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Modelling & Simulation Division Activities: A: Quantitative Modelling & Simulation: B: Data Warehousing, OLAP & Data Mining:

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Presentation on theme: "Modelling & Simulation Division Activities: A: Quantitative Modelling & Simulation: B: Data Warehousing, OLAP & Data Mining:"— Presentation transcript:


2 Modelling & Simulation Division Activities: A: Quantitative Modelling & Simulation: B: Data Warehousing, OLAP & Data Mining:

3 A.Quantitative Modelling & Simulation: Objectives: To: - Create awareness on modelling techniques; its benefits and the way to use them - Provide training and consultancy on OR, statistical and other quantitative techniques

4 - Make available the state-of-the-art modelling infrastructure facilities for use by the planner(s) and administrator(s) at the centre, state and district level - Development of indigenous software packages, and application development using sectorial integrated databases


6 SPECIFIC STUDIES/APPLICATIONS/ SYSTEMS-Associated With: Central Government: Simulation Model for Cadre Management User: Department of Personnel & Training Computerized Rolling Industry Supply Plan Model for All India Petroleum Products Movement-A linear programming model for transportation and distribution of major petroleum products User: OCC/Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas

7 POL consumption forecast for Indian Army User: Oil Coordination Committee (OCC)/Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas Price Anomalies System for Petroleum Product(s) at Retail Price Outlets - A mathematical model to decide level of imposition of surcharge for different modes of transports User: OCC/Ministry of Petroleum & Natural Gas

8 Medium Range Production Planning Optimization Model for Vizag Refinery - Monthly production/operation Plan - (Linear Programming Model) User: OCC/Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas Optimum Location, Number(s) and Capacities of LPG Bottling Plant(s) and Optimal Distribution Plan for a defined time horizon- A study User: OCC/Ministry of Petroleum and Natural Gas

9 Optimal Routing using Networking Techniques for Coal Movement throughout the country based on Djikstra Algorithm User: Energy Policy Division/Planning Commission Support to National Energy Model: Coal, Petroleum products and Natural Gas Models and Report Generation System User: High Power Committee on Energy Policy Planning/ Planning Commission

10 DSS for Optimal Import and Production Plan for Maximum Availability of DAP User: Department of Agriculture and Cooperation/Ministry of Agriculture Seasonally Adjusted Models for Indias Export and Re-export Series based on X-11 Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) methodology User: Ministry of Commerce

11 Computer Aided Optimization Model- Transportation and Distribution System for Fertilizer Movement User: Department of Agriculture and Cooperation/Ministry of Agriculture * A Decision Support Optimization Model for the Transportation and Distribution of Fertilizer Product Using Multi-objective criterion-Goal Programming User: Department of Fertilizer/Ministry of Agriculture

12 Statistical Modelling Support to the Working Group on fertilizers for the 9 th Five Year Plan User: Working Group/Department of Fertilizer/Ministry of Agriculture Policy Planning Model for the Effective Management of Public Distribution System User: Ministry of Food and Consumer Affairs

13 Forecasting and Monitoring Whole Sale Price Indices (WPI)-Rate of Inflation User: Planning Commission and Ministry of Industry Generalized model for optimal selection of nutritional diet-Proposal User: Department of Sports/Ministry of HRD

14 A study on Determinants for the Production of Steel in India User: Planning Commission/Ministry of Programme Implementation A Forecasting System for Index of Industrial Production(IIP) based on ARIMA Methodology User: Ministry of Industry

15 * TABGENIC: 6 th All India Education Survey-SIF-II Tabulation User: NCERT/Department of Education/Ministry of HRD Establishment of Project Management Cell in the Administrative Ministries for the Management of Central Sector Projects User: Office of the Cabinet Secretariat

16 Analysis and development of Project Management System for Khadia Coal Project User: Ministry of Coal and Mines ANALYST- General purpose interactive statistical analyses tool User: All NIC users-internal and external

17 Project Monitoring Model for Operations Blackboard - CPM PERT based system to provide minimum infrastructure facilities to every school throughout the country-monitoring and control system User: Department of Education, Ministry of Human Resource Development

18 Price Elasticity Analysis Study for Newspaper Circulation - To ascertain the effects of the prices of newspaper and per capita income on the newspaper circulation using Statistical Regression Model User: Economic Adviser, Ministry of Labour

19 A study on Crime Projections till 2000 AD - Interactive forecasting system for all India Violent, Non-violent crimes User: Bureau of Police Research & Development, Ministry of Home Affairs All India Fertilizer Distribution and Movement Plan System based on multi- objective criterion-Goal Programming User: DAC/Ministry of Agriculture

20 * Technical Proposal-Project Management System for monitoring and control-Ganga Action Plan Phase-II User: Ministry of Environment and Forest Performance Evaluation System for Indias export/import based on ARIMA methodology User: Ministry of Commerce

21 Appraisal Report on DOEACC Application System User: DOEACC/Department of Information Technology Demand Forecasting based on Neural Network for High Powered Fertilizer Committee, to review the international Pricing Policy for all fertilizers User: Research and Information System/ Ministry of External Affairs

