1. Nottinghamshire Draft Police and Crime Needs Assessment
December 2018
Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

2. Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner
What is the PCNA?
Shared overview of the main crime, community safety and criminal justice issues, risks and threats facing the area
The PCNA aims to inform:-
Refresh of the 2019 to 2021 Police and Crime Plan
Organisational planning for 2019 and beyond
Grants and commissioning process for
It brings together a wide range of partnership data and stakeholder perspectives
It is updated on an annual basis
The Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Needs Assessment (PCNA) has been produced in collaboration with police and other relevant crime, community safety and criminal justice stakeholders, and is informed by a wide range of local and national information sources.
The assessment highlights the main issues, risks and threats that are likely to impact upon the crime and community safety environment between 2019 and The assessment’s findings will be used to inform key planning and policy decisions over the 2019/20 period.
Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

3. What information have we used?
Partnership Assessments
Police Strategic Threat Assessment 2018, MORILE prioritisation Matrices
Community Safety Strategic Assessments,
Public Health Joint Strategic Needs Assessments
Consultation
Police and Crime Survey, OPCC Public Consultation, Rural Crime Survey
Local Authority Resident Perception Surveys, Focus Groups,
National perception surveys
Organisational Reviews
Independent Reviews, Internal Audits, HMICFRS Inspection reports
Strategic Risk Registers, Value for Money Profiles
Performance Reports, Force Management Statement
National Data Sources
Crime Survey England & Wales, Commercial Victimisation Survey,
LAPE / Alcohol-related harm, Crime Outcomes Profile,
Strategic Policing Requirement
Environmental Scanning
PESTELO assessments (Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal, Organisational), Changing demographic trends,
Wider determinants of crime, victimisation and vulnerability    
The PCNA is refreshed on an annual basis in line with partnership planning and business cycles and in line with recognised good practice for commissioning. The PCNA is not intended to duplicate existing analytical processes, but assimilate and build upon the issues partner agencies have identified as part of their own scanning and assessment processes.
The PCNA is informed by information from a range of sources including the Police, Crime and Drugs Partnership (CDP) and Safer Nottinghamshire Board (SNB) and the PCCs rolling Police and Crime Survey. Where possible, findings have been triangulated across a range of local and national data sets.
The assessment adopts a PESTELO approach to reviewing the impact of the changing environment, and combines MORILE matrices produced by statutory partners such as the police and Nottingham CDP.
As reflected in relevant CIPFA/SOLACE, NOMS, APACE and Audit Commission guidance
Review of Political, Economic, Social, Technological, Environmental, Legal and Organisational factors likely to have an impact upon crime, community safety and criminal justice 
Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

4. Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner
PCNA 2018: Key Issues
The annual PCNA aims to provide a shared overview of the main crime, community safety and criminal justice issues, risks and threats that are likely to impact on Nottinghamshire over the coming years. In 2018 these include:-
Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

5. Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner
PCNA 2018: Key Issues
The annual PCNA aims to provide a shared overview of the main crime, community safety and criminal justice issues, risks and threats that are likely to impact on Nottinghamshire over the coming years. In 2018 these include:-
Increase in the complexity of demand presenting to local services
Significant public sector capacity constraints impacting upon:-
Proactive and preventative capability
Response to public protection and safeguarding demand
Mainstream service offer to communities
Specific areas of escalating risk include:-
Risk of harm to / exploitation of vulnerable people – esp. YP
Increasing reach / sophistication of serious organised criminality
Substance misuse as a driver of crime and vulnerability
Technology as an enabler of crime (and an opportunity to prevent it)
Tackling the harm and exploitation of vulnerable people, and young people in particular, remains one of the most critical partnership challenges. This has been marked over the last year by rises in weapon-enabled violence, the increasing reach and resilience of serious and organised crime networks, rising substance-related needs, and an increasing awareness of modern slavery, child exploitation and the use of technology as an enabler of harm.
Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

