1. GLOBAL FIREARMS THREATS & ISSUES
Ambassador Dr Ugljesa Ugi Zvekic
Prepared on the basis of the Small Arms Survey materials

2. Small Arms and Light Weapons
Definition by the International Tracing Instrument
Small arms:
revolvers, pistols, rifles, carbines, assault rifles, sub-machine guns, light machine guns
Light Weapons:
heavy machine guns, grenade launches, portable anti-tank and anti-craft guns, portable anti-tank missles and mortals of less then 100 mm calibre
“Any man-portable lethal weapon that expels or launches, is designed to expel or launch, or may be readily converted to expel or launch a shot, bullet or projectile by the action of an explosive, excluding antique small arms and light weapons or their replicas” (UNGA, 2005,para.4)

3. ‘non-conflict’ deaths = 90% of total
Armed violence:
‘non-conflict’ deaths = 90% of total
Source: Global Burden of Armed Violence, 2011

4. x 526,000 people die violently each year
Average annual death rates per 100,000, ;
Source: Global Burden of Armed Violence, 2011

5. Global distribution: a largely civilian arsenal Contact: AKa
Figure based on RN 9.
Illustrates the importance of civilian holdings.
Source: Small Arms Survey

6. Global distribution: excluding the US
Same sources, but excluding the US. Shows a more balanced distribution, although civilians remain the largest category.
Source: Small Arms Survey

7. Who has them? Global distribution
At least 875 million firearms worldwide
civilian (74%)
gangs & other armed groups (1%)
armed forces (23%)
police forces (3%)
The Small Amrs Survey estimates there are at least 875 million firearms worldwide
Most of these are in the hands of civilians
Source: Small Arms Survey

8. Who has them? Authorized trade
At least USD 8.5 billion per year
Small arms (1,662m) Light weapons (811m)
Parts (1,428m)
Accessories (350m)
Ammunition (4,266m)
We estimate that the annual trade in small arms is around 8.5 billion USD
Most of this – almost half – is made up of ammunition sales
Ammo, parts and accessories are included in the calculation
NOTE this reflects the AUTHORIZED trade.
We do not have figures on the illicit trade in SALW since it is, by its very nature, not documented
Source: Small Arms Survey

9. Authorized transfers
Now I will turn briefly to the authorized trade, and specifically our 4-year study on international transfers in small arms, light weapons and their parts, accessories and ammunition. The purpose of the study, which was launched in 2008, was to revise Small Arms Survey’s $4 billion estimate for the annual value of the small arms trade through a comprehensive assessment of existing data on international transfers, including sources not used in the compilation of our original estimate, including the UN Arms Register, government procurement notices, and data obtained directly from governments. So, drawing on this bigger pool of data, we were able to capture more of the trade – and capture it more accurately - than in our previous estimate. Estimates based on this data are in the far left column on documented transfers. However, even with the additional data sources, the trade in certain commodities (such as light weapons ammunition) and transfers between certain countries and regions (such as the Near East and much of Africa) remains opaque, remains undocumented. To account for these transfers, we developed an estimation model, iterations of which we’ve used throughout the study. Estimates generated using this model are listed in the middle column. Together, these estimates give us an estimated annual value for the international trade of $8.5 billion – more than double our previous estimate of $4 billion. The difference is explained by both an absolute growth in the trade in certain items and better data and estimation techniques.
Source: Small Arms Survey 2012

10. Top exporters ■ Austria ■ Germany ■ Spain ■ Belgium ■ Israel ■ Sweden
■ Brazil ■ Italy ■ Switzerland
■ Canada ■ Japan ■ Turkey
■ China ■ Norway ■ United Kingdom
■ Czech Rep. ■ Russian Fed. ■ United States
■ France ■ South Korea

11. Major exporters (not including “top” exporters)
CCCPA SALW Course. January 2015
Major exporters
(not including “top” exporters)
■ Argentina ■ India ■ Portugal
■ Australia ■ Iran ■ Romania
■ Bosnia/Herz. ■ Lithuania ■ Saudi Arabia
■ Bulgaria ■ Luxembourg ■ Serbia
■ Croatia ■ Mexico ■ Singapore
■ Cyprus ■ Montenegro ■ Slovakia
■ Denmark ■ Netherlands ■ South Africa
■ Finland ■ North Korea ■ Taiwan
■ Greece ■ Pakistan ■ Thailand
■ Hungary ■ Philippines ■ Ukraine
■ Poland ■ UAE

