihood of encountering sea nettles
Disseminate daily and 3-day forecast to users
SST
Likelihood of Chrysaora
Habitat Model
Salinity

8. Migration to the NOAA Chesapeake ROMS
UMD/NOAA migrated ecological forecasting models to CBOFS2
Higher resolution allows better bathymetric representation
Improves simulation of physical processes (particularly salinity)
Provides more accurate forcing for our empirical and mechanistic models 8

9. Transition to Operations
Research and monitoring to provide data for developing and validating forecast models (statistical and process models to overlay on environmental variable forecast
Builds on NESDIS/NOS/NMFS/NWS/UMD research, data and observations
Operational backbone modeling suite to create forecasts of environmental variables
Leverages NOS-supplied Chesapeake Bay Operational Forecast System (CBOFS2) model and is enabled by NCEP infrastructure
Modeling testbed and proving ground
Forecast office that works with regional management agencies and structure (e.g., Chesapeake Bay Program) to ensure utility of and support for forecast
Dissemination of products through NWS and NOS/NMFS offices and information tools

10. Planned Sea Nettle Forecast Concept of Operations

11. Testbed and Proving Ground
Next Steps
Testbed and Proving Ground
Regional Earth System Model-based Operations
Fully integrates ecosystem model suite for the Chesapeake Bay and its watershed
Assimilates in-situ and satellite-derived data by adapting and coupling existing models
Uses coupled air, land, and coastal ocean models in products and services

12. Conclusion: Its Just the Beginning…
Regional prediction system can be easily extended to other forecasts:
Harmful algal blooms
Water-borne pathogens
Dissolved oxygen (hypoxia) concentrations …
Prediction system and approach transportable to other regions
Likelihood of Vibrio vulnificus on 20 April 2011.
Relative abundance of Karlodinium veneficum on 20 April Low: 0-10, med: cells/ml, high: > 2000 cells/ml.

13. Background Material

14. Expanding Regional Capabilities Beach/Water Quality – Case Study
Issue: Water quality risk due to microbial and chemical contamination threatens human/ecosystem health and economics
Solution: Water (beach) quality guidance
Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts and warnings daily, weekly, seasonal (including lead times) using hydrologic, waves, precipitation, circulation, transport turbidity, nutrients, waste, watershed and land computational models
Collaborators: Include state and local managers, scientists, health workers, fishers and regulators
Output Product: Near-real time maps and decision support tools showing water quality index and long-term scenarios, bacterial content, water temperature, turbidity, beach closures, habitat suitability, stock assessments, categorical risk assessment
Dissemination: Online, Factsheets, and Media
Outcome: Actions taken to improve Bay and public health, clean water, promote restoration, land and resource management, adaptation, and research
Indicators and Indices

15. Harmful Algal Bloom (Chlorophyll) Monitoring & Forecast System
Issue: HABs threaten human health and natural resources
Solution: Predict nature, extent, development and movement of HAB species in Bay and its tidal tributaries.
Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts using data from hydrodynamic computer models and NOAA satellites.
Collaborators: Include state natural resource partners
Output Product: Near-real time maps showing when and where to expect initiation and landfall
Dissemination: Online and Media
Outcome: Actions taken to monitor and mitigate HAB effects.
Nowcast of K.veneficum abundance
(Experimental product)

16. Dissolved Oxygen [DO] Monitoring & Forecast System
Issue: Some areas of the Bay have low oxygen levels threatening survival of species.
Solution: Predictions and forecasts of hypoxia, including uncertainty related to nutrient loading and river flow
Operational Concept: Routinely generate predictions and forecasts on synoptic to seasonal scales using data from hydrodynamic, circulation, watershed, atmospheric and water quality models
Collaborators: Include state managers, scientists and fishers
Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing concentration and dead zones, habitat suitability, and marine assessments
Dissemination: Online and Media
Outcome: Regional actions taken to promote restoration and recovery

17. Living Resource Distribution/Oyster Monitoring & Forecast System
Issue: Oyster populations are at low levels and productivity varies depending on salinity, water quality, habitat conditions, and disease.
Solution: Annual forecast of oyster biomass including harvests and other related mortality/disease information
Operational Concept: Routinely generate forecasts and outlooks using data from hydrodynamic, circulation, watershed, water quality, atmospheric and ecosystem models
Collaborators: Include state managers, scientists and fishers
Output Product: Maps and decision support tools showing habitat suitability, stock assessments, management and larvae tracking
Dissemination: Online and Media
Outcome: Actions taken to promote oyster restoration and disease research
Chesapeake Bay Oyster Larvae Tracker (CBOLT)

18. Disease Pathogen Progression Monitoring & Forecast System
Issue: Bacterial and viral pathogens – microorganisms capable of causing disease - threaten shellfish, fish species and human health
Solution: Predict nature, extent, and spatially dependence of pathogens, including virulence probabilities in Bay and tidal tributaries
Operational Concept: Routinely generate short- and long-term predictions using data from hydrodynamic and climate models, temperature and salinity, vibrio and multiple species, pathogen models and remote sensing data.
Collaborators: Include water quality and resource mangers, environmental, health and safety planners, and health officials
Output Product: Near-real time predictions and maps showing when and where to expect outbreaks or likelihood of occurrence, and long-term scenarios
Dissemination: Online, Factsheets and Media
Outcome: Actions taken to monitor and mitigate impacts of pathogens
Near-real-time maps of V. cholerae likelihood Experimental product