1. Approaches in Educational Planning
At the end of the session, student is able to;
1. Explain the demographic, social, economic, and political approaches of EP
2. Differentiate the manpower and human resource approaches
3. Differentiate the cost benefit and effectiveness approaches

2. Demographic, Social, Economic, & Political Approach
Basically a social need approach based on the analysis and forecast of enrollment in educational systems that portray the educational needs of the population stratum based on demographic, social, economic and political classes.

3. A. Demographic Approach
Educational Planning based on the demographic of the population.
Population 2010: 28.3 millions, growth 2.0%
(Population 2009: 27.9 millions, growth 2.6%)
GDP (2010): 4.5%, Unemployment : 3.6%
Poverty 2009: 3.8% (1970 – 49.3%)
a. Population growth:
- Crude birth rate: 26 birth per 1000 pop.
- General fertility rate 2010: 2.3% (3.0% in 200)
fertile women (15-44 yrs)

4. Population (million persons)
Item
Population (million persons)
2007 %
2008
2009
2010
Total
27.2
27.5
27.9
28.3
2.0%
Bumiputera
16.2
65.6
16.5
66.0
16.8
66.1
67.4
Chinese
6.3
25.5
25.2
6.4
24.6
Indian
1.9
7.6
7.5
7.3
Others
0.3
1.3
.03
1.2
0.7
Non-Citizens
2.5
Age <15
7.8
28.7
28.2
7.7
27.7
27.6
15-64
18.2
66.9
18.5
67.3
18.9
67.7
>64
4.4
4.5
4.6
5.1 (Aging 10%)
Dependency Ratio (%)
49.4
48.5
47.7
Median Age
26.5
26.8
27.1
Fertility Rate (%)
2.3
2.2
Malay
2.8
2.7
Other Bumi
2.4
1.8
Rural (%)
37.0
36.8
36.7 29
Urban (%)
63.0
63.2
63.3 71
Male/Female
51.4/48.6

5. b. Mortality rate: death per 1000 population, especially babies (0-4 yrs): 2.2%
c. Migration: transmigration & urbanization
- Immigrant– come to live in a foreign country
- Emigrant – leave one’s own country
~ Urbanization : 63.3%
d. Population composition: ethnicity, age, gender, social and economic classes.
~ Median monthly income (2009): RM2,830

6. In 2020 (The Star, 18 August 2010) In 2009 (RMK10):
~ Target Per Capita Income >RM49,500 (USD15,000)
~ Now RM22,000 (USD7,000)
In 2009 (RMK10):
~ 40% with income < RM2,300 (with an average RM1,400)
~ 2.4 million households;
~ 1.8% hardcore poor
~ 7.6% poor
~ 90.6% poor

7. Riches Malaysian In 2009 (US Billion) (The Star, Jun 18, 2010: p. 12)
1. Robert Kuok = RM B/2.4m
2. Ananda Krishnan = RM
3. Lee Shin Cheng = RM60,843.75
4. Lee Kim Hua = RM5, monthly?
5. Quek Leng Chan 3.85
6. Teh Hong Piow 3.8
7. Yeoh Tiong Lay 3.5
8. Syed Mokhtar 1.7
9. Vincent Tan 1.6
10. Tiong Hiew King 1.2
Total = RM B

8. e
We Have Been in the Middle Income Trap for Quite Some Time History shows the need of a compelling reason to change is required to escape
GNI Per Capita
; USD thousand
(USD thousand)
Korea 22
Czech Rep 20 18
Slovakia 16 14
Poland 12
HIGH INCOME
BOUNDARY 10
Chile 8
Argentina 6
Malaysia 4
Thailand 2
Indonesia
Source : World Bank, NEAC Analysis 8

9. NEAC is Also Concerned With the Income Profile of Households 80% of Malaysian workers are not in a position to drive the economy upwards
For Malaysia to break-out of the middle income trap, income must increase commensurate with the higher value add activities.
The low income group comprising 40% of income earners are not able to participate positively to the growth of the economy.
For inclusivity, the 40% low income group must be included in the reforms and for sustainability, social harmony is of paramount importance to be achieved through efforts to reduce the income gap and regional inequalities. To achieve the goals of NEM requires a holistic both an economic and socio-economic transformation plan.
The economic potential of the 80% of income earners (bottom 40% and middle 40%) earning less than RM3,000 per month needs to be enhanced thus allowing them to move up the value chain.
Increasing income disparity between the top 20% of income earners and the rest gives rise to the potential for social instability. 9

10. B. Social Approach
Educational Planning based on responses to social demands.
A political system tends to respond to the expressed needs and desires of its citizens, through formal or informal channels they are expressed.
Three major issues:
1. Access to education
2. Equal educational opportunity
3. Social norms

11. C. Economic Approach Education has been used as an economic elevator
As an investment for economic development:
1. Involves term investment: Cobweb Cycle
2. Changes in knowledge and technology:
requires deskilling and re-skilling

12. D. Political Approach
Educational change is an exercise in the maintenance of power and control by the already privileged.
Adherents to the claim that societies are held together not by negotiation or consensus but by the explicit or implicit use of force by those groups that currently hold power.
That conflict among socioeconomic classes and divisions is endemic and built into the social structures, including educational system.

