1. Clutch hitting revisited
Pete Palmer and Dick Cramer

2. Why another study? Persistence of a controversy Bill James argues
“Clutchness” is objectively non-existent
vs. Human perceptions of pressure
Bill James argues
Clutchness might be obscured by the “fog” of random variation
Might this “fog” be overcome by clever grouping of players?
How do pressure situations affect batting generally?

3. Summary of Our Findings
Game situation does not significantly affect average batting performance
The “fog” of statistical variation is much thicker than almost anyone appreciates
The variation in career “clutchness” among the 897 players with >3000 BFP’s between 1957 and 2007 seems random
Ortiz and Mark Grace are tied for ~80th and ~100th rankings among the 897

4. All ML Hitters Under Pressure
OPS when:
“Pressure” Definition (who) Tense Other
Tensest 10% of BFP (best 897)
Elias “late close” 15% (all)
Tense Situations are different:
More intentional walks
Better pitchers
More pinch hitters

5. David Ortiz’s Clutch Performances by Season
2005
Win
Value
2006 10
2004
2003
2007
2000
2002
2001
1998
Linear
Weight
Runs
100

6. Comparing the “Fog” to the Clutch “Results”
Width => Fog Density:
calculated several ways
(probability theory,
simulation). All agree.
“Fog”
Scott
Fletcher
“Results”
Richard
Hidalgo
The other 895 players who:
had plate appearances
between 1957 and 2007

7. “Fog” Density: Starting Points
Many “pressure definitions” considered
All, weighted by “pressure”
10% highest “pressure”, vs. other 90%
Elias “late and close” (15%), vs. other 85%
First 100 batting appearances of player
Individual AB’s critical => noisy win average
Example: Adam Dunn on 6/30/2006
tensest 2% BFP == easiest 35% BFP

8. Most and least “clutch” players
Nellie Fox
Don Lock
Dave May
Pat Meares
Minnie Minoso
Desi Relaford
Jose Uribe
Sandy Alomar
Earl Williams
Damian Miller
Mike Lieberthal
Michael Barrett
Frank Thomas
Dick Schofield
Chris Sabo
Manny Ramirez

9. Other “pressure” non-effects
Clustering of “consecutive seasons”? (e.g., Ortiz ).
Overall, r2 for “clutchness” = .002
Overall, r2 for OPS = .43
The first 100 BFP’s of a career?
Performance distributions by pressure situations compared to performance distributions by game date

10. Conclusions
Yes, the fog that probability theory demands and empirical observation confirms is thick.
But why believe in something whose existence can objectively be demonstrated to be unprovable?
Especially since a “clutch” hitter must actually be someone who doesn’t always perform at his best!