1. WMO update WMO/UN WMO Reform Status of climate & disasters
Prof. Petteri Taalas
Secretary-General

2. WMO contributions to the SDGs

3. Reforms at the WMO Secretariat
Culture of common responsibility in provision of services for the Members
New leadership of WMO: seven directors and several chiefs
Voluntary separation/early retirement program was carried out to release fresh resources for meeting new challenges
Result based management & numerical indicators for implementation of the WMO strategy
Reforms at all departments (structures & working practices) for efficiency gains
Reform of WMO administrative activities: savings, better in-house services, transparency

4. WMO Strategic Operating Plan
Objectives of CBR
WMO EC-70
Geneva, June 2018

5. Illustrative monitoring indictors
Goal 1 - Better serve societal needs: delivering, authoritative, accessible, user-oriented and fit-for-purpose information and services
Strategic objective
Illustrative monitoring indictors
1.1 Strengthen national multi-hazard early warning/alert systems to extend reach and better enable effective decision response to the associated risks
1.1.1 Number of Members participating in a global alert system
1.1.2 Number of Members using the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) in communication of warnings/alerts
1.1.3 Number of Members with a MHEWS integrated in a national DRR management system
1.1.4 Number of Members cataloguing high impact weather, weather and climate events using WMO standard unique identifiers
1.2 Broaden the provision of policy- and decision-supporting climate information and services at all levels
1.2.1 Number of Members with basic, essential, full and advanced climate services provision capacity
Number of Members with NMHSs contributing to climate-relevant outputs (NAPs, NDCs, mitigation/adaptation projects) through national, multi-stakeholder mechanisms (e.g. National Frameworks for Climate Services)
Demonstrated impact of WMO climate-related flagship products
1.3 Further develop services in support of sustainable water management
1.3.1 Number of Members participating in WMO Global Hydrological Status and Outlook System
1.3.2 Number of Members with operational flood forecasting and warning services
1.3.3 Number of Members with operational drought warning system
1.3.4 Number of Members with improved integrated hydro/met/climate operational capabilities
1.4 Enhance and innovate the provision of value-added, decision-supporting weather information and services
1.4.1 Number of Members with QMS for selected services (aviation, marine, EWS)
1.4.2 Number of Members with socioeconomic benefit analysis conducted in the past five years
1.4.3 Number of Members with established public/private/academia engagement on: (a) service delivery and (b) maintenance of networks
1.4.4 Number of Members using (a) web applications and (b) social media in service delivery

6. Partnerships for enhanced global impact of WMO
New partnership/alliance agreements with World Bank, Green Climate Fund, European Commission and UNDP to promote climate adaptation and to target several billion USD scale investments in climate adaptation and national weather, climate and water services
WMO has also enhanced co-operation with the national development agencies of USA, UK, France, Japan, Canada, China, South Korea, Norway, Sweden and Netherlands
New partnership agreements have been signed with FAO, WHO and UNFCCC to improve agriculture, air quality and health services, to support climate mitigation and to enhance global greenhouse gas monitoring. Also ICAO, IMO, ITU.
WMO SG was selected as a UN Climate Principal by SG Guterres, WMO is advising the UNSG on climate matters

7. Improvement of the global status of WMO
WMO has enhanced its visibility in media and at several international events as a climate, disaster and water resource management organization
The annual state of the climate, disasters and greenhouse gas reports have gained very high visibility globally. Also the recent 1.5 C report of IPCC and WMO was very widely recognized. Typically attention of up to one billion readers/viewers have been reached as follow up of WMO press conferences.
WMO has began provision of early warning services of high impact weather, seasonal predictions and El Nino/La Nina variability for UN agencies as a part of the UNOCC centre at the UN Headquarters (storms, flooding, heat waves, and drought). Those services help humanitarian agencies to act proactively rather than after a disaster.
WMO has played an active role in the Arctic Council after reaching an observer status in 2017

8. Better services for 191 Members
About half of the WMO Members are lacking of state of the art weather, climate and water services
A country profile database has been developed to monitor the status of Members and to target development resources
WMO supports the Members in strategic planning and interacts with governments, ministers, heads of states to enhance the efficiency of national meteorological and hydrological services
WMO promotes development of national and regional centers of excellence and exchange of know-how and twinning between advanced and developing national agencies
WMO promotes coordinated co-operation between public and private sector actors in weather services and observations
WMO is establishing a global early warning system based on already existing European Meteoalarm system

9. Innovativeness of 52 UN agencies & bodies
WMO

10. Additional financial needs for 2020-23
Private sector engagement staffing & meeting resources
Urban services: air quality, disasters, climate adaptation
Engagement of hydrological and scientific communities in WMO activities
Global Meteoalarm implementation
Early warning services for international organizations

