1. THE LOOMING THREAT OF GLOBAL COOLING Geological Evidence for Prolonged Cooling Ahead and its Impacts Don J. Easterbrook Western Washington University

2. THE PAST IS THE KEY TO THE FUTURE
To understand present-day climate changes, we need to know how climate has behaved in the past.
In order to predict where we are heading, we need to know where we’ve been.

3. Has climate always been constant before elevated atmospheric CO2?
“Our civilization has never experienced any environmental shift remotely similar to this. Today’s climate pattern has existed throughout the entire history of human civilization.” (Gore, 2006)
“Temperature has spiked within the past few years unlike any previous temperature spike in history “ (Mote, 2007)
“Current warming is 10 times greater than ever before seen in the geologic record” (Newsweek, August 13, 2007)

4. Natural global warming much more intense than modern warming has occurred many times in the geologic past without CO2 change
Climate change from oxygen isotopes in the GISP Greenland ice core. Note the size and abruptness of the warming events (in red) between 10,000 and 15,000 years ago. Also note that virtually all of the past 10,000 years has been warmer than present, well before CO2 began to rise. (Modified from Cuffy and Clow, 1997)

5. Late Pleistocene abrupt climate changes
~15,000 yrs ago, a sudden (only a few years), intense climatic warming (~12° C; ~21° F) caused dramatic melting of huge Ice Age ice sheets.
A few centuries later, temperatures again plummeted (~11°; ~20° F) and glaciers advanced.
~14,000 years ago, global temperatures rose rapidly (~4.5°C; ~8° F) and glaciers receded.
~13,400 years ago, global temperatures plunged (~8°C; ~14° F) and glaciers advanced.
~13,200 years ago, global temperatures increased rapidly (~5°C; ~9° F) and glaciers receded
12,700 yrs ago global temperatures plunged sharply (~8°C; ~14° F) and a 1000 year period of glacial readvance, the Younger Dryas, began
11,500 yrs ago, global temperatures rose sharply (~12° C; ~21° F), marking the end of the Younger Dryas cold period

6. Examples of past abrupt global climate changes before CO2 began to rise in 1945
Sudden warming 15,000 yrs ago at end of the Ice Age
Dansgard-Oerscher events—Rapid warming in decades
13 Dansgaard-Oeschger events occurred between 11,600 and 45,000 years ago
Younger Dryas -- Sudden warming 11,500 years ago °C over years and ~8°C over 40 years.
Medieval Warm Period AD
Little Ice Age – Sudden cooling 400 years ago
Historic fluctuations

7. Abrupt Younger Dryas climate change

8. Nine ice sheet advances and retreats in 1500 years
Chronology of multiple glacial advances and retreats. At least nine significant ice sheet oscillations occurred between 11,700 14C years ago and 10,250 14C years ago.

10. Sudden cooling and warming, Greenland ice core

11. Warm/cool periods past 5000 years

12. 25 yr warm/cool cycles from 18O isotopes in the Greenland ice core
Paleo-temperatures derived from oxygen isotope measurements of the GISP2 Greenland ice core. Red peaks are times of warming and blue are times of cooling. The average time period for each climatic oscillation is 27 years. All of these occurred well before significant increase in atmospheric CO2.

13. Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age
Both Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age have long been well documented with strong geologic evidence. Georef lists 485 papers on the Medieval Warm period and 1413 on the Little Ice Age for a total of 1900 published papers.
When Mann/Briffa contended neither had happened and climate had not changed in 1000 years, geologists didn’t take them seriously and thought either (1) the trees they used were not climate sensitive, or (2) they had used inappropriate data.

14. Mann “hockey stick” vs. reality

15. A group of scientists in the UK and US 1
A group of scientists in the UK and US Constructed a climate history that suppressed the Medieval Warm Period or the Little Ice Age, a major argument of CO2 advocates Doctored climate data to show increase global warming and suppress global cooling Hid or deleted data that didn’t support their beliefs Took over journal editorial boards to suppress opposing views Suppressed the research of scientists who didn’t agree with them Reviewed their own publications and claimed only “peer reviewed” papers were valid

16. Maunder Minimum
Sunspots during the Maunder Minimum. Virtually no sunspots from about 1645 to 1700 AD. The Maunder Minimum corresponds to a period of sharp global cooling known as the Little Ice Age.

