1. Probability
“What will Be?”

2. The probability P, of an event is the RATIO of successful outcomes, called Successes, to all outcomes of the event, called Possibilities.
P(E)=
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3. Probability of an event is a Number between 0 and 1.
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4. CHANCE
Chance is how likely it is that something will happen. To state a chance, we use a percent.
Probability 1
Equally likely to happen or not to happen
Certain to happen
Certain not to happen
Chance
50 % 0%
100%

5. Likelihood
When the probability is greater than 0.5, implies the event is likely to happen
When the probability is smaller than 0.5, implies the event is unlikely to happen
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6. Applied Probability
What is the probability that the sun will rise in the west tomorrow?
Zero

7. The possible outcomes P(H)= and P(T)= An unbiased coin
Example 1:
An unbiased coin
The total possible outcomes is head (H) or Tail (T)
P(H)=
and
P(T)=
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8. Applied Probability
If you tossed a quarter 50 times, how many times should it land on tails?
25 times

10. P( ) = Total possible outcomes is 6. 5 or 6
What is the Probability of Rolling a 5 or 6?
Total possible outcomes is 6.
P( ) =
5 or 6
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11. A jar contains 12 blue , 8 green, and 5 red marbles
You Try
Probability
A jar contains 12 blue , 8 green, and 5 red marbles
If you reach in & choose 1
What is the P it is blue?
What is the P it is not blue?
What is the P it is not black?
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12. Probability (Your Turn)
What is the P it is blue?
P = 12/25 = .48
What is the P it is not blue
P = 13/25 = .52
What is the P it is not black
P = 25/25 = 1
BACK

13. Probability
“What will Be?”