22 Objective based software selection for Statistical/Econometric systems-A study User: Department of Economic Affairs/ Ministry of Finance National & Regional monthly demand forecast for N, P and K based on Neural Network approach User: Department of Agriculture & Cooperation(DAC)/Ministry of Agriculture Fertilizer Demand Projection(s) for the working group on fertilizer for 10 th five year plan period User: Department of Agriculture & Cooperation(DAC)/Ministry of Agriculture

23 PSUs/Autonomous Institutions: A System Study(Sizing) Report for computing requirements of NCAER User: National Council of Applied Economic Research * Computer Aided Forecasting Study-All India Fertilizer(N, P and K) Demand User: Fertilizer Association of India Feasibility study on Decision support system for optimal distribution of rural energy at district level-Proposal User: Tata Energy Research Institute

24 Investment planning model for the development of Inland Container Depot infrastructure for freight containers movement-Simulation Technique approach User: High Power Committee on Transport Planning/Planning Commission Development & Implementation of Transportation & Distribution plan system User: Madras Fertilizers, Chennai All India Fertilizers Demand projection(s) till year 2000 User: Fertilizer Association of India

25 Methodology for All India transportation and distribution of food grains-A study User: Food Corporation of India * CPM/PERT based Monitoring System for Construction of Food grain Storages User: Food Corporation of India * Appraisal Report on NJPC-TCS Study for Project Management Function User: Nathpa Jhakri Power Corporation

26 STATE GOVERNMENTS: Optimal Liquor Inventory Management System User: IMFL Division/Delhi Transport and Tourism Development Corporation/Government of Delhi System Study Report on PDS for Specified Food Articles Movement User: Delhi State Civil Supplies Corporation/Government of NCT

27 Decision Support System for Health Facility Planning in a state User: Government of Rajasthan Computer Aided Supervisor Assignment System for Board Examination-An Optimization System-A Study User: Department of Education/Haryana Government

28 Optimal Peak Electricity Load Management System User: Orissa Electricity Board/Government of Orissa Dead Mileage Reduction System for State Transport Corporation User: Karnataka State Transport Corporation/Government of Karnataka

29 *Computerized Reservoir Storage and Level Forecasting System using ARIMA User: Dhom Dam/Department of Irrigation/Government of Maharastra PDS Commodities Distribution and Movement Planning System User: Department of Food and Supply/Government of Gujarat Optimization System for Passenger Transport Facility Planning System- Maximizing the passenger bus services and maximizing the rate of return User: State Transport Corporation/Himachal Pradesh Government

30 Generalized Applications: Forecasting and Monitoring Based on ARIMA/Box-Jenkins Methodology Generalized Decision Support System for Transportation and Distribution Planning System using Multi-objective Criterion A Decision Support System(DSS) for Multi-Criteria Transportation and Distribution Problems

31 Forecast consultant for Final Forecasting Technique Selection Optimization algorithms(Linear and Goal Programming) using product form of inverse approach Optimal distribution of funds for different sectors of Indian economy using multi- objective goal programming approach Generalized ARIMA algorithm developed based on Box and Jenkins

32 Web based Agriculture/Food price monitoring system for District level markets Generalized Multi criterion Transportation & Distribution system based on GP for movement of all products(Fertilizer, Food grains, Coal Steel, etc.)

33 B. DATAWAREHOUSING, OLAP AND DATA MINING Data Warehouse/OLAP/Data Mining System for central sector projects - Projects Costing Rs.20 crores and above User: Ministry of Statistics & Programme Implementation


35 +Limited Foreign Exchange Availability +Three Type of Import Options 1. Finished product[i.e.,DAP] 2.Rock Phosphate+Sulphur 3.Phosphoric Acid+Ammonia +Option 2 and 3 also involves Production Cost +(Lead) Time Available +Port Handling Constraints Find out the Import Plan, which gives maximum DAP, which implies maximum utilization of Plants

36 COMPUTERIZED RESERVOIR STORAGE AND LEVEL FORECASTING SYSTEM USING ARIMA METHODOLOGY User: Dhom Dam/Department of Irrigation/Government of Maharashtra +Daily/Weekly Reservoir Storage Level Monitoring +Seven days ahead forecast of storage level using Univariate Box Jenkins ARIMA methodology

37 +MIS Query and Report system +Graphical display and analyses of storage level +Implemented in Dhom Dam of satara District, Maharastra +Developed on UNIX Platform +With some fine-tuning can be used in other dams

38 PDS COMMODITIES DISTRIBUTION AND MOVEMENT PLANNING SYSTEM User: Department of Food and Civil Supplies/Government of Gujarat +Fortnightly movement of Wheat and Rice and monthly for Sugar +Centre allocates the quantity every month [depending on the stock]

39 +FCI Regional Center, Gujarat identifies the quantity and the godowns from where the state has to lift +Limited Transport Vehicles +Limited Time +Huge Transport Cost involvement +Software constructs the optimization model; runs; generates the movement plan with minimum cost and time

40 FORECASTING AND MONITORING WHOLE SALE PRICE INDICES(WPI)- RATE OF INFLATION User: Planning Commission and Ministry of Industry +Only actual WPI values released by Advisor, Ministry of Industry have been used

41 +Actual Monthly Data from Apr 1982 to Mar 1993 used +Unvariate ARIMA Methodology used +The actual value for monthly price index is obtained after a time lag of two months

42 +The monthly price index is a simple arithmetic average of the corresponding weekly price indices of the month +The forecast model equation, along with various error statistics is provided

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