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Progress toward reconstructing life history variation, composition and fitness differences among sub-basin populations of UWR Chinook salmon M. Keefer1,

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Presentation on theme: "Progress toward reconstructing life history variation, composition and fitness differences among sub-basin populations of UWR Chinook salmon M. Keefer1,"— Presentation transcript:

1 Progress toward reconstructing life history variation, composition and fitness differences among sub-basin populations of UWR Chinook salmon M. Keefer1, S. Bourret1, C. Caudill1, B. Kennedy1, G. Taylor2, B. Clemens3, and C. Sharpe3 1Department of Fish and Wildlife Sciences, University of Idaho 2U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Willamette Valley Projects 3Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Corvallis Research Lab

2 Acknowledgements Dr. Chris Caudill Sam Bourret, MSc
Sam: “Not a Chinook salmon”

3 Acknowledgments NOAA – Kim Hatfield, Stephanie Burchfield
ODFW – Lisa Borgerson, Kanani Bowden, Tom Friesen, Wayne Vandernaald, Todd Alsbury, Jeff Ziller, Kelly Reis, Joy Vaughan, Shivonne Nesbit, Kirk Schroeder, Craig Tinus, Michele Weaver UI – Travis Dick, Theresa Tillson, Dan Joosten, Charlie Erdman WSU – Jeff Vervoort, Charles Knaack PGE – Tim Shibahara USACE – David Griffith, Rich Piaskowski, and Robert Wertheimer

4 Presentation Objectives
Literature review and WIL data assembly Examples of juvenile Chinook life history variation Movement & emigration timing Rearing habitat use Life History ‘Types’ and ‘Pathways’ Upper Willamette spring Chinook Life history variation among sub-basins Within populations Scale & Otolith datasets Juveniles and adults Back-assignment agreement?

5 Type 2: low productivity
Broader goals Estimate relative contribution of juvenile Chinook life histories to adult returns Some will inevitably be more/less ‘successful’ Fitness & Population growth implications Preserve ‘natural’ LH variation Buffer population Adaptation potential Understanding = effective management of Willamette Chinook Type 2: low productivity Type 3: highly adaptive Type 1: temperature intolerant

6 Chinook life history review
The ‘historical’ concept (Mattson 1962) “Early life history of WIL R spring Chinook salmon” Subyearling ‘Ocean –type’ Yearling ‘Stream-type’ Fall Win Spr Su Gravel Emerge Natal Trib Main-stem Estuary Ocean Clemens: Mattson after impoundment

7 Conceptual bits Emerging paradigm: life history
Subyearling Yearling 2-Year Old Fall Win Spr Su Gravel Emerge Natal Trib Non-natal river Reservoir Main-stem Estuary Ocean Conceptual bits Emerging paradigm: life history variation along a continuum, with many ‘pathways’

8 Chinook life history ‘pathways’
Stream-type yearling Main stem- Rearing yearling Reservoir- type yearling Apologize to the color blind Reservoir ‘entrapped’ 1+ Subyearling Estuary-rearing Bourret et al. (in prep)

9 Life History review: How we know what we think we know
Juvenile tagging, trapping, mark-recapture Luke Whitman: McKenzie case study (8:40 Wed) Scale morphometry ODFW Willamette Chinook database (OWCS) Ben Clemens talk (this session) Otolith microstructure and microchemistry

10 Chinook Life History (mark-recapture)
Snake River diversity Ocean-type sub-yearling vs Reservoir-rearing yearling: Lower Snake River Stream-type Natal-Reach-Rearing vs Down-Stream-Rearing: Marsh Creek, Middle Fork Salmon River Copeland et al (TAFS) Connor et al (TAFS)

11 WIL Chinook life history (trapping)
Chinook captured in USACE screw traps ~ : Fall Creek, Middle Fork ~10 cm Natal-reach Downstream ~4cm Clemens: enlarge graph ~28cm Keefer et al (Ecol Freshw Fish)

12 WIL Chinook life history (trapping)
McKenzie screw traps (ODFW) Romer et al. (2014, report to USACE) Wild Chinook below Cougar (SF McKenzie) Age 1+ (2 summers)

