1. Dollar pause but for how long?
Superforecasting StreamlinedTM
Dollar pause but for how long?
Quarterly Chartbook
Q4 2018
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2. Complete Intelligence: Superforecasting StreamlinedTM
Complete Intelligence solves an urgent need to forecast: markets, costs, revenues, economics. We have the world’s largest trade and market forecasting database.
Complete Intelligence has the largest trade and market forecasting database in the world. Our platform is highly scalable, forecasting commodities, currencies, equity market indices for >500 assets as well as economics and trade for >100 countries.
A full list of our asset forecasts – commodities, currencies and equity markets - can be found here.
A full list of our economics and trade forecasts can be found here.
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3. The US Dollar is still running, but it’ll take a pause in Nov/Dec
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4. Strong Dollar impacts on EUR and JPY: Continued weakness in Q1 2019
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5. As the Chinese Yuan (CNY) appreciates through Q1, Iron Ore prices fall
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6. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM
Steel in the world’s #1 market: China coking coal & rebar moderate into Q1
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7. Trade War or Embargo by China? Soybean price downturn continues….
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8. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM
Gasoline continues to decline, although we expect volatility early in Q1
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9. As the Dollar appreciates, EM equities continue to face difficulties
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11. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM
Methodology
The Complete Intelligence global model contains billions of data items across economics, trade, currencies and commodities. We have intentionally designed an integrated global model to ensure that actions in one market, country or sector of the economy are reflected elsewhere in markets, industries and the global economy.
For each forecast line, we test more than 1 million functions from nearly 100 industry sectors and over 100 countries against the historical data series. We then shortlist the top functions (hundreds) that correlate with prices to build our forecast algorithm. We re-test and re-build millions of forecast algorithms every month to account for changes in the global economy, markets and trade flows.
Price forecasting presents a unique challenge that extends beyond traditional regression analysis. A number of approaches can be taken to apply artificial intelligence to price forecasting, including:
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference Systems (ANFIS)
Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (and its variants, including autoregressive fractional integrated moving average)
Complete intelligence has undertaken detailed analysis and have prioritized the ARIMA-like approach over ANN, ANFIS and others. Through this process, we back test and reveal the forecast correlations and r-squared to give clients clarity on the actual levels of confidence for the forecast.
Superforecasting StreamlinedTM

12. Disclaimer of Liability
This Complete Intelligence Quarterly Chartbook (CIQC) may not be reproduced, in whole or in part, without the specific written permission of Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. makes no warranty, representation or undertaking whether expressed or implied, nor does Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. assume any legal liability, whether direct or indirect, or responsibility for the accuracy, completeness, or usefulness of any information that contain in this CIQC. It is not the intention of the CIQC to be used or deemed as recommendation, option or advice for any action(s) that may take place in future, including but not limited to investments.
This CIQC is a general communication being provided for informational purposes only. It is educational in nature and not designed to be taken as advice or a recommendation for any specific investment, strategy, plan or other purpose in any jurisdiction, nor is it a commitment from Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. or any of its subsidiaries to participate in any transactions. This data does not contain sufficient information to support an investment decision and it should not be relied upon by you in evaluating the merits of investing in any commodities, currencies, securities or products. Users must make an independent assessment of the legal, regulatory, tax, credit, and accounting implications and determine, together with their own financial, legal and tax advisers, if any data presented here is a basis for meeting personal goals. This is not intended for retail investors who should ensure that they obtain all available relevant information before making any investment. Any forecasts, data, figures, predictions, or opinions set out are for information purposes only, based on certain assumptions and current market conditions and are subject to change without prior notice. We do not have control over the output of our artificial intelligence algorithm once programmed, as it is enabled to make its own decisions and output the forecasting data presented. All information presented is considered by Complete Intelligence Pte. Ltd. to be accurate at the time of production, but no warranty of accuracy is given and no liability in respect of any error or omission is accepted. Investment involves risks, the value of investments and the income from them may fluctuate in accordance with market conditions and tax treatment and investors may not get back the full amount invested.
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13. Superforecasting StreamlinedTM
Do you have a question on this presentation or need a customized forecast? Please us at
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