1. Future Extreme Heat in The Denver Metro Area
Presentation to
Denver Regional Health Equity and Climate Summit
Stephen Saunders
The Rocky Mountain Climate Organization
November 1, 2018

2. Previous Statewide Projections
Part I.
Previous Statewide Projections

3. By Western Water Assessment, University of Colorado, for Colorado Water Conservation Board (2014)
Statewide
Focused primarily on one possible emissions future
Focused on one time frame
Average temperatures

4. WWA Projected Statewide Average Temperature Change

5. Rocky Mountain Climate Organization figure
Illustrating WWA Temperature Projections

11. Detailed Denver Projections
Part II.
Detailed Denver Projections

12. “Future Extreme Heat in the Denver Metro Area”
(2017)
Much more detailed
By RMCO, for Denver Department of Environmental Health
Based on earlier RMCO reports on extreme heat in Larimer and Boulder counties, for Colorado Department of Local Affairs
Purposes: (1) foundation for preparedness planning, (2) support for emission reductions

14. All 4 emission scenarios

15. Climate Models
High emissions: 20 models
Medium-high: 12 models
Medium-low: 19 models
Very low: 12 models

16. Climate Projections
29 million individual projections, covering:
Daily daytime high temperatures
Daily nighttime low temperatures
67 emissions scenario/model pairings
150 years

17. Future time periods

18. Extreme heat values
Focus on days 100° and hotter
But: dozens of different measures analyzed

19. Historic context:
Actual trends in 100° Days

24. Part III.
What do we do?

25. Colorado Climate Change Vulnerability Study (2015)
“Although rarely discussed in Colorado, heat is perhaps the most devastating climate-related public health impact in the country.”
Colorado Climate Change Vulnerability Study (2015)

26. In Chicago in 1995, a heat wave killed 739 people.
“. . . the collective failings that contributed to the death toll are now well-documented: a city caught off guard, social isolation, a power grid that couldn't meet demand and a lack of awareness on the perils of brutal heat.” (Chicago Tribune)

27. “Stop being so paranoid,” he said. Then he hung up the phone.
In the 1995 heat wave, the emergency management chief did not activate additional ambulances or off-duty personnel because he did not believe it was a crisis.
“Stop being so paranoid,” he said. Then he hung up the phone.
Eric Klinenberg, Heat Wave: A Social
Autopsy of Disaster in Chicago

28. Centers for Disease Control and prevention:
“Heat-related mortality is preventable.”
After new preparedness planning in Chicago, a similar Chicago heat wave in 2012 led to only a few deaths.

29. Types of actions needed
Preparedness actions to address local impacts
Emission reductions to keep impacts manageable

30. Follow up?
Stephen Saunders