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Droughts analysis for the 20 and 21st century Presented by: Dr. Gerald Corzo In Cooperation with WATCH project.

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Presentation on theme: "Droughts analysis for the 20 and 21st century Presented by: Dr. Gerald Corzo In Cooperation with WATCH project."— Presentation transcript:

1 Droughts analysis for the 20 and 21st century Presented by: Dr. Gerald Corzo In Cooperation with WATCH project

2 Esta presentacion y su contexto en el taller Donde? Cuando va a ocurir? Hay posibilidades de que eventos ocurran al mismo tiempo (sincronismo)? Puedo identificar con tiempo los cambios y poder pronosticar la magnitud? Como puedo reducir la incertidumbre de las proyecciones globales.? Conocemos indudablemente que hay cambios en frecuencias de los eventos Sabemos que van haber mayores duraciones de sequias Sabemos que los eventos seran mas intensos……

3 Main objective: to advance our knowledge of the impact of global change on hydrological extremes (drought & large-scale floods) What are the characteristics of extreme historical events? Are there consistent patterns in the spatial occurrence of extreme events? Are we seeing an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme events? What about the future (21 st century)? Drought last decade (EEA, 2010) Hydrological Extremes at a global scale: historic and future climate

4 DATA OBSERVATIONS - Test Basins - Discharge data from the UNESCO- FRIEND European Water Archive - WATCH Forcing Data (WFD, global, 0.5 o, 20 th century, Int. GPCC, ER40 and CRU) MODELING OUTCOME - WATCH Test Basins, RBHMs - WATCH Forcing Data (global, 0.5 o, 21 st century) - Large-scale models: GHMs, LSMs (WFD, global, 0.5 o, 20 th century) - Large-scale models: GHMs, LSMs (global, 0.5 o, 21 st century, 3 GCMs, A2 and B1) Hydrological Extremes at a global scale: historic and future climate

5 Large scale-data Large-scale models - GHMs - LSHMs 0.5° x 0.5° (sub)daily HTESSEL WaterGap H08 GWAVA VIC ? Jules LPJml MPI-HM Orchidee courtesy: WaterMIP

6 Spatial-temporal patterns (non- continuous areas) Simulated runoff large-scale model Fixed threshold (X70, X80, X95) Drought characteristics per cell (67420 cells) Area in drought (globe, selected regions) Tallaksen et al. (2009) Algorithms that identify hydrological drought characteristics:

7 Example of the variable threshold and its moving average Time series Threshold Qsb model results Daily intensity No deficit ends after some time steps Spatiotemporal pattern of droughts

8 Experimental options

9 RDI = River flowRSPI = Rainfall Drought Catalogue (observed data) Hannaford et al. (2011) Hydrol. Process. Hydrological Extremes at a global scale: historic and future climate

10 Number of droughts: drought in monthly runoff 8 large-scale models 1963-2001 WATCH Forcing Data Van Huijgevoort et al. (under progress)

11 Spatiotemporal pattern of droughts Integrate Time series Spatial phenomena Classification (Label events)

12 Non-continuous drought areas January 30, 1963 WaterGap, subsurface flow (Qsb)

13 Non-continuous drought areas Area in drought (globe)

14 Non-continuous drought areas Regionalization based on climatology WFD classification version prepared by Niko Wanders

15 Non-continuous drought areas Af climate (Tropical areas) Cfb climate (e.g. Europe) 19971998 1976 Area in drought (hydro-climatic region)

16 Non-continuous drought areas Af climate ( Tropical areas ) Cfb climate (e.g. Europe) Temporal evolution of drought Percentage of drought per region (WaterGap 1963-2000)

17 Changes in time of drought regions

18 Synchronicity in drought occurrence Van Huijgevoort, Hazenberg et al. (under progress) Drought clusters: Drought in runoff August 1976 WaterGAP WATCH Forcing Data Hydrological Extremes at a global scale: historic and future climate

19 Number of Droughts: Drought in runoff MPI-HM Impact climate change CNRM A2 projection CTRL 1971-2000 2021-2150 2071-2100 Corzo, van Lanen et al. (under progress) Hydrological Extremes at a global scale: historic and future climate

20 Number of Droughts: Drought in runoff Impact climate change 3 GCMs A2 and B1 projection Corzo, van Lanen et al. (under progress) (a) MPI-HM(b) Ho8

21 Hydrological Extremes at a global scale: historic and future climate Concluding remarks: Characteristics of drought events is an important measure to determine overall changes in time series and their spatial distribution Even have spatial discrepancy among models are clear it is possible to improve modelling ensembles by comparing their members ability to represent certain regions. Characterization of global modelling representation of drought events has been done, however, work is needed on the classification of such results Analysis of global information points to a similar patterns in some regions that allow for a detailed continental and regional investigations Although floods is not presented in this work the analysis of their changes is being compared with the droughts.

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