6. Drivers of vulnerability and complex need!
Ongoing increases in some drivers of vulnerability and complex need
Mental health-related needs, rough sleeping, financial hardship, Class A drug use
Some clear improvements in multi-agency service response
Improved response to mental health and use of s136 places of safety
Missing persons, suicide reduction, child safeguarding referrals
Planned activity and enablers:-
National investment in mental health crisis care, social care and homeless prevention
Reviews of drug use and treatment, ongoing drug market enforcement
Out of Court Disposal reforms
Anticipated risks:-
Increases in targeted exploitation, concern for safety demand and acquisitive crime
Resilience of drug markets, further reductions in partnership budgets,
Roll out of Universal Credit   !
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

7. Drivers of vulnerability and complex need
Nottinghamshire Police Recorded Crime
Difference to most similar force area: Oct 2017 to Sep 2018
Drivers of vulnerability and complex need
Shoplifting / other theft !
Ongoing increases in some drivers of vulnerability and complex need
Mental health-related needs, rough sleeping, financial hardship, Class A drug use
Some clear improvements in multi-agency service response
Improved response to mental health and use of s136 places of safety
Missing persons, suicide reduction, child safeguarding referrals
Planned activity and enablers:-
National investment in mental health crisis care, social care and homeless prevention
Reviews of drug use and treatment, ongoing drug market enforcement
Out of Court Disposal reforms
Anticipated risks:-
Increases in targeted exploitation, concern for safety demand and acquisitive crime
Resilience of drug markets, further reductions in partnership budgets,
Roll out of Universal Credit
Drug offences
Violence with / without injury 
Burglary  !
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

8. Drivers of vulnerability and complex need!
Ongoing increases in some drivers of vulnerability and complex need
Mental health-related needs, rough sleeping, financial hardship, Class A drug use
Some clear improvements in multi-agency service response
Improved response to mental health and use of s136 places of safety
Missing persons, suicide reduction, child safeguarding referrals
Planned activity and enablers:-
National investment in mental health crisis care, social care and homeless prevention
Reviews of drug use and treatment, ongoing drug market enforcement
Out of Court Disposal reforms Diversion and Liaison Trauma-informed response
Anticipated risks:-
Increases in targeted exploitation, concern for safety demand and acquisitive crime
Resilience of drug markets, further reductions in partnership budgets,
Roll out of Universal Credit   !
Rising levels of financial hardship, mental health-related need and problematic drug use continue to impact upon Nottinghamshire’s most vulnerable communities and place additional pressures on local services in terms of concern for safety demand, acquisitive crime and risk of harm. This is likely to be compounded in 2019 by the wider roll out of Universal Credit and ongoing reductions in real term partnership budgets.
While targeted work in areas such as mental health and missing persons has helped to provide earlier intervention, reduce service demand and prevent risk of harm to vulnerable people, there is also evidence to suggest that timely opportunities are being missed to refer vulnerable people into the support services available.
Government investment in mental health, social care and homelessness prevention in 2019 is likely to help further alleviate some of these pressures, but in the absence of more integrated partnership preventative strategies, is unlikely to stem rising net demand in the short-medium term.
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

9. Identification of and response to hidden harm
Improvements in identification of hidden harm post-2012
Improvements in disclosure, crime and incident recording, proactive identification
Awareness / understanding, introduction of new crime categories
Barriers to investigation, criminal justice and victim support
Capacity constraints: Investigation, Offender Management (MOSOVO, MAPPA)
Gaps in support (counselling, therapeutic), Victim awareness and co-operation
Indications that new presentations are reducing
FGM, honour based violence, CSE crimes, domestic abuse
Planned activity and enablers
Opportunities for more pro-active identification of hidden harm
New local safeguarding arrangements, Victims of Crime Bill, Domestic Abuse Bill
Anticipated risks
Further reductions in partnership budgets, increasing levels of vulnerability / complex need,
Growth in digital and cyber-enabled harm, Brexit?  ! !  !
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

