1. European Semester Autumn Package
Joint EMCO-SPC meeting
30 November 2017

2. 2018 Autumn Package Annual Growth Survey 2018
Draft Joint Employment Report 2018
Proposal for amended Employment Guidelines
Alert Mechanism Report 2018
Euro Area Recommendation 2018

3. 2018 Annual Growth Survey Strong growth
Virtuous triangle of economic policy: investment, structural reforms, fiscal responsibility.
Integration of the Social Pillar
Preparing for the future of work

4. 2018 Draft Joint Employment Report
Key Messages
Trends including scoreboard
Reforms overview
Results from the analysis are encouraging
Improvement for 11 out of 14 indicators
50 Critical situations
No mechanical reading of the scoreboard
Detailed analysis in the country reports

5. JER - Key messages Labour market and social situation improving…
> 235 million persons in employment
At risk of poverty or social exclusion rate keeps decreasing
Demographic change already biting  Imperative to increase employment rates and productivity

6. JER - Key messages …but challenges remain
Large discrepancies remain across member states
Wage growth subdued
Employment gains not evenly distributed
Large gap between low and high skills (31 pps)
Gender employment gap remains sizeable (11.6 pps)
Labour market segmentation: Share of temporary workers remains stable (~14%)

7. Employment Guidelines (EGs)
Frame the scope and direction for Member States’ policy coordination and provide the legal basis for Country Specific Recommendations
Based on Article 148(2) TFEU
The structure of the EGs stays unchanged, ensuring consistency with the Broad Economic Guidelines

8. Alert Mechanism Report (AMR) 2018
Correction of macroeconomic imbalances continues
Since last year, an increased emphasis on the Euro area dimension
Persistence of “stock” imbalances – vulnerabilities related to high public and private debt levels
Developments in cost competitiveness are becoming less supportive of rebalancing.
Large current account surpluses remain in some countries
Challenges in the banking sector persist
Positive labour market developments, but social distress persists in some countries
12 Member States subject to an In-Depth Review
Down from 13 and no new countries identified

10. Euro area recommendation
Recommendation in five parts for the euro area as a whole:
Policies to support inclusive growth and remove bottlenecks to investment, support job creation and reduce inequality.
Neutral fiscal stance (balance between ensuring the sustainability of public finances and supporting the economic recovery)
Promote quality job creation, equal opportunities and access to labour market, fair working conditions, and support social protection and inclusion.
Banking Union: risk reduction + risk sharing (European Deposit Insurance Scheme, common backstop for the Single Resolution Fund, strengthening of the European supervisory framework).
Make progress on completing the EMU, on the basis of the Commission initiatives of October and December 2017 (upcoming)

11. Thank you for your attention!

12. ANNEX

13. Employment and poverty trends
Employment and unemployment levels in EU
AROPE sub-components

14. JER – the Social Scoreboard