1. By Joel B. Smith Avelino Suarez
How Can Impacts Models, Information About Them, and Their Use Be Improved? By
Joel B. Smith
Avelino Suarez

2. THE PROBLEM Are strengths and weaknesses of methods understood?
Do we understand why some methods give some answers and others give different answers
Is information on strengths and weaknesses available to users?
How can the methods be improved?

3. On Method Selection
Development, selection, application of impacts methods is often ad hoc
How often is method selection based on consideration of:
data availability
user technical skill
access to necessary hardware
the research questions being asked

4. We Will Address Improving Comparisons of Methods to:
improve understanding of the models
improve the models
Making Information on Methods Useful to Users
to improve methods selection

5. Improving Comparisons of Methods
Need to better understand:
Are the methods accurately estimating current or historic conditions?
How well do the methods estimate changed conditions?

6. Also Critical to Understand
Why do the methods differ?
Differences in parameters?
What insights does this provide?
What important considerations are left out?
Are the methods reliable for different climates and socioeconomic conditions?

7. Example: Importance of Different Assumptions About Adaptation
Titus et al. (1991)
Assuming all developed areas in U.S. protected from 1-M SLR
$73 to $111 billion in damages
Yohe et al. (1996)
Assuming adoption of benefit-cost paradigm and perfect foresight
$36 billion in damages

8. VEMAP IS A GOOD EXAMPLE OF COMPARING METHODS
Compare methods using common data sets:
Observed climate
Climate change (e.g., GCMs)
Spurs method improvements

9. We Need More Method Comparisons
Understand why methods are similar or are different
What insights do we get
Do it for important sectors, e.g., water, agriculture, health, coastal zones

10. Who Should Be Involved Need to involve methods developers
Also need to involve users
Developing and developed countries
Including stakeholders

11. Should Also Evaluate Applicability
Data Availability
Hardware Availibility
Training Needs
May need a mix of methods

12. Making Results Available
Results of such evaluations need to be available to users in a format that is useful and accessible
Web?
Books or Reports?
Clearinghouse?