10. Identification of and response to hidden harm
Improvements in identification of hidden harm post-2012
Improvements in disclosure, crime and incident recording, proactive identification
Awareness / understanding, introduction of new crime categories
Barriers to investigation, criminal justice and victim support
Capacity constraints: Investigation, Offender Management (MOSOVO, MAPPA)
Gaps in support (counselling, therapeutic), Victim awareness and co-operation
Indications that new presentations are reducing
FGM, honour based violence, CSE crimes, domestic abuse
Planned activity and enablers
Opportunities for more pro-active identification of hidden harm
New local safeguarding arrangements, Victims of Crime Bill, Domestic Abuse Bill
Anticipated risks
Further reductions in partnership budgets, increasing levels of vulnerability / complex need,
Growth in digital and cyber-enabled harm, Brexit? 
POLICE RECORDED
2016/17
2017/18
% Change
Forced marriage 13 10
-23%
HBV 82 72
-12%
FGM 25
-48%
CSE
(HO Recordable Crimes)
186
126
-32%
Domestic abuse
(Crimes and incidents)
16,417
16,198
-1.3% !
+5%
-1% !
+17%
+7%  !
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

11. Identification of and response to hidden harm
Reasons for not reporting crime - Police and Crime Survey 2018
Improvements in identification of hidden harm post-2012
Improvements in disclosure, crime and incident recording, proactive identification
Awareness / understanding, new crime categories
Capacity constraints on investigation, CJ and victim support services
Domestic and abuse, CSE, MOSOVO, MAPPA
Victim support and advocacy – counselling, therapeutic support
Indications that new presentations are reducing
FGM, honour based violence, CSE crimes, domestic abuse
Planned activity and enablers
Opportunities for more pro-active identification of hidden harm
New local safeguarding arrangements, Victims of Crime Bill, Domestic Abuse Bill
Anticipated risks
Ongoing reductions in partnership budgets
Keeping pace with digital developments  ! !  !
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

12. Identification of and response to hidden harm
Improvements in identification of hidden harm post-2012
Improvements in disclosure, crime and incident recording, proactive identification
Awareness / understanding, introduction of new crime categories
Barriers to investigation, criminal justice and victim support
Capacity constraints: Investigation, Offender Management (MOSOVO, MAPPA)
Gaps in support (counselling, therapeutic), Victim awareness and co-operation
Indications that new presentations are reducing
FGM, honour based violence, CSE crimes, domestic abuse
Planned activity and enablers
Opportunities for more pro-active identification of hidden harm
New local safeguarding arrangements, Victims of Crime Bill, Domestic Abuse Bill
Anticipated risks
Further reductions in partnership budgets, increasing levels of vulnerability / complex need,
Growth in digital and cyber-enabled harm, hate crime - Brexit?  ! ! 
The level of ‘hidden harm’ identified by safeguarding agencies increased substantially between 2012 and 2018, largely as a result of greater disclosure and improvements in training, recording and assessment practices , however, saw reductions in newly identified hidden harm across a number of areas, despite evidence suggesting significant underreporting among vulnerable groups such as male survivors of sexual exploitation and abuse and new and emerging communities.
Positive outcomes, arrest and voluntary interview rates for domestic abuse continued to deteriorate in 2018, alongside increases in the proportion of victims that do not support further police action. While recognising significant capacity constraints on offender management, investigation and victim support services, opportunities remain to increase victim awareness and co-operation with criminal justice process among survivors of domestic abuse, modern slavery and other aspects of hidden harm.
Specific gaps in current victim service provision include the availability and consistency of therapeutic support services for survivors of sexual abuse and specialist support for survivors of stalking and modern slavery across the area. !
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

