1. Preparing the Systems Proposal10
Systems Analysis and Design, 7e
Kendall & Kendall
© 2008 Pearson Prentice Hall

2. Learning Objectives
Inventory and appraise current and proposed hardware and software and the way it supports human interactions with technology
Evaluate software by addressing the trade-offs among creating custom software, purchasing COTS software, and outsourcing to an application service provider
Assist decision makers in choosing decision support systems, including recommendation systems and neural nets
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3. Learning Objectives (Continued)
Forecast tangible and intangible costs and benefits, and perform a cost-benefit analysis using a number of methods
Professionally write and present an effective systems proposal, incorporating figures and graphs
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4. Systems Proposal
A distillation of all that the system analyst has learned about users, the business, and about what is needed to improve its performance
Systematic methods to:
Acquire hardware and software
Identify and forecast costs and benefits
Perform a cost-benefit analysis
Information needs of users drive the selection of hardware, data storage media, and COTS software. The system that is proposed is the analyst’s response to users’ information needs and a reflection of the human needs they have communicated.
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5. Major Topics Ascertaining hardware/software needs
Tangible and intangible costs and benefits
Systems proposal
Using tables, graphs, and figures
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6. Ascertaining Hardware and Software Needs
Steps used to determine hardware and software needs:
Inventory computer hardware currently available
Estimate current and future system workloads
Evaluate available hardware and software
Choose the vendor
Acquire the computer equipment
Only when systems analysts, users, and management have a good grasp of what kinds of tasks must be accomplished can hardware options be considered.
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7. Figure 10.1 Steps in choosing hardware and software
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8. Inventorying Computer Hardware
Type of equipment
Operation status of the equipment
Estimated age of equipment
Projected life of equipment
Physical location of equipment
Department or person responsible for equipment
Financial arrangement for equipment
Begin by inventorying what computer hardware is already available in the organization.
Type of equipment – model number, manufacturer.
Operation status of the equipment – on order, in storage, in need of repair.
Financial arrangement for equipment – owned, leased, rented.
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9. Estimating Workloads
Systems analysts formulate numbers that represent both current and projected workloads for the system so that any hardware obtained will possess the capability to handle current and future workloads
The newly-proposed system should cut down required human and computer time.
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10. Figure 10.2 Comparisons of workloads between existing and proposed systems
If estimates are accomplished properly, the business should not have to replace hardware solely due to unforeseen growth in system use.
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11. Evaluating Hardware Time required for average transactions
Total volume capacity of the system
Idle time of the CPU or network
Size of memory provided
Criteria that the systems analysts and users should use to evaluate performance of different systems hardware:
Time required for average transactions – including how long it takes to input data and how long it takes to receive output.
Total volume capacity of the system – how much can be processed at the same time before a problem arises.
Idle time of the CPU or network
Size of memory provided
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12. People That Evaluate Hardware
Management
Users
Systems analysts
Evaluating computer hardware is the shared responsibility of management, users, and systems analysts. Although vendors supply details about their offerings, analysts oversee the evaluation personally. Systems analysts will educate users and administration about advantages and disadvantages.
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13. Acquisition of Computer Equipment
Buying
Leasing
Rental
Influential factors:
Initial versus long-term costs.
Can capital afford to be tied up in computer equipment.
Should the business have full control of and responsibility for the computer equipment.
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14. Buying Main determinants – projected life of the system.
As systems become smaller, more powerful, less expensive, and distributed systems become increasingly popular, more businesses are deciding to purchase equipment.
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15. Leasing
More practical when the projected life of the system is less than four years.
More practical if significant change in technology is imminent.
Also allows the business to put its money elsewhere.
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16. Renting
Because of the high costs involved and the fact that the company will not own the rented equipment, rental should be contemplated only as a short-term move to handle nonrecurring or limited computer needs or technologically volatile times.
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17. Evaluating Vendor Support
Hardware support
Software support
Installation and training support
Maintenance support
Peruse the support services documents accompanying the purchase or lease of equipment and remember to involve appropriate legal staff before signing contracts for equipment or services.
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18. Other Considerations Possibility of adding on to the system
Interfacing with equipment from other vendors
Adding more memory
Corporate stability of the vendor
Evaluating computer hardware is not as straight forward as simply comparing costs and choosing the least expensive option.
