1. Disclaimer
The material contained in this PPT is a raw model output and research product. This is meant for scientific use.

2. Experimental Extended range prediction
INITIAL CONDITION: 3rd May 2017
Working group on Extended Range Prediction
Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India

3. Real-time forecast based on 3rd May 2017
This MME forecast has been prepared using the CFS (T126 & T382) and GFSbc (T126 & T382) (each 11 members) .
Abhilash et. al (2015): Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, 54, July 2015, DOI: /JAMC-D ,
Real-time forecast based on 3rd May 2017
initial condition

4. Daily evolution of rainfall and wind at 850hPa (by MME)

5. Predicted pentad wise rainfall (by MME)

6. Daily evolution of vorticity at 850hPa and mean sea level pressure (by MME)

7. Daily evolution of divergence and winds at 200hPa and 500mb Geopotential Height
(by MME)

8. Daily evolution of RH and winds at 700hPa (by MME)

9. Daily evolution of Soil Moisture (top 10cm) Anomaly (by MME)

10. Forecast of Cyclogenesis probability based on GPI from CGEPS(MME)

12. Daily evolution of minimum and maximum temperature Anomaly (by MME)

13. Predicted pentad wise temperature anomaly (by MME)

14. Probability of hot days, heat waves and severe heat waves
HOT: Hot day
HW: Heat wave
SHW: Severe heat wave
Circle regions with some skill on both forecast and ACC map – these are areas where it is worth looking at
Problem calculating these – don’t match with colder temperature forecasts

15. Heat wave Probability of occurrence
HOT: Hot day
HW: Heat wave
SHW: Severe heat wave
Circle regions with some skill on both forecast and ACC map – these are areas where it is worth looking at
Problem calculating these – don’t match with colder temperature forecasts

16. SOUTH ASIA REGION

17. Daily anomalous evolution of MaxT, MinT and RH2m
Maximum Temperature
anomaly
Minimum Temperature
anomaly
Relative Humidity (2m)
anomaly

18. Thanks…..