1. LESSONS FROM CAPITAL MARKET HISTORY
Chapter 12
LESSONS FROM CAPITAL MARKET HISTORY

2. Key Concepts and Skills
Know how to calculate the return on an investment
Understand the historical returns on various types of investments
Understand the historical risks on various types of investments
Understand the implications of market efficiency
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3. Chapter Outline Returns The Historical Record
Average Returns: The First Lesson
The Variability of Returns: The Second Lesson
More about Average Returns
Capital Market Efficiency
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4. Risk, Return, and Financial Markets
We can examine returns in the financial markets to help us determine the appropriate returns on non-financial assets
Lessons from capital market history
There is a reward for bearing risk
The greater the potential reward, the greater the risk
This is called the risk-return trade-off
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5. Dollar Returns
Total dollar return = income from investment capital gain (loss) due to change in price
Example:
You bought a bond for $950 one year ago. You have received two coupons of $30 each. You can sell the bond for $975 today. What is your total dollar return?
Income = = 60
Capital gain = 975 – 950 = 25
Total dollar return = = $85
Lecture Tip: The issues discussed in this section need to be stressed. Many students feel that if you don’t sell a security, you won’t have to consider the capital gain or loss involved. (This is a common investor’s mistake – holding a loser too long because of reluctance to admit a bad decision was made.) Point out that non-recognition is relevant for tax purposes – only realized income must be reported. However, whether or not you have liquidated the asset is irrelevant when measuring a security’s pre-tax performance. Also, we need to annualize total returns so that we can compare the performance of different securities available in the market.
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6. Percentage Returns
It is generally more intuitive to think in terms of percentage, rather than dollar, returns
Dividend yield = income / beginning price
Capital gains yield = (ending price – beginning price) / beginning price
Total percentage return = dividend yield + capital gains yield
Note that the “dividend” yield is really just the yield on cash flows received from the security (other than the selling price)
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7. Example: Calculating Returns
You bought a stock for $35, and you received dividends of $1.25. The stock is now selling for $40.
What is your dollar return?
Dollar return = (40 – 35) = $6.25
What is your percentage return?
Dividend yield = 1.25 / 35 = 3.57%
Capital gains yield = (40 – 35) / 35 = 14.29%
Total percentage return = = 17.86%
You might want to point out that total percentage return is also equal to total dollar return / beginning price.
Total percentage return = 6.25 / 35 = 17.86%
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8. The Importance of Financial Markets
Financial markets allow companies, governments and individuals to increase their utility
Savers have the ability to invest in financial assets so that they can defer consumption and earn a return to compensate them for doing so
Borrowers have better access to the capital that is available so that they can invest in productive assets
Financial markets also provide us with information about the returns that are required for various levels of risk
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9. Figure 12.4
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10. Year-to-Year Total Returns
Large-Company Stock Returns
Long-Term Government
Bond Returns
Click on each of the excel icons to see a chart of year-to-year returns similar to the charts in the text.
The charts were created using the data in Table 12.1.
The annual total return for stocks has been quite volatile.
U.S. Treasury Bill Returns
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11. Average Returns Investment Average Return Large Stocks 12.1%
Small Stocks
16.9%
Long-term Corporate Bonds
6.3%
Long-term Government Bonds
5.9%
U.S. Treasury Bills
3.5%
Inflation
3.0%
A brief review of statistical properties may be in order at this point, particularly as it relates to the normal distribution.
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12. Risk Premiums The “extra” return earned for taking on risk
Treasury bills are considered to be risk-free
The risk premium is the return over and above the risk-free rate
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13. Table 12.3: Average Annual Returns and Risk Premiums
Investment
Average Return
Risk Premium
Large Stocks
12.1%
8.6%
Small Stocks
16.9%
13.4%
Long-term Corporate Bonds
6.3%
2.8%
Long-term Government Bonds
5.9%
2.4%
U.S. Treasury Bills
3.5%
0.0%
Ask the students to think about why the different investments have different risk premiums.
Large stocks: – 3.5 = 8.6
Small stocks: – 3.5 = 13.4
LT Corp. bonds: 6.3 – 3.5 = 2.8
LT Gov’t. bonds: 5.9 – 3.5 = 2.4
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14. Figure 12.9
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15. Variance and Standard Deviation
Variance and standard deviation measure the volatility of asset returns
The greater the volatility, the greater the uncertainty
Historical variance = sum of squared deviations from the mean / (number of observations – 1)
Standard deviation = square root of the variance
Lecture Tip: Occasionally, students ask why we include the above-mean returns in measuring dispersion, since these are desirable from the investor’s viewpoint. This question provides a natural springboard for a discussion of alternative variability measures. Here we discuss semivariance as an alternative to variance.