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19. Software Alternatives
Created custom software
Purchased as COTS (commercial off-the-shelf) software
Provided by an application service provider (ASP)
It is imperative to complete a human information requirements analysis of the users and the systems they use first.
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20. Creating Custom Software
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21. Purchasing COTS Packages
Consider using COTS software when you can easily integrate the applications or packages into existing or planned systems, and when you have identified no necessity to immediately or continuously change or customize them for users.
Less than half of all projects are developed from existing applications or components. Less than 5 percent of software is off-the-shelf software that requires no modifications at all.
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22. Using An ASP
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23. Software Evaluation Performance effectiveness Performance efficiency
Ease of use
Flexibility
Quality of documentation
Manufacturer support
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24. Figure 10.7 Guidelines for evaluating software
Evaluate packaged software based on a demonstration with test data from the business considering it and an examination of accompanying documentation.
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25. Decision Support Tools
AHP and other multiple-criteria software
Expert systems and neural nets
Recommendation systems
Getting external information from the Web
Although some COTS software may address certain information processing problems, the systems analyst also needs to be able to evaluate, recommend, or support the use of decision-making tools and decision support systems for users making medium to long-range decisions.
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26. AHP and Other Multiple-criteria Software
The objective
Alternatives
Criteria
priority
AHP compares all alternatives until all pairwise comparisons are made
AHP does not require that the values of the attributes are known.
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27. Expert Systems and Neural Nets
Expert systems are rule-based reasoning systems developed around an expert in the field
Neural nets are developed by solving a number of problems of one type and letting the software get feedback on the decisions, observing what was involved in successful decisions
Expert systems – gathering expertise is called knowledge acquisition and is the most difficult part of rule set specification.
Both neural nets and expert systems are often placed in the realm of artificial intelligence. What makes them decision support systems is that it takes a human decision maker to do problem identification, knowledge acquisition, and sensitivity analysis.
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28. Recommendation Systems
Software and database systems that reduce the number of alternatives by ranking, counting, or some other method
Does not depend on numeric weights
Simply counts the number of occurrences
Collaborative filtering - is filtering information about the interests of many users by collecting information from many users, collaborating.
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29. Figure 10.9 Selected sources for external information available on the Web
Push technologies executives can configure one of these products to receive news from the Internet directly on their own personal computers.
Personalized home pages can be set up to search for specific information.
Online newspapers are good for browsing.
Intelligent agents get to know your personality, learn your behavior and track topics they think you might want to keep up to date on.
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30. Identifying and Forecasting Costs and Benefits
Judgment methods
Estimates from the sales force
Surveys to estimate customer demand
Delphi studies
Creating scenarios
Drawing historical analogies
Conditions for choosing a model are judgment methods
judgment methods – if historical data are available then consider whether the forecast is conditional or unconditional
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31. Identifying and Forecasting Costs and Benefits (Continued)
If historical data are available
Conditional
There is an association among variables in the model
Unconditional
Do not need to fine or identify any relationships
Conditional – correlation regression, leading indicators, econometrics, and input/out models.
Unconditional – judgment, moving average, and analysis of time series data.
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32. Estimation of Trends Graphical judgment The method of least squares
Moving averages
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33. Graphical Judgment
Looking at a graph and estimating by freehand an extension of a line or curve
Disadvantage
The extension of the line may depend too much on individual judgment
Advantage
The ability to perform what-if analysis
Graphical judgment is the simplest way to identify a trend and forecast future trends.
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34. The Method of Least Squares
Find the best-fitting line by minimizing the sum of the deviations from the line
Once the best-fitting line is found, it can be extended to forecast what will happen
In Excel, you can calculate the trend based on least squares directly by using the Trend function.
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35. Moving Averages
Calculate the arithmetic mean of data from groups or periods, then calculate the next arithmetic mean by discarding the oldest period’s data and adding the next period
Advantage
Useful for its smoothing ability
Disadvantage
Strongly affected by extreme values
The method of moving averages is useful because some seasonal, cyclical, or random patterns may be smoothed, leaving the trend pattern.