17. Global cooling occurs during times of few sunspots and low solar irradiance
CORRESPONDENCE OF SOLAR IRRADIANCE AND CLIMATE CHANGE OVER THE PAST 500 YEARS. COOL PERIODS (SHOWN IN BLUE) CORRESPOND TO TIMES OF LOWER SOLAR IRRADIANCE. EACH OF THE COOL PERIODS DURING THE PAST 600 YEARS OCCURRED DURING PERIODS OF LOW SOLAR IRRADIANCE.

18. Correlation of SOI and solar activity
Remarkable correlation of the solar magnetic index and the Southern Oscillation Index (a measure of ocean temperature).

19. Two periods of global warming and two periods of global cooling have occurred in the past century
Temperature variation during the past century show two periods of warming and two of cooling, all but one before significant rise of atmospheric CO2.

20. Correlation of glacial fluctuations, global temperature, and Pacific sea surface temperature
Coincidence of Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), global temperature, and glacier fluctuations in the North Cascades. Glaciers advanced during the 1880–1915 cool period when the PDO was cool, then when the PDO switched to its warm mode, global temperatures warmed, and glaciers retreated from ~1915– The PDO changed from warm to cool ~1945–1977, global temperatures cooled and glaciers advanced once again. In 1977, the PDO switched from cool to warm mode, global temperatures warmed, and glaciers retreated. In 1999, the PDO changed back to its cool mode and global cooling began.

21. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
The Pacific Ocean has two modes—a warm mode and a cool mode—and regularly switches back and forth between them on a year cycle.
The PDO has strong correlations with global climate—when the PDO is warm, climate is warm; when the PDO is cool, climate is cool.

22. WHAT DRIVES PDO-AMO MODES?
GLACIER FLUCTUATIONS
CLIMATE CHANGES
PDO-AMO MODE CHANGES
WHAT DRIVES PDO-AMO MODES?

23. Typical warm and cool modes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
Typical warm and cool modes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). When the PDO is in its cool mode, as between 1945 and 1977, global climate cools. When the PDO is in its warm mode, as between 1977 and 1998) global climate warms.

24. Sea surface temperatures
1997
2001
Abrupt switch of the PDO from its warm mode (1997) to cool (1999). Satellite images from 1999 to 2009 show that the cool mode has become entrenched and assures three decades of global cooling.
1999
2007

25. March, 2009
2009 satellite images of the present cool PDO mode.
May 7,
2010

26. Past and predicted PDO
Basis for predicting global cooling for the next years. The PDO was in its warm mode from 1915 to 1945 and global warming resulted. From 1945 to 1977, the PDO was in its cool mode and global cooling occurred during the time of most rapid increase in atmospheric CO2. In 1977, the PDO abruptly shifted from its cool mode to its warm mode and global warming occurred from 1977 to In 1999, the PDO shifted from its warm mode to its cool mode and global cooling occurred. Projected patterns of the past four shifts in PDO and resulting global climate change indicates that we can look for years of global cooling in the future.

28. Computer models are the only basis for claiming CO2 is causing global warming. IPCC models predicted 1ºF warming from 2000 to However, no warming beyond the 1998 level so the models have been proven wrong.

29. IPCC predicted in 2000 that the Earth would be 1° F warmer by 2010, but instead, global cooling has occurred, showing that the climate models are invalid.

30. It’s all about money and power

31. Impacts of global cooling
Global cooling is far more harmful to humans than global warming because:
1. Twice as many people are killed by extreme cold than by extreme heat.
2. Decrease in global food production—hardest hit will be third-world countries where millions are now near starvation levels.
3. Increase in per capita energy demands.
4. Decreased ability to cope with the population explosion (>50% increase in next 40 years).

32. Conclusions
Numerous, abrupt, short-lived warming and cooling episodes much more intense than recent warming/cooling occurred during the late Pleistocene, none of which could have been caused by changes in atmospheric CO2. .
Climate changes in the geologic record show a regular pattern of alternate warming and cooling with a year period for the past 500 years.
Strong correlation between solar changes, the PDO, glacier advance and retreat, and global climate allow us to project a consistent pattern into the future.
Expect global cooling for the next 2-3 decades that will be far more damaging than global warming would have been.
Numerous, well defined, short-lived climate fluctuations have occurred long before CO2 began to rise.

33. CO2 as the cause of global warming is a dogma, unsupported by any tangible physical evidence and based solely on computer models whose output has not matched actual temperatures over the period from 2000 to 2009.
Dogma is an impediment to the free exercise of thought. It paralyses the intelligence. Conclusions based upon preconceived ideas are valueless. It is only the open mind that really thinks Patricia Wentworth, 1949

34. “Two things are infinite: the universe and human stupidity; and I’m not sure about the universe.” Albert Einstein.