1. Workplan for the development of multi-risk analysis (WP7)
A. Garcia-Aristizabal

2. Objective
“to develop a quantitative framework for multi-hazard and multi-risk analyses to assess risks associated with gas shale exploration and exploitation activities”

3. Objectives (specific)
To implement an effective mechanism to identify and structure scenarios of risk interactions and cascading effects, taking into account the phase of development of the project:
Drilling
Hydraulic stimulation
Production
Abandonment
To develop and implement physically-based, probabilistic tools for the assessment of the likelihood of occurrence of interrelated risk scenarios considering:
Induced seismicity
Ground water pollution
Air pollution
NaTech-like accidents

4. Objectives (specific)
To implement the developed framework in one of the study case.
To perform a comparative analysis between the impacts of shale gas operations and the impacts related to exploitation of alternative energy sources.

5. WP7 structure
Task 7.1 Identification and structuring multi-risk scenarios (AMRA, KeU, KNMI)
Task 7.2 Development of a probabilistic framework for the assessment of impacts associated with shale gas operations adopting a multi-risk perspective (AMRA, KNMI)
Task 7.3 Comparative analysis of the impacts of shale gas operations with the impacts associated to conventional gas and oil sources (KNMI, AMRA, KeU)

6. Workplan for the development of multi-risk analysis

7. Framing the problem

8. Framing the problem

9. Framing the problem

10. Framing the problem

11. Primary risk receptors considered

12. Primary risk receivers considered

13. Primary risk receivers
Above surface
Below surface

14. Framing the problem Risk receptors Atmosphere Local communities
Underground water
Surface water
...
Major hazard
Multi-risk
OUTCOMES
Spills, Leaks
Structural damages
Blowout
...
paths
sources

15. Multi-risk analysis Main characteristics:
Scenario identification and structuring using event trees, fault trees and bow-tie analysis (for different phases).
An approach based on key physical phenomena contributing to risk (precursor based?)
Use of (simplified) Integrated Assessment Models
Quantitative assessment based on Bayesian data analysis.

16. 1. Scenario identification
Scenario identification and structuring using event trees, fault trees and bow-tie analysis.

17. 2. Integrated assessment models
Use of (simplified) Integrated Assessment Models

18. Integrated assessment models

19. Bayesian approach
Hierarchical Bayesian approach

20. Bayesian approach
Hierarchical Bayesian approach

21. Bayesian approach
Hierarchical Bayesian approach