1. Arto Kokkinen ESTAT, unit C.2
Task Force on GDP Flash estimates at t+30 days
Item 6 On GDP t+30 Eurostat results, on work done and still to be done
5th Meeting of the TF, Rome June, 2015
Arto Kokkinen ESTAT, unit C.2

2. Content Planned data work: how much is done…& what is still to be done
Results: test estimations
Estimation for real-time quarters
Estimation for back quarters (preliminary)
Results: comparison with the US t+30
Results: comparison with the quality criteria
Discussion on results
TF T+30, June 2015

3. 1. Data work done and still to be done …Nr
What
When
Who 1
Test calculations – ‘real time’ provision of national data every quarter from 2014Q1 onwards
End-Jan 2015, end-Apr 2015, etc.
Most TF Members 2
Production of EU and EA GDP test flash estimates, every quarter from 2014Q1 onwards
Begin-Feb 2015, begin-May 2015, etc.
ESTAT, CE 3
Test calculations – provision of national back data 2012Q Q4
December  February 2014
Most TF members 4
Test estimates for EA/EU, back data 2012Q1 – 2013Q4
Spring 2015 – Summer 2015
ESTAT, CE?
TF T+30, June 2015

4. 1. … Data work done and still to be doneNr
What
When
Who 5
Update of growth rate triangles for revision analyses – , – transmit your estimate in future with the growth rate template (with last quarter updated)
Spring 2015 – Summer Q2 onwards
TF Members, ESTAT TF Members (ESTAT updates as well) 6
Revision analysis on the test estimates – ,
Spring 2015 – Autumn 2015
ESTAT, WG quality 7
Calculation of data indicators and other analyses for Quality criteria (e.g. un-biasness of t+30?)
Summer 2015 – Autumn 2015
TF T+30, June 2014

5. 2a. Results test estimates (real-time quarters)…
Here on the left, as previously, you can see the country data used in the estimations
In the column T+30 test you can see the t+30 days' estimates
And in the column T+45 Flash the t+45 estimate for comparison

6. …2a. Results test estimates (real-time quarters)

7. 2b. Results test estimates (back-quarters, prelim.)…
TF T+30, June 2015

8. …2b. Results test estimates (back-quarters, prelim.)
TF T+30, June 2015

9. 2. Comparison: US with EU27/28 …
To suggest quality criteria in the Quality Working Group, to understand what the t+30 revision could be for similar size economic area, we had to find a benchmark.
We contacted BEA as the US has published GDP at t+30d since late 1970s. They kindly provided all the vintages of their quarterly GDP growth, this means 30 – 60 – 90 GDP growth rates for each quarter
The average absolute revision of the US growth has been since 2012Q ppt. This was taken as go / no go quality criteria for European t+30 test estimates: we should have our absolute revisions less or equal 0.13 ppt.
Now when we have preliminary back estimates we can compare our results with the US ones:
As you can see on the left hand side, the absolute revisions of US estimates vary between 0.03 and In the right hand side: our European test estimates the 65 – 30 d estimates' revisions vary btw and 0.12 and are hence smaller. The EU t+30 average absolute revision is 0.05 which is smaller than 0.13
In a similar manner, our test estimates' d revisions seem to be smaller than the US d estimates' revisions. Here the difference is even bigger. US has had some high figures in d revisions, e.g ppt for 2014Q1
One last thing is good to add here: we got a comment for the comparison with US: European GDP has been close to zero and not varied much since 2012, whereas US growth has been higher and varied more. What if the bigger revisions come because of higher growth rates in the US.
There is a way to check this: In the last line I have proportioned the average absolute revision to the standard deviation of the growth rate. By this way we proportionate the size of the revisions to the variation of the growth.
In the US case the average abs revisions were 32% of the std dev of growth. In the EU the same 'absolute revision relative to the variation of growth' was smaller, 19%. The same is even more clear in the vs. EU estimates.

10. …2. Comparison: US with EA17/18
Here you can see the same comparison of US with euro area 17/18. The conclusion is the same, ea test estimate revisions have been smaller than the revisions of the US t+30

11. 3. Comparison of results (so far) with quality criteria
Average revision between and +0.05, Now: EU -0.01, EA no more than 67% of revisions in same direction Now: EU 61.5%, EA 53.8%
T+30 average absolute revision ≤0.10 (to t+45) EU 0.05, EA and ≤ 0.13 (to t+65) EU 0.05, EA 0.06
For 2015 coverage national estimates > 70%
Five last quarter average: EU 77%, EA 78%
(4) Communication plan should be available …. on its way….)

12. 4. Discussion on test results (so far)
After 5 real-time and 8 back quarters the results do not look bad – some of the back estimates may look even too good, there will likely be revisions for EU/EA GDP which needs to be communicated
The work TF members have promptly done may result in publishing European GDP estimates at t+30 d. This has been discussed and suggested since
Congratulations !
TF T+30, June 2015

13. Thank you for your attention !
MANY THANKS FOR THE WORK DONE FOR YOUR COUNTRY ESTIMATES !
Comments, notions from TF members:
Please feel free to comment …
TF T+30, June 2015