11. Additional financial needs for 2020-23
6. Strengthening of regional development and collaboration activities
7. Management training for the PRs
8. Enhanced global greenhouse gas budget monitoring
9. Country database
10. Data “revolution”; interpretation of Resolution 40

12. WMO REFORM: WMO of 21st Century?
Climate change, disasters and (lack of) water resources very high on the global agenda, need for climate adaptation and the expertise of NMHSs is growing
Demand for WMO expertise has grown among development agencies and other UN agencies, like World Bank, Green Climate Fund, EU, FAO, WHO, UNFCCC & OCHA
Cross-cutting and holistic approach is favoured instead of silos in weather, climate and water communities, need for data. Multi-hazard and impact based services expected
~150 Members/PRs not well engaged in WMO
Overall UN reform under way

13. Constituent Body Reform, WMO of 21st Century
1873
2050

14. Objectives of CBR Congress-17 decision 2015 WMO EC-70
“Congress requested the Executive Council to provide recommendations to the Eighteenth Congress on constituent body constructs, as appropriate, including possible new structures for TCs, RAs, EC, and also to provide recommendations on rules, procedures, processes, working mechanisms, and duties, of constituent bodies, WMO Officers (President, vice- presidents, PRAs and PTCs) and the relationship between them and the WMO Secretariat to enhance the efficiency and effectiveness of the Organization and good governance.”
REFORM IS NOT A MATTER OF WILL, IT IS A MUST
EC/Member driven process, Secretariat as facilitator
WMO EC-70
Geneva, June 2018

15. Objectives of CB Reform
Effectiveness and efficiency
Seamless integrated approach (spatial, temporal):
Earth System approach
WMO acting as one
Wider engagement of Members & national experts
Agility to uptake new challenges and tasks
Improved collaboration with partners
WMO EC-70
Geneva, June 2018

16. Alignment of WMO Structure
Policy, coordination, integration, foresight
Strategic Plan
Global lead/regional expertise
Technical
Coordination
Committee
Policy Advisory Committee
Long-Term Goal 5:
Governance
Long-Term Goal 1: Services
Commission for Services
Long-Term
Goal 2: Systems
Commission for Infrastructures
Joint WMO-IOC Committee for Oceanography and Meteorology
Long-Term
Goal 3: Science
Research Board
Scientific Advisory Panel
Long-Term
Goal 4: Capacity
Regional Associations
E-70C Recommendations to Congress
Established by EC-70

17. An enhanced role for Regional Associations
Congress / EC
Scientific and technical communities
Political and economic regional groups
Regional requirements, needs and priorities
Technical solutions Standards, guidance
TECHNICAL COMMISSIONS
National/regional experts
REGIONAL ASSOCIATIONS
Expertise, assistance, efficiency, innovation
Implementation Process

18. Capacity development as a top priority
Increase engagement of all WMO Members to address national, regional and global development needs
Increase speed, agility and added-value in supporting Members to provide information and services that respond to national and regional emerging challenges
Enhance contribution and visibility to the global agenda

19. Enhanced collaboration with partners
Joint bodies
Working arrangements
Programmes/Projects
More interaction and collaboration with
partners from all relevant areas, e.g.:

20. New Technical Commission structures
Work driven by WMO strategy, progress followed by the Executive Council and the Congress
President + (up to) three Vice-Presidents
Standing Committees (also joint with partners)
Conjoint sessions
2-year cycle of session of constituent bodies
Expert groups/Study groups
Regional Associations engaged in nomination process
Common procedures – Procedural Handbook
Better engagement of experts from academia and private sector

21. CBR-TF: Standing Committees
Infrastructure Commission
Earth observing systems and measurement networks
Methods of observations, measurements and instrumentation
Data, products and information exchange and life cycle management
Data processing for applied Earth system modelling and prediction

22. CBR-TF: Standing Committees
Service Commission
Aeronautical meteorological services
Marine and oceanographic meteorological services
Agrometeorological and climatological services
Hydrological services
Public services and disaster risk reduction (noting Members’ sovereignty on warnings)

23. Techical commission structures
Management Team
Normative Work
Exploratory Work
Standing Committee
Standing Committee
Standing Committee
Study Group
Study Group
Expert Team
Expert Team
Expert Team
Expert Team
Expert Team
Expert Team
Expert Network

24. Benefits to Members
The work of constituent bodies more closely driven by regional and national priorities
Possibility to engage much larger amount of Members in WMO activities
2-year cycle strengthens the opportunity to contribute
Increasing influence with international institutions, development and funding agencies
Holistic Earth System observations and seamless multi-hazard approaches
Greater efficiency, effectiveness and agility