13. Youth-related violence and exploitation
Rise in levels of weapon-enabled crime and most serious violence
Violent knife crimes (+11%) , Knife-enabled robbery (+ 34%), Threats to kill (+45%)
Knife crime offences per 1,000 population 23% above most similar force average
Increasing risk of criminal and sexual exploitation
Criminal exploitation - growing reach of serious and organised criminality – County Lines
Sexual exploitation – prevalence of cyber-enabled contact and non-contact offending
Ongoing improvements in partnership planning and co-ordination
Knife Crime Strategy, Public Health response to serious violence, drug market enforcement
Increasing child safeguarding referrals, Schools & Early Intervention Officers
Planned activity and enablers
Serious Violence Strategy, Serious and Organised Crime Strategy
Potential risks
Ongoing reductions in partnership budgets, Troubled Families arrangements post 2020?
Lack of co-ordinated assertive outreach and engagement for vulnerable young people
Comparative trends in total weapon-enabled violence – 2015 to 2018 ! !   !
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

14. Youth-related violence and exploitation
Rise in levels of weapon-enabled crime and most serious violence
Violent knife crimes (+11%) , Knife-enabled robbery (+ 34%), Threats to kill (+45%)
Knife crime offences per 1,000 population 23% above most similar force average
Increasing risk of criminal and sexual exploitation
Criminal exploitation - growing reach of serious and organised criminality – County Lines
Sexual exploitation – prevalence of cyber-enabled contact and non-contact offending
Ongoing improvements in partnership planning and co-ordination
Knife Crime Strategy, Public Health response to serious violence, drug market enforcement
Increasing child safeguarding referrals, Schools & Early Intervention Officers
Planned activity and enablers
Serious Violence Strategy, Serious and Organised Crime Strategy
Potential risks
Ongoing reductions in partnership budgets, Troubled Families arrangements post 2020?
Lack of co-ordinated assertive outreach and engagement for vulnerable young people ! !   !
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

15. Youth-related violence and exploitation
Rise in levels of weapon-enabled crime and most serious violence
Violent knife crimes (+11%) , Knife-enabled robbery (+ 34%), Threats to kill (+45%)
Knife crime offences per 1,000 population 23% above most similar force average
Increasing risk of criminal and sexual exploitation
Criminal exploitation - growing reach of serious and organised criminality – County Lines
Sexual exploitation – prevalence of cyber-enabled contact and non-contact offending
Ongoing improvements in partnership planning and co-ordination
Knife Crime Strategy, Public Health response to serious violence, drug market enforcement
Increasing child safeguarding referrals, Schools & Early Intervention Officers
Planned activity and enablers
Serious Violence Strategy, Serious and Organised Crime Strategy
Potential risks
Ongoing reductions in partnership budgets, Troubled Families arrangements post 2020?
Lack of co-ordinated assertive outreach and engagement for vulnerable young people ! !  
Serious weapon-enabled violence involving young people has increased over the last year in line with national trends, alongside an emerging culture of knife possession among a minority of vulnerable young people. Entrants into the youth justice system are also becoming younger and involved in violence earlier in their offending careers.
Evidence indicates the involvement of vulnerable young people in emerging crime networks and county lines activity across and beyond the force area. Cyber-related activity also continues to present risks and opportunities for the criminal and sexual exploitation of young people in a wide variety of settings.
While the response to these issues has been compounded by marked reductions in statutory youth service provision since 2014, improvements have been made in risk assessment, information sharing and safeguarding practices which have led to better identification of risk and earlier intervention of harm among statutory partner agencies. !
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

16. Protecting the mainstream service offer
Reduction in the mainstream service offer
Erosion of neighbourhood policing / abstractions to response
Deterioration in outcomes for non-enhanced victims of crime
Reductions in public confidence in policing outside the city
Increasing confidence deficit among more rural communities and businesses
Positive outcomes in areas where policing activity is concentrated
Trust and confidence highest in city, areas of highest deprivation
Strong and improving perceptions among BAME communities
Planned activity and enablers
Single Online Home, Digital engagement, Neighbourhood Policing Principles
Potential risks
Reducing partnership budgets ! !   !
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