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36. Figure 10.11 Calculating a five-year moving average
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37. Identifying Benefits and Costs
Tangible
Intangible
Both tangible and intangible cost must be taken into account when systems are considered.
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38. Tangible Benefits
Advantages measurable in dollars that accrue to the organization through the use of the information system
Examples:
Increase in the speed of processing
Access to otherwise inaccessible information
Access to information on a more timely basis
The advantage of the computer’s superior calculating power
Decreases in the amount of employee time needed to complete specific tasks
Tangible benefits can be measured in terms of dollars, resources, or time saved.
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39. Intangible Benefits
Intangible benefits are benefits from use of the information system that are difficult to measure
Examples:
Improving the decision-making process
Enhancing accuracy
Becoming more competitive in customer service
Maintaining a good business image
Increasing job satisfaction
Both tangible and intangible benefits must be discussed in the proposal, both will allow decision makers to make a well-informed decision about the proposed system.
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40. Tangible Costs
Those that can be accurately projected by systems analysts and the business’ accounting personnel
Examples:
Cost of equipment
Cost of resources
Cost of systems analysts' time
Cost of programmers’ time
Employees’ salaries
These costs are well established and are the costs that require a cash outlay of the business.
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41. Intangible Costs
Those that are difficult to estimate, and may not be known
Examples:
Losing a competitive edge
Losing the reputation for being first
Declining company image
Ineffective decision making
It is generally not possible accurately to project a dollar amount for intangible costs.
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42. Comparing Costs and Benefits
Break-even analysis
Payback
Cash-flow analysis
Present value analysis
All these techniques provide straightforward ways of yielding information to decision makers about the worthiness of the proposed system.
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43. Break-Even Analysis
The point at which the total cost of the current system and the proposed system intersect
Useful when a business is growing and volume is a key variable in costs
Disadvantage
Benefits are assumed to remain the same
Advantage
Can determine how long it will take for the benefits of the system to pay back the costs of developing it
Total costs = costs that recur during operation of the system + developmental costs that occur only once
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44. Figure 10.13 Break-even analysis showing a payback period of three and a half years
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45. Cash-Flow Analysis
Examines the direction, size, and pattern of cash flow that is associated with the proposed information system
Determine when cash outlays and revenues will occur for both not only for the initial purchase, but over the life of the information system
Cash-flow analysis is used to determine when a company will begin to make a profit and when it will be “out of the red”.
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46. Figure 10.14 Cash-flow analysis for the computerized mail-addressing system
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47. Present Value Analysis
Way to assess all the economic outlays and revenues of the information system over its economic life, and to compare costs today with future costs and today's benefits with future benefits
Presents the time value of the investment in the information system as well as the cash flow
The cost of money is the opportunity cost, or rate that could be obtained if the money invested in the proposed system were invested in another project.
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48. Figure Taking into account present value, the conclusion is that the costs are greater than the benefits. The discount rate, i, is assumed to be .12 in calculating the multipliers in this table
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49. Guidelines for Analysis
Use break-even analysis if the project needs to be justified in terms of cost, not benefits
Use payback when the improved tangible benefits form a convincing argument for the proposed system
Use cash-flow analysis when the project is expensive, relative to the size of the company
Use present value when the payback period is long or when the cost of borrowing money is high
Whichever method remember that cost-benefit analysis should be approached systematically, in a way that can be explained and justified to managers.
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50. The Systems Proposal Cover letter Title page of project
Table of contents
Executive summary
Outline of systems study with appropriate documentation
Detailed results of the systems study
Systems alternatives
Systems analysts recommendations
Summary
Appendices
Ten main sections comprise the systems proposal.
Cover letter – should list the people who did the study and summarize the objectives of the study. Concise and friendly.
Title page of project – name of the project, the names of the team members, date submitted.
Table of contents – useful to readers of long proposals; omit if less than 10 pages.
Executive summary – precisely provides the who, what, when , where, why, and how of the proposal.
Outline of systems study with appropriate documentation – provides information about all the methods used in the study and who or what was studied.
Detailed results of the systems study – describes what was found out about human and systems needs through all the methods described in the detailed results of the systems study.
Systems alternatives - two or three alternatives that directly address the problem.
Systems analysts recommendations – the recommended solution.