In Portfolio Selection (1959), Harry Markowitz states:
“Analyses based on [semivariance] tend to produce better portfolios than those based on [variance]. Variance considers extremely high and extremely low returns equally undesirable. An analysis based on [variance] seeks to eliminate extremes. An analysis based on [semivariance] on the other hand, concentrates on reducing losses.”
Semivariance is computed in a manner similar to the traditional variance, except that if the deviation is positive, its value is replaced by zero. We still tend to use variance instead of semivariance because semivariance tends to complicate the risk-return issue, and besides, if returns are symmetrically distributed, then variance is two times semivariance.
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16. Example: Variance and Standard Deviation
Year
Actual Return
Average Return
Deviation from the Mean
Squared Deviation 1
.15
.105
.045 2
.09
-.015 3
.06
-.045 4
.12
.015
Totals
.42
.00
.0045
Remind students that the variance for a sample is computed by dividing the sum of the squared deviations by the number of observations – 1
The standard deviation is just the square root.
Lecture Tip: It is sometimes difficult to get students to appreciate the risk involved in investing in common stocks. They see the large average returns and miss the variance. A simple exercise illustrating the risk of the different securities can be performed using Table Each student (or the entire class) is given an initial investment. They are then allowed to choose a security class. Use a random number generator and the last two digits of the year to sample the distribution. The initial investment is then increased or decreased based on the return. This works best if the trials are limited to between one and five.
Variance = / (4-1) = Standard Deviation =
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17. Work the Web Example How volatile are mutual funds?
Morningstar provides information on mutual funds, including volatility
Click on the web surfer to go to the Morningstar site
Pick a fund, such as the American Funds EuroPacific Growth Fund (AEPGX).
Enter the ticker, press go and then click “Ratings & Risk”
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18. Figure 12.10
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19. Normal distribution
The normal distribution is a symmetric, bell-shaped frequency distribution
It is completely defined by its mean and standard deviation
As seen in Figure 12.10, the returns appear to be at least roughly normally distributed
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20. Figure 12.11
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21. Recent market volatility
2008 was one of the worst years for stock market investors in history
The S&P 500 plunged 37 percent
The index lost 17% in October alone
From March ‘09 to Feb ‘11, the S&P 500 doubled in value
Long-term Treasury bonds gained over 40 percent in 2008
They lost almost 26 percent in 2009
Two lessons for investors from this recent volatility:
Stocks have significant risk
Diversification matters
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22. Arithmetic vs. Geometric Mean
Arithmetic average – return earned in an average period over multiple periods
Geometric average – average compound return per period over multiple periods
The geometric average will be less than the arithmetic average unless all the returns are equal
Which is better?
The arithmetic average is overly optimistic for long horizons
The geometric average is overly pessimistic for short horizons
So, the answer depends on the planning period under consideration
15 – 20 years or less: use the arithmetic
20 – 40 years or so: split the difference between them
40 + years: use the geometric
The calculation of an appropriate average can be extended using Blume’s formula as described in the text.
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23. Example: Computing Averages
What is the arithmetic and geometric average for the following returns?
Year 1 5%
Year 2 -3%
Year %
Arithmetic average = (5 + (–3) + 12)/3 = 4.67%
Geometric average = [(1+.05)*(1-.03)*(1+.12)]1/3 – 1 = = 4.49%
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24. Efficient Capital Markets
Stock prices are in equilibrium or are “fairly” priced
If this is true, then you should not be able to earn “abnormal” or “excess” returns
Efficient markets DO NOT imply that investors cannot earn a positive return in the stock market
Consider asking the students if market efficiency has increased over time.
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25. Figure 12.14
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26. What Makes Markets Efficient?
There are many investors out there doing research
As new information comes to market, this information is analyzed and trades are made based on this information
Therefore, prices should reflect all available public information
If investors stop researching stocks, then the market will not be efficient
Point out that one consequence of the wider availability of information and lower transaction costs is that the market will be more volatile. It is easier to trade on “small” news instead of just big events.