12. Top importers ■ Australia ■ Germany ■ South Korea
■ Canada ■ Italy ■ Spain
■ Cyprus ■ Japan ■ Thailand
■ Egypt ■ Pakistan ■ Turkey
■ France ■ Saudi Arabia ■ United Kingdom
■ United States

13. MILITARY SPENDNGS 2017 Total spendings: 1
MILITARY SPENDNGS Total spendings: billion USD Biggest Investors in Arms USA RUSSIA CHINA INDIA SAUDI ARABIA in EU: UK Fr Germ

14. Global trends,
Original title of the figure in the chapter: ‘Changes in the value of the global small arms trade based on UN Comtrade (USD billion*), 2001–11’
By our calculation, according to the UN Comtrade, the value of the global trade in small arms and light weapons almost doubled over a ten year period (between 2001 and 2011) (from USD billion in 2001 to USD billion in 2011)
This trend is broken down into the different categories…
Source: Small Arms Survey 2014

15. Global trends,
In this chart we see the breakdown for six categories of weapons.
It illustrates that the category of small arms ammunition saw the greatest increase—a hike of 205 per cent—between 2001 and 2011 (from USD 468 million to USD 1.43 billion). (p. 115)
We should also note that the increase could also be attributable (in part) to increased reporting on the part of states.
Source: Small Arms Survey 2014

16. EXEMPT FROM CONTROL
TRAFFICKING
PROLFERATION
LOSS
CORRUPTION

17. Problems Small arms proliferation: Fuels crime and conflict
Undermines development
Weakens government
Other problems associated with small arms
Undermine development
Hamper peace and humanitarian operations
Weaken governments’ abilities to function
Threaten civil aviation
Lead to detrimental long-term societal changes
Facilitate production of craft weapons

18. A trafficker’s perspective

19. A trafficker’s perspective
Blank end-user
certificates can be
purchased

20. A trafficker’s perspective
Small arms
ammunition is
plentiful and cheap

21. A trafficker’s perspective
Transport can be
arranged

22. A trafficker’s perspective
Potential profits are
attractive, while risks
remain slight

23. Sources of proliferation
State collapse during war
Weapons recycled from past wars
State transfer to non-state actors and militias
Support for foreign armed groups
Loss and theft from national stockpiles
[Corruption and ill-discipline among state security forces]

24. Stockpile diversion 76 million surplus military small arms
Countries more likely to export than destroy surplus
Surplus ammunition key in illicit trade
Low cost to improve accounting, physical security, monitoring, and destruction

25. Loss of state stockpiles
Photos Courtesy
Mines Advisory Group

26. Transparency Barometer
■ Reviews reporting practices
of 55 major exporters:
▪ 7 categories
▪ 43 criteria
■ Period reviewed:
■ Sets realistic goals
and expectations
Source: Small Arms Survey 2014

27. Transparency Barometer
2012: ‘Top 10’ & ‘Bottom 10’ lists
■ Most Transparent
1. Switzerland
2. United Kingdom
3. Romania
4. Serbia
5. Germany, Netherlands
(2 tied)
7. Belgium
8. Denmark
9. Italy
10. Spain
■ Least Transparent
1. Iran, North Korea, UAE
(3 tied)
4. South Africa
5. Saudi Arabia
6. Russian Federation
7. Singapore
8. China
9. Taiwan, Cyprus, Brazil (3 tied)
Source: Small Arms Survey 2014

28. Corruption and ill-discipline among state security forces
■ rental of weapons
■ sale of ammunition
■ poor stockpile management
■ needed security sector reform

29. LESS TRANSPRENCY MORE CORRUPTION A Dangerous Liaison
Transparency Barometer (TB): Small Arms Survey
Corruption Perception Index (CPI): Transparency International

31. Small Arms Survey 2012 Moving Targets Small Arms Survey (Geneva)
Moving Targets