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Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeathers parent company as a meteorologist in 1990. 2012 Spring Weather Outlook May Update
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ImpactWeather helps our clients worldwide operate safely, effectively and efficiently in all weather conditions.
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Fred Schmude StormWatch Manager ImpactWeather, Inc. fschmude@impactweather.com Fred specializes in hurricane forecasting, severe thunderstorms, winter weather monitoring and forecasting and long-range monthly and seasonal forecasting. He holds a BS in Geology from Texas Tech and a BS in Meteorology from Texas A&M. Fred joined ImpactWeathers parent company as a meteorologist in 1990. 2012 Spring Weather Outlook May Update
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Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7 Seasonal outlook forecasting Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification Offshore/marine forecasting year-round Customized weather websites Direct consultation with a meteorologist Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan Consulting Webinar Questions: fschmude@impactweather.com More information (877) 792-3220 sales@impactweather.com
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Spring Weather Outlook for 2012 Worldwide water temperature trends (including El Niño risks and effects) Review of spring tornado and high wind reports Review of the April temperature & precipitation pattern May weekly and monthly forecast (find the most vulnerable severe risk areas) May, June and July projected flow pattern & T/P forecast (identify most vulnerable severe risk areas) Summer outlook, including a brief tropical outlook Soil moisture and drought outlooks for the spring Tropics Sneak Preview
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Warming Water Developing El Niño? PDO Cold Phase Colder Water Small Negative IOD
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Current (-0.1C) El Niño La Niña ~+1.3C...Moderate El Niño
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El Niño La Niña
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Warmer Water Enhances Thunderstorm Development Warmer Water Enhances Thunderstorm Development Upper air outflow enhance upper-level wind shear Upper air outflow enhance upper-level wind shear Effects of Warming Water in Eastern Tropical Pacific
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Forecast ENSO Trends Initiation of EL Niño by early summer Likely to peak out in the early part of 2013 Likely to be moderate in intensity at about (+1.0 to +1.4C)
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REVIEW Tornadoes, Temperature, Rainfall and Flow Pattern from January thru May 1, 2012
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Average Trend 2005-2011 Current # Average
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Projected Precipitation Outlook for Apr-Jun, 2012 Elevated Severe Risk Area Elevated Severe Risk Area BEST CHANCE BEST CHANCE Mean Storm Track
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2011 2008 Projection ~1500
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Projection Current
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MUCH ABOVE NORMAL! +8 to +16F MUCH ABOVE NORMAL! +8 to +16F
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ABOVE NORMAL! +3 to +6F ABOVE NORMAL! +3 to +6F
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Projected Temperature Outlook for April, 2012
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WARMER North America April Temperature Anomalies
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WET DRY WET
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DRIER
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Projected Precipitation Outlook for April, 2012
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Lower Pressure Lower Pressure Lower Pressure Lower Pressure Higher Pressure Higher Pressure Higher Pressure Higher Pressure Higher Pressure Higher Pressure April Mean Flow Pattern
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April Mean Flow Pattern/Temp Overlay
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FORECAST
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+4 to +8F -3 to -6F Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Weather Trends for May 8 th -14 th, 2012 STORMY UNSETTLED Near Normal Near Normal Near Normal +2 to +4F +3 to +6F -2 to -4F HEAVY RAIN & FLOODING RISK HEAVY RAIN & FLOODING RISK -1 to -3F Near Normal UNSETTLED Mostly Dry Mostly Dry
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Weather Trends for May 15 th -21 st, 2012 Warmer Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Warmer Than Normal Cooler Than Normal Cooler Than Normal Near Normal STORMY UNSETTLED Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Mostly Dry Warmer Than Normal Near Normal
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Projected Temperature Outlook for May, 2012
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Projected Precipitation Outlook for May, 2012
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H H H H L L L L Mean Storm Track WARMER COOLER Enhanced Severe Weather Risk Projected Flow Pattern For May-July, 2012
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Projected Temperature Outlook for May-Jul, 2012
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Enhanced Severe Weather Risk Projected Precipitation Outlook for May-Jul, 2012
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Projected Temperature Outlook for July-Sept, 2012
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Projected Precipitation Outlook for July-Sept, 2012
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El Niño COOLER WATER Monitor for Home Grown Storm Gulf/ W Car. Tropics Sneak Peek For 2012 Higher Westerly Wind Shear Likely Negative Factor Another Negative Factor Risk will be lower than normal for a TC strike However, some very memorable TCs have occurred during +ENSO events Preliminary estimates call for 10-5-2
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Abnormally Dry (yellow) Moderate Drought (tan) Severe Drought (red) Exceptional Drought (dark red)
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DROUGHT WET SOIL
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Worldwide weather forecasting and notification 24/7 Seasonal outlook forecasting Severe terrestrial weather monitoring and automated notification Offshore/marine forecasting year-round Customized weather websites Direct consultation with a meteorologist Business Continuity, Employee Resiliency and Response Plan Consulting Webinar Questions: fschmude@impactweather.com More information (877) 792-3220 sales@impactweather.com
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