13. B. Manpower & Human Resource Approaches
a. Manpower Approach
b. Human Resource Approach

14. a. Manpower Approach: Based on manpower requirements.
Begins with estimates of projected needs in the economy for personnel with varying levels of formal education and specific sets of technical or professional skills and knowledge.
Uses these estimations to regulate and adjust for the provision of appropriate levels and kinds of education to maximize the fit between the educational output & the requirements of the economy.  

15. Successful for planning specific programs related to defined and carefully bounded sub-economies such as provision of places in specific professional educational programs or short-term technical training programs.
Popular, the success of the USSR model.
However, it is difficult to make predictions on the economic development and manpower requirements of a country over a long period of time.

16. Ignores the cost of educating the labor force.
More as a response to the political demands of the citizens rather than to the usually unreliable calculations of the planners.
Not for planning large-scale educational systems.

17. Identifying Manpower For A Job:
1. Does the job need to be executed?
2. Does the job require a certain type of workers?
3. Does the job require specialized workers?
4. Is there any other way to execute the job?

18. Forecasting Manpower Needs
1.Work Load Factor
2.Time series
3. Productivity
4. Management decision

19. How Many Workers Need To Be Trained Up To j Level of Education/Skill?

20. GDP = Gross Domestic Product
= Contribution of sector i to GDP
  = Reciprocal of average labour productivity in sector i
= Proportion of job k in sector i
= Proportion of job k in sector i to be trained up to level j

21. How Many Workers Need To Be Trained Up To j Level of Education/Skill?

22. Year 2020 Target Per Capita Income >RM49,500 (USD15,000)
Services %
Manufacturing 31.4%
Agriculture 8.2%
Mining 6.7%
Construction 2.7%

23. b. Human Resource Approach:
Provides general education for employment
Specific job-related knowledge and skills would be provided during in-service training

24. Issues of Manpower and Human Resource Approach:
1. High population growth: 2-3% per year, difficulty in preparing manpower forecasts.
2. Employment: unemployment (manpower approach) and underemployment (human resource approach)
3. Training for highly demanded technical skills: Cobweb Cycle issue = imbalance between demand and supply of labour resulting in wage fluctuations and increased disequilibria.

25. 4.  Inefficiency of training organizations: innovativeness (vocational technical education), underdeveloped research (teaching methods), and mismanagement (monitoring and evaluation).
5. Few incentives: wage; increasing professional status, workload, diminishing job-satisfaction, and declining job security
6. Tension between “used and exchange” value (Murray Saunders, 1993)

26. C. COST BENEFITS & EFFECTIVENESS APPROACH
Cost benefits & effectiveness analysis:
Strategy Cost/Student Score Cost/Score
Small Group RM * RM20.0
Cooperative RM RM33.3
Peer Group RM RM20.0
Big Group RM RM10.0**
 * Cost benefit
** Cost effective

27. a. Cost Benefits
1. The costs and benefits of alternate policies are analysed and evaluated to determine which public policy will be most efficient.
2. A straightforward application to public policy planning of conventional neoclassical economic theory.

28. 3. The job of planning is to use economics-based analytical techniques to identify the most efficient means of reaching the consensually agreed or negotiated goals.
4. Educational expenditures are treated as investments that yield both private and social rates of return.

29. 5. Normally calculated by projecting and comparing the expected lifetime earnings of individuals with differing levels and types of education and relating these to the private and public costs of that education.
6. Required a complex long-term research projects.
7. Seldom undertake such projects to undergrid specific EP processes.
8. Analyses have been carried out by researchers in government agencies, universities and international organizations.

30. B. Cost Effectiveness:
1. To determine which policy or set of policies will most efficiently meet the non-earning objectives.
2. Where earnings are not the most appropriate or not the only indicator of policy outcomes.
3. Useful if the policy goal is to increase educational achievement levels or to provide more equitable access for marginalized groups.

31. Age-Income Profile for Schooling:
Cost & Earning A2 3 3 B2 2 B1 1 A1
Age

32. Notes:
A1A2 = Income profile when entering work after university
B1B2 = Income profile when entering work after matriculation/high school
Area 1 = Out-of-pocket costs (Yellow)
Area 2 = Foregone earnings (Green)
Area 3 = Gross returns (Blue)

33. ᵞ Ʃ Net Present Value λAi - λBi (1 + r)i - 18 =
ᵞ = Present value at Age 18
λAi = Earning in a particular year for A
λBi = Cost in a particular year for B
r = Interest rate
i = Designate age
Investment in education/training is effective if and only if ᵞ is positive.