It is also important to remember that not all available information is reliable information. It’s important to still do the research and not just jump on everything that crosses the news wire. The case of Emulex, discussed earlier, is an excellent example.
Daniel Tully, Chairman Emeritus of Merrill Lynch: “I’m not smart enough to know the top or the bottom of a market.”
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27. Common Misconceptions about EMH
Efficient markets do not mean that you can’t make money
They do mean that, on average, you will earn a return that is appropriate for the risk undertaken and there is not a bias in prices that can be exploited to earn excess returns
Market efficiency will not protect you from wrong choices if you do not diversify – you still don’t want to “put all your eggs in one basket”
Lecture tip: Claims of superior performance in stock picking are very common and often hard to verify. However, if markets are semistrong form efficient, the ability to consistently earn excess returns is unlikely.
Lecture Tip: Even the experts get confused about the meaning of capital market efficiency. Consider the following quote from a column in Forbes magazine: “Popular delusion three: Markets are efficient. The efficient market [sic] hypothesis, or EMH, would do credit to medieval alchemists and is about as scientific as their efforts to turn base metals into gold.” The writer is definitely not a proponent of EMH. Now consider this quote: “The truth is nobody can consistently predict the ups and downs of the market.” This statement is clearly consistent with the EMH. Ironically, the same person wrote both statements in the same column with exactly nine lines of type separating them.
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28. Strong Form Efficiency
Prices reflect all information, including public and private
If the market is strong form efficient, then investors could not earn abnormal returns regardless of the information they possessed
Empirical evidence indicates that markets are NOT strong form efficient and that insiders could earn abnormal returns
Students are often very interested in insider trading. The case of Martha Stewart is one with which most students tend to be familiar.
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29. Semistrong Form Efficiency
Prices reflect all publicly available information including trading information, annual reports, press releases, etc.
If the market is semistrong form efficient, then investors cannot earn abnormal returns by trading on public information
Implies that fundamental analysis will not lead to abnormal returns
Empirical evidence suggests that some stocks are semistrong form efficient, but not all. Larger, more closely followed stocks are more likely to be semistrong form efficient. Small, more thinly traded stocks may not be semistrong form efficient but liquidity costs may wipe out any abnormal returns that are available.
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30. Weak Form Efficiency
Prices reflect all past market information such as price and volume
If the market is weak form efficient, then investors cannot earn abnormal returns by trading on market information
Implies that technical analysis will not lead to abnormal returns
Empirical evidence indicates that markets are generally weak form efficient
Emphasize that just because technical analysis shouldn’t lead to abnormal returns, that doesn’t mean that you won’t earn fair returns using it – efficient markets imply that you will.
You might also want to point out that there are many technical trading rules that have never been empirically tested; so it is possible that one of them might lead to abnormal returns. But if it is well publicized, then any abnormal returns that were available will soon evaporate.
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31. Quick Quiz
Which of the investments discussed have had the highest average return and risk premium?
Which of the investments discussed have had the highest standard deviation?
What is capital market efficiency?
What are the three forms of market efficiency?
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32. Ethics Issues
Program trading is defined as automated trading generated by computer algorithms designed to react rapidly to changes in market prices. Is it ethical for investment banking houses to operate such systems when they may generate trade activity ahead of their brokerage customers, to which they owe a fiduciary duty?
Suppose that you are an employee of a printing firm that was hired to proofread proxies that contained unannounced tender offers (and unnamed targets). Should you trade on this information, and would it be considered illegal?
Case 2: The court decided in Chiarella v. United States that an employee of a printing firm, who was requested to proofread proxies that contained unannounced tender offers (and unnamed targets) was not guilty of insider trading because the employee determined the identity of the target through his own expertise.
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33. Comprehensive Problem
Your stock investments return 8%, 12%, and -4% in consecutive years. What is the geometric return?
What is the sample standard deviation of the above returns?
Using the standard deviation and mean that you just calculated, and assuming a normal probability distribution, what is the probability of losing 3% or more?
(1.08 x 1.12 x .96)^.3333 – 1 = .0511
Mean = ( ) / 3 = .0533
Variance = ( )^2 + ( )^2 = ( )^2 / (3 - 1)=
Standard deviation = ^ .5 = .0833
Probability: a 3% loss (return of -3%) lies one standard deviation below the mean. There is 16% of the probability falling below that point (68% falls between -3% and 13.66%, so 16% lies below -3% and 16% lies above 13.66%).
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