25. What’s next? Kick-off of new TCs APPROVAL of CBR 2018 2019 2020
Finalization of proposals, work on details, mapping,
communication, formation of Communities of Practice (CoP)
Establishing of structures, work programmes, preparation of first session
Kick-off of new TCs
APPROVAL of CBR
2018
2019
2020

26. Expert Teams/Task Teams/Working Groups/etc; by commission
Includes Working Groups and Management Groups (no Focal Points)
It doesn’t include PUB5 Experts (president, vice-president,…)
< 270 teams in total, many of them with (partly) overlapping mandates, terms of reference and membership;
3601 Experts in total, 2373 unique names;
75 pairs of teams have 4 or more experts in common; 125 pairs have 3 or more;

27. TC expert distribution by Member
United States of America 323
United Kingdom
China
Germany
Australia
Japan
France
Canada
Republic of Korea
Russian Federation
Half the experts are provided by 10 Members
More than one third (66) of the WMO Members have no experts participating in TC work
Almost half the WMO Members (87) have one or fewer participating experts

28. Private sector engagement
Besides infrastructures (obs & IT) private sector provides services and observations
WMO is supposed to serve the interests of the governments including private sector
Private sector inside/outside of WMO?
Decision making will remain in the hands of PRs, but private sector initiatives/perspectives could be heard at constituent bodies
Support for national level legal basis for PPE
The backbone of global observing system remains to be financed by public sector; also the interest of private sector

29. Weather risks are the top economic risks World Economic Forum, Davos - Global Risk Landscape 2018
Extreme weather events
Natural disasters
Failure of climate-change mitigation and adaptation
Source: World Economic Forum (2018)

30. Distribution on natural disasters 1998-2017 90.6 % weather related

31. ~4.5 billion people affected 1998-2017 96 % weather related

32. Warming so far - -
Spatial and seasonal pattern of present-day warming: Regional warming for the 2006–2015 decade relative to 1850–1900 for the annual mean (top), the average of December, January and February (bottom left) and for June, July and August (bottom right). Warming is evaluated by regressing regional changes in the (Cowtan and Way, 2014) dataset onto the total (combined human and natural) externally-forced warming (yellow line in Figure 1.2). See Supplementary Material 1.SM for further details and versions using alternative datasets. The definition of regions (green boxes and labels in top panel) is adopted from the AR5 (Christensen et al., 2013).

33. Global precipitation 1986–2015 vs. 1901–1960
2017 has been a cooler year than the record-setting 2016, with 1.1°C above (pre-industrial), sits among top 3 warmest years on record: 2015, 2016, 2017

34. Uneven economic impact of current warming Effect of 1°C temperature increase on per capita output
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook published in October indicates that increases in countries’ temperature have uneven macroeconomic effects. Adverse consequences are concentrated in countries with relatively hot climates, such as most low-income countries. in countries with hot climates an increase in temperature reduces per capita output, in both the short and medium term, by reducing agricultural output, suppressing the productivity of workers exposed to heat, slowing investment, and damaging health.
For the median low-income developing country, with annual average temperature conditions around 25°C, a 1°C increase in temperature could lower per capita economic output by about 1.2 percent.
Even though countries whose economies are projected to be significantly adversely affected by an increase in temperature produced only about one-fifth of global GDP in 2016, they are home to close to 60% of current global population and to more than 75% of the global population projected for the end of the century.
GDP Change %
Source: International Monetary Fund (IMF) World Economic Outlook

35. Carbon dioxide level highest in 3 million years CO2 CH4 N2O
Increase 146 %
Lifetime several thousands years
Contribution to warming 66 %
Increase 257 %
Lifetime 12 years
Contribution to warming 17 %
Increase 122%
Lifetime 114 years
Contribution to warming 6 %

36. Global CO2 emissions by country
Emissions from OECD countries are about the same as in 1990 Emissions from non-OECD countries have increased rapidly in the last decade
Source: CDIAC; Le Quéré et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017

37. 3 C warming is a major risk for global food security Loss of crop yield in most parts of the world

38. Population in low elevation coastal zones 2060 projections
Source: Neumann, Vafeidis, Zimmermann, Nicholls 2015

39. Source: BP 2017; Jackson et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017
Today 85 % of energy fossil, should be replaced with renewable, hydro and nuclear during coming decades
Energy consumption by fuel source from 2000 to 2016, with growth rates indicated for the more recent period of 2011 to 2016
Source: BP 2017; Jackson et al 2017; Global Carbon Budget 2017

40. شكر
Thank you
Gracias
Merci
Спасибо 谢谢