1. April 11th, 2018
SENTIMENT
NOTE
Slides Are for discussion and educational purposes ONLY!
Do not Trade from Any of these Charts.
The participants are not giving investment advise nor should be construed as such
Always consult a professional investment advisor before making any investment decisions.
The content of this slide should not be considered investment advice of any sort, nor should it be used to make investment decisions. Use of this slide is considered to be your explicit acceptance of the Disclosure Statement and the Terms of Use found on the last page of this document.

2. April 11th, 2018
SENTIMENT

3. April 11th, 2018
SENTIMENT
BACKGROUND
In an editorial entitled "WHAT WE KEEP FORGETTING ABOUT MARKET EUPHORIA & GREED" I outlined that in the Short Term the market reacts to Sentiment.
I showed that research by Dr Ed Yardeni indicated how closely) the Consumer Comfort Index in fact tracks the Forward S&P 500 PE.  The Consumer Comfort Index slightly leads which allows you to get a "Heads-Up" on a potential shift! 
I followed up with an article entitled "SENTIMENT: CONSUMER COMFORT CORRELATES WITH FORWARD S&P 500 PE" on

4. April 11th, 2018
SENTIMENT

5. U.S. Consumer Comfort Climbs to Fresh 17-Year High on Finances
April 11th, 2018
SENTIMENT
CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
U.S. Consumer Comfort Climbs to Fresh 17-Year High on Finances
U.S. consumer sentiment advanced to a fresh 17-year high as greater optimism about household finances and the buying climate more than offset a deterioration in views about the economy, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index showed.
HIGHLIGHTS OF CONSUMER COMFORT (WEEK ENDED MARCH 31) 
Weekly index rose to 57.2, the highest since Feb. 2001, from 56.8 
Personal finances measure rose to 64.7, highest since May 2007, from 63.8
Gauge tracking views of the economy fell to an eight-week low of 57.8 from 58.7
Comfort index of buying climate rose to 49.1, highest since 2000, from 47.8

6. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXES
April 11th, 2018
SENTIMENT
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE INDEXES V
57.2

7. CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX
April 11th, 2018
SENTIMENT
CONSUMER COMFORT INDEX V
57.2

8. The Fundamental Stock Market Indicator (FSMI)
April 11th, 2018
SENTIMENT
The Fundamental Stock Market Indicator (FSMI)
The FSMI isn’t a leading index of the S&P 500.
Nothing leads the S&P 500, since it is a leading indicator itself, and is one of the 10 components of the Conference Board’s Index of Leading Economic Indicators.
The FSMI simply confirms or raises doubts about the underlying trend in the stock market.

9. FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR (FSMI)
April 11th, 2018
SENTIMENT
FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR (FSMI)
The FSMI comprises just three components that reflect the underlying strength or weakness in the domestic and global economies. It is:
The average of the Consumer Comfort Index (which is a four-week average) – which we showed above,
The four-week average of the Boom-Bust Barometer
Which is the CRB raw industrials spot price index (weekly average),
Divided by weekly initial unemployment claims.

10. FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR (FSMI)
April 11th, 2018
SENTIMENT
FUNDAMENTAL STOCK MARKET INDICATOR (FSMI)
Its new high certainly confirms that the bullish trend in stocks remains intact.

11. BOOM-BUST BAROMETER COMPONENT
April 11th, 2018
SENTIMENT
BOOM-BUST BAROMETER COMPONENT

12. CONSUMER CONFIDENCE v BULL-BEAR RATIO
April 11th, 2018
SENTIMENT
CONSUMER CONFIDENCE v BULL-BEAR RATIO
The Bull-Bear Ratio Suggests that Consumer Confidence will soon begin falling

13. CONSUMER COMFORT v BULL-BEAR RATIO
April 11th, 2018
SENTIMENT
CONSUMER COMFORT v BULL-BEAR RATIO
The Bull-Bear Ratio Suggests that Consumer Comfort will also likely begin falling