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Species Distribution Modeling

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Presentation on theme: "Species Distribution Modeling"— Presentation transcript:

1 Species Distribution Modeling
Model distributions of plants & animals Identify centers of endemism Identify potential hidden areas of endemism

2 Focal Taxa: Species Endemic to Project Area

3 Taxonomic Groups Group # of Species # of Records Birds 80 2,182
Mammals 57 665 Amphibians 188 1,588 Plants ~405 ~4,000

4 Unreviewed Amphibian Localities

5 Plant Groups Cyathaceae Passifloraceae Brunneliaceae Acanthaceae
Onagraceae - Fuchsia Fabaceae - Inga Campanulaceae Ericaceae Loasaceae Marcgraviaceae Aquifoliaceae Chrysobalanaceae Anacardiaceae Malpighiaceae Mimosaceae- Mimosa 12 families + 3 genera

6 Distribution Modeling
DEDUCTIVE INDUCTIVE Environmental Data Specialist’s Knowledge Localities Species-Environment Relationship Spatial Model Environmental Data Specialist Review Range Prediction

7 Inductive Modeling Details
Environmental Data WorldClim climate data Mean Diurnal Range Isothermality Precipitation of Wettest Month Precipitation of Driest Month Precipitation Seasonality Digital Elevation Data Elevation, slope, exposure MODIS Vegetation/Tree Cover Variables Averaged Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

8 Sample MODIS Data

9 Inductive Modeling Details
Maximum Entropy Proven in three comparative studies Tested in diverse conditions Does well with small samples Software publicly available Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

10 Deductive Modeling Details
Variables Elevational range Mountain range Estimated range of a population Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer

11 Steps I Select species Identify sources of localities Request data
Peru/Bolivia: support digitization Compile data Remove duplicate records Georeference localities First cut QC Remove/correct obvious errors

12 Unreviewed Plant Data

13 Steps II Second cut QC Run trial models Third cut QC Run final models
Specialists review localities Run trial models Select final input variables Third cut QC Remove/correct outliers in environmental space Run final models Remove overpredicted area

14 Versicolored Barbet, Eubucco versicolor

15 Steps II Second cut QC Run trial models Third cut QC Run final models
Specialists review localities Run trial models Select final input variables Third cut QC Remove/correct outliers in environmental space Run final models Remove overpredicted area

16 Daphne's Oldfield Mouse, Thomasomys daphne

17 Incan Shrew Opossum, Lestoros inca
Photo by B. Patterson

18 Hooded Mountain-Toucan, Andigena cucullata

19 Golden-collared Tanager, Iridosornis jelskii

20 Selva Cacique, Cacicus koepckeae

21 Centers of Endemism - Birds

22 Mammals

23 Amphibians

24 Next Step: Aggregate Data to ID Endemism Centers
Control for range size Control for collecting bias  Much more accurate distribution maps for meso-scale conservation. Source: Nelson et al. 1990

25 Then … Predict Hidden Areas of Endemism
Modeling Endemism centers Independent environmental data layers June workshop to define methods

26 Collaborators Modelers Pilar Hernandez Heidi Quintana Aldo Soto
Carolina Tovar Data Managers Lily Paniagua Martin Timaná Carlos Zambrana Data Reviewers César Aguilar Jesús Córdova Irma Franke Sebastian Herzog Daniel Lane John O’Neill Victor Pacheco Lily Rodríguez Thómas Valqui + many plant systematists

27 Sources of Locality Information
Natural History Museums The Academy of Natural Sciences American Natural History Museum Armonia British Museum Carnegie Museum of Natural History Centro de Datos para la Conservación - Perú Colección Boliviana de Fauna Copenhagan University Delaware Museum of Natural History Field Museum of Natural History Fundacion Amigos de la Naturaleza Louisiana State University, Museum of Natural Science Noel Kempff Mercado Natural History Museum United States National Museum of Natural History Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos University of California, Berkeley, Museum of Vertebrate Zoology University of Kansas, Museum of Natural History University of Michigan, Museum of Zoology University of New Mexico, Museum of Southwestern Biology University of San Simon, Cochabamba, Bolivia Yale Peabody Museum Plus 5 scientists

28 Sources of Locality Information
Herbaria Herbarium. Naturhistorisches Museum Wien. Vienna Herbarium. Pomona College Herbarium. Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew Herbarium. University of Michigan Herbarium. Uppsala University Herbarium. Academy of Natural Sciences. Herbarium. Albrecht-von-Haller-Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften Herbarium. California Academy of Sciences. San Francisco, California. Herbarium. Heidelberger Institut für Pflanzenwissenschaften Herbarium. Institut für Systematische Botanik. Universität Zürich Herbarium. Marie Selby Botanical Gardens Herbarium. Missoouri Botanical Garden Herbarium. National Museum in Prague Herbarium. Natural History Museum of Los Angeles County Herbarium. Rancho Santa Ana Botanic Garden Herbarium. Royal Botanic Garden. Edinburgh Herbarium. Swedish Museum of Natural History Herbarium. The Natural History Museum Herbarium. United States National Arboretum Herbarium. University of California. Los Angeles Herbarium. University of Copenhagen Herbarium. University of Texas at Austin Herbarium. V. L. Komarov Botanical Institute Herbier National de Paris. Nationaal Herbarium Nederland United States National Herbarium University Herbarium. University of California. Berkeley University of Aarhus Herbarium Jutlandicum William and Lynda Steere Herbarium. New York Botanical Garden Albion R. Hodgdon Herbarium. University of New Hampshire Bailey Hortorium Herbarium, Cornell University Botanical Museum. Lund, Sweden Botanischer Garten und Botanisches Museum Berlin-Dahlem. Conservatoire et Jardin botaniques de la Ville de Genève Daubeny Herbarium. University of Oxford Dudley Herbarium. California Academy of Sciences Field Museum of Natural History Fielding-Druce Herbarium. University of Oxford Harvard University Herbaria Herbario Amazonense. Univ. Nacional de la Amazónia Perúana Herbario del Oriente Boliviano. Mus. Historia Natural Noel Kempff Mercado Herbario Nacional Colombiano Herbario Nacional de Bolivia Herbario Nacional del Ecuador Herbario Nacional Forestal Martín Cárdenas. Cochabamba Herbario Nacional. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México Herbario Selva Central. Oxapampa, Perú. Herbario Vargas. Universidad Nacional San Antonio Abad del Cusco Herbario. Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima Herbario. Fundación Miguel Lillo. Tucuman, Argentina. Herbario. Instituto de Botánica Darwinion. Buenos Aires, Argentina. Herbario. Instituto de Botánica del Nordeste. Corrientes, Argentina. Herbario. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Buenos Aires Herbario. Proyecto BOLFOR. Santa Cruz, Bolivia Herbario. Real Jardín Botánico. Madrid, Spain. Herbario. Universidad Nacional Agraria La Molina. Lima Herbario. Universidad Nacional de Cajamarca Herbario. Universidad Nacional de Córdoba Herbário. Universidade de São Paulo Herbarium of the University of Arizona Herbarium Senckenbergianum Frankfurt Herbarium Truxillense. Universidad Nacional de La Libertad-Trujillo

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