Summary – brief statement that mirrors the content of the executive summary. Conclude the proposal on a positive note.
Appendices – can include any information that may be of interest.
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51. Using Figures for Effective Communication
Effective use of tables
Effective use of graphs
Integrating figures into your proposal helps demonstrate that you are responsive to the different ways people absorb information.
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52. Effective Use of Tables
Integrate into the body of the proposal
Try to fit the entire table vertically on a single page
Number and title the table at the top of the page
Label each row and column
Use a boxed table if room permits
Use footnotes if necessary to explain detailed information contained in the table
Integrate into the body of the proposal – don’t regulate them to the appendices.
Number and title the table at the top of the page – Make the title descriptive and meaningful.
Label each row and column – use more than one line for a title if necessary.
Use a boxed table if room permits – vertically ruled columns will enhance the readability.
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53. Figure 10.17 Guidelines for creating effective tables
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54. Effective Use of Graphs
Choose a style of graph that communicates your intended meaning well
Integrate the graph into the body of the proposal
Give the graph a sequential figure number and a meaningful title
Label each axis, and any lines, columns, bars, or pieces of the pie on the graph
Include a key to indicate differently colored lines, shaded bars, or crosshatched areas
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55. Types of Graphs Line graphs Column charts Bar charts Pie charts
Line graphs, column graphs, and bar charts compare values, whereas pie charts illustrate the composition of 100 percent of an entity.
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56. Line Graphs Used to show change over time
Changes of up to five variables on a single graph
May also show when lines intersect
No other type of graph shows a trend more clearly than a line graph.
Excellent ways to show how things may change over time or for representing results of payback or break-even analysis.
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57. Figure 10.20 An area is a form of line graph that may make more of an impact
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58. Column Charts
Can depict a comparison between two or more variables over time
Used more often to compare different variables at a particular point in time
Easier to understand than line graphs
Do not show trends as well as line graphs.
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59. Figure More then one variable can be displayed on a column Chart by shading or coloring the column bars
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60. Special Forms of Column Charts
100 percent stacked column chart
Shows the relationship between variables that makes up 100 percent of an entity
Deviation Column Chart
Useful for emphasizing years that show loss, or pointing out the year in which the company intends to break even
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61. Bar Charts
Used to show one or more variables within certain classes or categories during a specific time period
Sorted or organized
Alphabetical
Numerical
Geographical
Progressive order
Magnitude
A bar chart is one of the most widely known forms of graphs and can make a comparison in a straightforward way.
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62. Pie Charts
Used to show how 100 percent of a commodity is divided at a particular point in time
Easier to read than 100 percent stacked column charts or 100 percent subdivided bar charts
Disadvantage is they take a lot of room on the page
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63. Figure A pie chart is a visually appealing way to display how 100 percent of an entity is divided up at a particular time
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64. Presenting the Systems Proposal
Understanding the audience
Organizing the systems proposal presentation
Principles of delivery
As a systems analyst, you should understand your audience and how to organize, support, and deliver the oral presentation.
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65. Understanding the Audience
How formal to be
What to present
What type of visual aids to include
It is imperative you know whom you will be addressing.
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66. Organizing the Systems Proposal Presentation
Introduction
Four to six main points that capsulate the proposal
Conclusion
Questions
Introduction – should include “hook”; an anecdote, an analogy, a quotation, poetry, or even a joke.
Conclusion – should mirror introductions, the main ideas should be reiterated and a closing thought should be given.
Questions – can be taken either during or after the presentation.
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67. Principles of Delivery
Project your voice loudly enough so that the audience can hear you
Look at each person in the audience as you speak
Make visuals large enough so that the audience can see them
Use gestures that are natural to your conversational style
Introduce and conclude your talk confidently
One of the best ways to gauge the formality of presentations s by observing many different organizational meetings prior to the systems proposal presentation.
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68. Summary Computer hardware Software Purchase Lease Rental Custom COTS
Outsourced
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69. Summary (Continued) Decision support tools
Multiple-criteria decision making
Expert systems
Neural nets
Recommendation systems
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70. Summary (Continued) The systems proposal
Identifying costs and benefits
Break-even analysis
Cash-flow analysis
Present value analysis
Putting together an effective systems proposal
Visual considerations
Oral presentation
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