17. Protecting the mainstream service offer
Reduction in the mainstream service offer
Erosion of neighbourhood policing / abstractions to response
Deterioration in outcomes for non-enhanced victims of crime
Reductions in public confidence in policing outside the city
Increasing confidence deficit among more rural communities and businesses
Positive outcomes in areas where policing activity is concentrated
Trust and confidence highest in city, areas of highest deprivation
Strong and improving perceptions among BAME communities
Planned activity and enablers
Single Online Home, Digital engagement, Neighbourhood Policing Principles
Potential risks
Reducing partnership budgets ! !   !
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

18. Protecting the mainstream service offer
Reduction in the mainstream service offer
Erosion of neighbourhood policing / abstractions to response
Deterioration in outcomes for non-enhanced victims of crime
Reductions in public confidence in policing outside the city
Increasing confidence deficit among more rural communities and businesses
Positive outcomes in areas where policing activity is concentrated
Trust and confidence highest in city, areas of highest deprivation
Strong and improving perceptions among BAME communities
Planned activity and enablers
Engagement: Single Online Home, Digital, Neighbourhood Policing Principles
Potential risks
Reducing partnership budgets ! !  
Reductions in public sector budgets and changing demand have significantly impacted upon workface capacity since 2010, with policing activity increasingly concentrated in the areas of greatest need. Consequently, while performance has been largely maintained in areas targeted, lower severity crime categories have experienced deterioration in arrest rates and positive outcomes.
The PCC’s Police and Crime Survey also highlighted deterioration in public trust and confidence in police during 2018 which was most notable in the more rural areas of the county. There also remains a widespread consensus among residents that more should be done to tackle reckless and dangerous driving in local communities. The 2018 rural crime survey also highlighted the disproportionate impact of crime on rural business communities.
Digital tools and technology present clear opportunities to improve engagement with communities on the issues that matter most to them and develop more predictive evidence led responses to volume demand. There are also opportunities to enhance neighbourhood-based problem-solving through more integrated locality working in areas of high demand and complexity. !
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

19. Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner
PCNA 2018: Key Issues
Weapon-enabled violence and exploitation, child sexual exploitation
Domestic and sexual abuse, modern slavery and trafficking
Serious acquisitive crime and cyber-enabled crime
Increase in the complexity of demand presenting to local services
Significant public sector capacity constraints impacting upon:-
Proactive and preventative capability
Response to public protection and safeguarding demand
Mainstream service offer to communities
Specific areas of escalating risk include:-
Risk of harm to / exploitation of vulnerable people – esp. YP
Increasing reach / sophistication of serious organised criminality
Substance misuse as a driver of crime and vulnerability
Technology as an enabler of crime (and an opportunity to prevent it)
Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner

20. Service Transformation
Longer-term ‘whole-systems’ preventative approaches
Awareness / training in trauma-informed response, Out of Court Disposal reform
Longer term approaches to grants and commissioning, earlier intervention (schools)
Digital capability and use of technology
Engagement, analytics, response to safeguarding and cyber (enabled) offending
Developing the right people, skills, and resources, integrated IT platforms
Integrated partnership responses to complexity
Multi-agency Crisis care, information sharing, proactive identification of hidden harm
Collaboration and public service reform, VCS engagement, Neighbourhood problem solving
Developing trust and confidence among victims and communities
VCS engagement, strengthening engagement and feedback – esp. rural communities
Clarity on the role and purpose of policing, improvements in third party reporting
Analytical capability and understanding what works
Bolstering multi-agency analytical capacity, use of predictive analytics / big data
Evaluating impact of interventions – esp. in reducing harm to vulnerable people     
Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Commissioner

21. Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner
For further information about the Nottinghamshire Police and Crime Needs Assessment please contact Dan Howitt, Head of Research and Information, Nottinghamshire OPCC
Nottinghamshire Police & Crime Commissioner