1. Making Predictions 11-6 Warm Up Problem of the Day Lesson Presentation
Course 1
Warm Up
Problem of the Day
Lesson Presentation

2. Making Predictions 11-6 Warm Up
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Warm Up
1. Zachary rolled a fair number cube twice. Find the probability of the number cube showing an odd number both times.
2. Larissa rolled a fair number cube twice. Find the probability of the number cube showing the same number both times. 1 4 __ 1 36
___

3. Making Predictions 11-6 Problem of the Day
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Problem of the Day
The average of three numbers is 45. If the average of the first two numbers is 47, what is the third number? 41

4. Making Predictions Learn to use probability to predict events. 11-6
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Learn to use probability to predict events.

5. Insert Lesson Title Here
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Insert Lesson Title Here
Vocabulary
prediction

6. Insert Lesson Title Here
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Insert Lesson Title Here
A prediction is a guess about something in the future. A way to make a prediction is to use probability.

7. Additional Example 1A: Using Probability to Make Prediction
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Additional Example 1A: Using Probability to Make Prediction
A. A store claims that 78% of shoppers end up buying something. Out of 1,000 shoppers, how many would you predict will buy something?
You can write a proportion. Remember that percent means “per hundred.”

8. Additional Example 1A Continued
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Additional Example 1A Continued 78
100
___ x
1000
____ =
Think: 78 out of 100 is how many out of 1,000.
The cross products are equal.
100 • x = 78 • 1,000
x is multiplied by 100.
100x = 78,000
Divide both sides by 100 to undo the multiplication.
100x
100
____
78,000
______ =
x = 780
You can predict that about 780 out of 1,000 customers will buy something.

9. Additional Example 1B: Using Probability to Make Predictions
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Additional Example 1B: Using Probability to Make Predictions
B. If you roll a number cube 30 times, how many times do you expect to roll a number greater than 2?
P(greater than 2) = = 4 6 __ 2 3 2 3 __ x 30
___ =
Think: 2 out of 3 is how many out of 30.
The cross products are equal.
3 • x = 2 • 30
x is multiplied by 3.
3x = 60

10. Additional Example 1B Continued
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Additional Example 1B Continued
Divide both sides by 3 to undo the multiplication. 3x 3 __ 60 =
x = 20
You can expect to roll a number greater than 2 about 20 times.

11. Making Predictions 11-6 Try This: Example 1A
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Try This: Example 1A
A. A store claims 62% of shoppers end up buying something. Out of 1,000 shoppers, how many would you predict will buy something?
You can write a proportion. Remember that percent means “per hundred.”

12. Try This: Example 1A Continued
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Try This: Example 1A Continued 62
100
___ x
1000
____ =
Think: 62 out of 100 is how many out of 1,000.
The cross products are equal.
100 • x = 62 • 1,000
x is multiplied by 100.
100x = 62,000
100x
100
____
62,000
______ =
Divide both sides by 100 to undo the multiplication.
x = 620
You can predict that about 620 out of 1,000 customers will buy something.

13. Making Predictions 11-6 Try This: Example 1B
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Try This: Example 1B
B. If you roll a number cube 30 times, how many times do you expect to roll a number greater than 3?
P(greater than 3) = = 3 6 __ 1 2 1 2 __ x 30
___ =
Think: 1 out of 2 is how many out of 30.
The cross products are equal.
2 • x = 1 • 30
x is multiplied by 2.
2x = 30

14. Try This: Example 1B Continued
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Try This: Example 1B Continued
Divide both sides by 2 to undo the multiplication. 2x 2 __ 30 =
x = 15
You can expect to roll a number greater than 3 about 15 times.

15. Additional Example 2: Problem Solving Application
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Additional Example 2: Problem Solving Application
A stadium sell yearly parking passes. If you have a parking pass, you can park at that stadium for any event during that year.
The managers of the stadium estimate that the probability that a person with a pass will attend any one event is 50%. The parking lot has 400 spaces. If the managers want the lot to be full at every event, how many passes should they sell?

16. Understand the Problem
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions 1
Understand the Problem
The answer will be the number of parking passes they should sell.
List the important information:
P(person with pass attends event): = 50%
There are 400 parking spaces 2
Make a Plan
The managers want to fill all 400 spaces. But on average, only 50% of parking pass holders will attend. So 50% of pass holders must equal 400. You can write an equation to find this number.

17. Making Predictions 11-6 Solve 3
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Solve 3
Think: 50 out of 100 is 400 out of how many? 50
100
___
400 x
____ =
The cross products are equal.
100 • 400 = 50 • x
x is multiplied by 50.
40,000 = 50x
Divide both sides by 50 to undo the multiplication.
40,000 50
______
50x
___ =
800 = x
The managers should sell 800 parking passes.

18. Insert Lesson Title Here
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Insert Lesson Title Here
Look Back 4
If the managers sold only 400 passes, the parking lot would not usually be full because only about 50% of the people with passes will attend any one event. The managers should sell more than 400 passes, so 800 is a reasonable answer.

19. Making Predictions 11-6 Try This: Example 2
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Try This: Example 2
A stadium sells yearly parking passes. If you have a parking pass, you can park at that stadium for any event during that year.
The managers estimate that the probability that a person with a pass will attend any one event is 60%. The parking lot has 600 spaces. If the managers want the lot to be full at every event, how many passes should they sell?

20. Understand the Problem
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions 1
Understand the Problem
The answer will be the number of parking passes they should sell.
List the important information:
P(person with pass attends event): = 60%
There are 600 parking spaces 2
Make a Plan
The managers want to fill all 600 spaces. But on average, only 60% of parking pass holders will attend. So 60% of pass holders must equal 600. You can write an equation to find this number.

21. Making Predictions 11-6 Solve 3 60 100 ___ 600 x ____
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Solve 3 60
100
___
600 x
____ =
Think: 60 out of 100 is 600 out of how many?
The cross products are equal.
100 • 600 = 60 • x
x is multiplied by 60.
60,000 = 60x
Divide both sides by 60 to undo the multiplication.
60,000 60
______
60x
___ =
1000 = x
The managers should sell 1000 parking passes.

22. Insert Lesson Title Here
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Insert Lesson Title Here
Look Back 4
If the managers sold only 600 passes, the parking lot would not usually be full because only about 50% of the people with passes will attend any one event. The managers should sell more than 600 passes, so 1000 is a reasonable answer.

23. Insert Lesson Title Here
Course 1
11-6
Making Predictions
Insert Lesson Title Here
Lesson Quiz: Part 1
1. The owner of a local pizzeria estimates that 72% of his customers order pepperoni on their on their pizza. Out of 250 orders taken in one day, how many would you predict to have pepperoni?
180

24. Insert Lesson Title Here
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11-6
Making Predictions
Insert Lesson Title Here
Lesson Quiz: Part 2
2. A bag contains 9 red chips, 4 blue chips, and 7 yellow chips. You pick a chip from the bag, record its color, and put the chip back in the bag. If you do this 100 times, how many times do you expect to remove a yellow chip from the bag?
3. A quality-control inspector has determined that 3% of the items he checks are defective. If the company he works for produces 3,000 items per day, how many does the inspector predict will be defective? 35 90