13 WIL Chinook life history (scales & otoliths)
What we can learn from otoliths Juvenile otoliths provide growth rate Microstructure Adult otoliths provide transition timing, age Microchemistry differentiates river, estuary, ocean What we can learn from scales Age, growth rate, some habitat transitions Morphology (+ chemistry in some cases)

14 ODFW’s Chinook scale database
ODFW’s Willamette Chinook Salmon (OWCS) Extensive archive Large effort 1,000s of scales with metadata = Life History goldmine

15 ~5 freshwater life histories for WIL Chinook identified
from scale patterns Age 1: ‘yearling’ 1st Annulus before ocean entry Age 0: ‘subyearling’ 1st Annulus after ocean entry Pattern XX: 2 reservoir years Pattern X: rapid growth; Annulus ~ ocean entry; ‘Reservoir rearing’ Winter migrant Pattern SX: combined stream + reservoir

16 WIL Chinook juvenile otoliths
Middle Fork Willamette Lookout Point reservoir Mean daily growth: NFMF vs Lookout Point Microstructure indicates reservoir-rearing fish grow faster Confirms scale growth data: type X NFMF Otolith isotope ratios: microchemistry shows partial separation among rearing habitats Signal in adult otoliths as well Bourret et al. 2014 (J Fish Biol) NFMF LOP

17 2014: adult otolith work expanded
Sample otoliths from ODFW archive Multiple Willamette sub-basins Multiple years ( ) Compare otolith LH with scale LH classification Total n = 128 adult otoliths with scale scores

18 WIL Chinook adult otoliths
Otolith core Yearling life history Transect Continues → Maternal signal Marine value Willamette Valley First annulus Sub-yearling life history

19 WIL Chinook adult otoliths
First annulus: 710 Ocean Entry: 673 Technically a Subyearling, but ocean entry near annulus Extended estuary rearing likely

20 Adult scales and otoliths: is there juvenile life history classification agreement?
Freshwater age – Structural and chemical Do life history classifications match? Clemens: is this a tautology? Juvenile growth and age

21 128 adult otoliths + scales (multiple sites)
ODFW Scale Classification 1 X XX 100% Otolith Classification Otolith: Maternal end to Freshwater exit X XX Scale N =

22 128 adult otoliths + scales
ODFW Scale Classification Modest agreement: Age 0 vs Age 1 (~81%) Adult otoliths do not have clear X, XX signals ‘X’ growth evident in juvenile otoliths, but obscured in adult otoliths Technological constraint currently 1 X XX 77% 14% 16% 23% 86% 100% 84% Otolith Classification

23 Adult scales and otoliths: agreement?
Two objectives: Scales reliably capture high juv growth rate Otoliths precisely capture ocean entry timing Why are X, XX fish difficult to classify? Reservoir-rearing fish enter ocean at age 0, 1, 1+ Annulus, saltwater entry overlap Adult Scales Adult Otoliths Juvenile growth ++ + Ocean entry +++ Campbell et al (TAFS)

24 Relative performance straw man
Current status: several sources of uncertainty regarding ‘relative’ contribution of LH types Classification accuracy Juvenile abundance × life history type Smolt-to-adult survival (SARs) × life history type Straw man proposal: a simple idea intended to generate discussion and to provoke the generation of new and better proposals.

25 Relative performance straw man
OWCS Scale database example: “Snapshot” Multiple years combined (~ ) Total N = 6,195 (some ambiguous fish censored) N = 991 183 1903 1698 487 432 125 288 Major operational change! Change color for color blind Within-basin composition also can vary widely among years

26 Relative performance straw man
S Santiam hypothetical: 4,000 adults (Foster) Juvenile life history composition (prev. slide) 63% subyearling, 22% yearling, 15% type ‘X’ Management alternatives to increase adults: Increase juvenile abundance Increase SARs Shift LH composition 4,000 adults 2,520 subs SAR = 1% ~400,000 juveniles Where on these curves is the management target? 880 yearlings SAR = 4% ~100,000 juveniles 600 ‘X’

27 Looking forward Lots of LH variation in Willamette Chinook
Expect continued confirmation and refinement Tools for LH classification have advanced Multi-lab scale classification QA/QC planned Expect rapid learning from ODFW datasets PIT data will provide SARs for some groups Brandt et al. (next presentation) Many potential management applications

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