1. Risk Analysis Fundamentals of Engineering Design by Barry Hyman
Chapter 4, Section 5
Prof. Tim Johnson
ELEC 163
Electronic Design I
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2. Define Risk At the gaming tables, what’s at risk?
In ‘21’, if you ask for a hit, could you be adversely affected?
…and the results would be?
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3. So Risk is... the potential for something of value…
…to be adversely impacted…
…by an event.
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4. What’s an example of Risk for Electronics?
You design a product and it doesn’t work right. It’s a colossal failure. Your time and money is wasted.
Your design achieves some success. You can meets some of the goals.
You’ve solved the problem and your design works perfectly.
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5. Risk consist of 3 parts: Risk Assessment Risk Perception
source assessment
Exposure assessment
Effects assessment
Risk Perception
Risk Management
(each topic will be treated separately)
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6. Risk Analysis> Risk Assessment
Answers two questions:
What kind of risk is it?
How risky is it?
Can be expressed in numbers (it can be quantified).
Risk = Magnitude * Frequency
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7. The Numbers Game Magnitude is the consequences of the event
normally the worse case
Frequency is how often the event occurs
regardless of the outcome
Can be express as
1:1000 ( one out of a 1000)
1/1000 (a fraction)
.001 (after you do the division)
.1% (changed to a percentage)
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8. Data Problems inherent in Risk Assessment
Level of uncertainty when extrapolating from known data to estimate into range of interest.
Estimating cumulative risks due to long term effects can’t account for multitude of variables.
See Figure 4-6 on page 143.
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9. Risk Analysis>Risk Assessment >Source
This phase of Risk Assessment looks at:
Identifying the source of the risk.
Estimating its magnitude.
See Table 4-2 on page 144 for a list of classes of hazards (under Description)
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10. Risk Analysis>Risk Assessment >Exposure
This assessment looks at the nature and amount of exposure to the risk identified in the source.
Long-term low-grade exposure can be daunting to verify.
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11. Risk Analysis>Risk Assessment >Effects
This assessment looks at the consequences of the effects determined exposure assessment.
Have to establish a causal relationship.
Quantify the magnitude of the effect.
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12. Fault Tree Analysis A tool to identify and explore potential failures.
Graphical tool using AND and OR logic gates.
AND gate means all inputs must be present to cause an output.
OR gate means only one need be present to cause an output.
See Fig. 4-7 on page 146.
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13. Risk Analysis>Risk Perception (using a car vs. using a Plane)
So if it’s risky, why are we doing it?
Can you ignore risk?
Can there be an acceptable level of risk?
Refer to Table 4-4, page 148.
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14. Risk Analysis> Final Phase Risk Management
Refers to any action taken to eliminate or reduce a risk to an acceptable level.
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15. Risk Management Strategies
Modify the source.
Reduce the exposure.
Reduce the effects.
Mitigate or Compensate for the effects
Modify the environment.
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16. Risk Management Tools Torts and other common law Insurance
Voluntary standards
Government regulations
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17. Risk-benefit & Cost-benefit Analysis
Examine the risks to select the least objectionable one to be exposed to.
Cost-benefit sets a dollar value on the risk.
You’re asking to set a value on human life or quality of living.
based upon a utilitarian moral philosophy.
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18. Your Assignment
Write a memo to your professor that examines the risks involved with the soldering iron project.
Consider the intended use for the soldering iron on a robotic assembly line.
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19. The presentation has concluded
Thank you for your attention
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