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Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL) trial: A survival prediction model to facilitate clinical decision making  Andrew W.

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Presentation on theme: "Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL) trial: A survival prediction model to facilitate clinical decision making  Andrew W."— Presentation transcript:

1 Bypass versus Angioplasty in Severe Ischaemia of the Leg (BASIL) trial: A survival prediction model to facilitate clinical decision making  Andrew W. Bradbury, BSc, MD, MBA, FRCSEd, Donald J. Adam, MD, FRCSEd, Jocelyn Bell, PhD, John F. Forbes, PhD, F. Gerry R. Fowkes, PhD, FRCPE, Ian Gillespie, MD, FRCR, Charles Vaughan Ruckley, ChM, FRCSEd, CBE, Gillian M. Raab, PhD  Journal of Vascular Surgery  Volume 51, Issue 5, Pages 52S-68S (May 2010) DOI: /j.jvs Copyright © 2010 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

2 Fig 1 Amputation-free survival, the primary end point (PEP), and overall survival for the BASIL trial cohort are presented as (A) survival curves and (B) as smoothed estimates of the hazard functions for each event. The vertical lines on the survival curve indicate that an observation is censored. The x axis on A and B is time from randomization in years. Journal of Vascular Surgery  , 52S-68SDOI: ( /j.jvs ) Copyright © 2010 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

3 Fig 2 Survival by baseline covariates of (A) stratification, (B) below knee Bollinger angiogram score, (C) body mass index, (D) age group, (E), diabetes (F) creatinine level, (G) smoking, and (H) randomized treatment. The x axis is time from randomization in years. Journal of Vascular Surgery  , 52S-68SDOI: ( /j.jvs ) Copyright © 2010 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

4 Fig 3 Overall survival to 2 years by additional predictors of (A) number of ankle pressures, (B) ankle pressure, (C) history of cerebrovascular disease, and (D) history of stroke. The x axis is time from randomization in years. MI, Myocardial infarction; TIA, transient ischemic attack. Journal of Vascular Surgery  , 52S-68SDOI: ( /j.jvs ) Copyright © 2010 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

5 Fig 4 Fits to the (A) training and (B) validation data sets, and (C) validation model with shrinkage. In each case, three equally sized groups were created from the data according to the value of the linear predictor. The dotted lines show the fitted Weibull survival for the average linear predictor in each group. The solid lines are the Kaplan-Meier survival curves for each group. Journal of Vascular Surgery  , 52S-68SDOI: ( /j.jvs ) Copyright © 2010 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

6 Fig 5 Probability of surviving to 2 years from randomization (shrunken estimate) for the 452 patients entered into the BASIL trial. Journal of Vascular Surgery  , 52S-68SDOI: ( /j.jvs ) Copyright © 2010 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

7 Fig 6 Screen shot from prediction spreadsheet. MI, Myocardial infarction; TIA, transient ischemic attack. Journal of Vascular Surgery  , 52S-68SDOI: ( /j.jvs ) Copyright © 2010 Society for Vascular Surgery Terms and Conditions

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