1. Hydropower Flashpoints and Water Security Challenges in Central Asia
Bakhtiyor Mukhammadiev
US Embassy Tashkent
These slides are personal opinion only.
They do not necessarily reflect the opinion of the U.S. Government.

2. Central Asian ESTH News
Tajikistan: Water Is Weapon In Uzbek Electricity Talks
01/21/2009
Battle Lines Drawn In Central Asian Water Dispute
04/19/2006
Thaw in Tajik-Uzbek Relations
03/12/2009
Tajikistan Warns Of Possible Water Shortage Crisis
Tajikistan Offended By Russian Leader's Remarks On Water Use In Region
02/11/2008
Uzbekistan Will Halve Energy To Tajikistan
02/12/2010
Regional Politics Get In Way of Bringing Power to the People
03/03/2007
World Bank Group Statement on Water-Energy in Central Asia
03/11/2010
Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan to Build Hydro Power Station, Despite
Uzbekistan’s Objection
04/12/2009
Tajik President Asks UN to Help Solve Central Asia’s Water Problem
04/15/2007
Examination of Allies: What Side of the Fence will Moscow Take in the Water Dispute?
04/22/2006

4. The Amu-Darya River Basin

5. The Syr-Darya River Basin

6. 50%
25% 2% 1%
10%
5% / 12%
52%
20%
11% 5%
Total water resources: 116 km3/year

7. Central Asia Statistics
Countries
Population
(106)
(2009)
GDP
(109 USD)
Dependence on trans-boundary waters
(%)
Energy Security
Food Security
(2010)
ODA
(106 USD)
(2006)
Military Spending
(2007)
Kyrgyzstan
5.3
4.6 73 57
311
0.17
Tajikistan
7.0
5.0 69 31
240
0.53
Upstream
12.3
9.6 71 44
551
0.7
Kazakhstan
15.9
115 42
100
172
1.6
Turkmenistan
5.1 20 94 50 26
1.1
Uzbekistan
27.8 32 77 55
149
Downstream
48.8
139 65
347
4.3
Central Asia
61.1
167 18 86
58.6
898

8. New dimensions of regional security in Central Asia
90% and 95% of energy in Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan come from hydro
Energy Security
Food
Security
Water Security
Water security is a common feature
Food security/Water scarcity/Access to Water/Pro-poor Irrigation
Environ-mental Security
Environmental refugees
(Environment and Security Initiative)

9. Understanding Central Asia
HISTORY
LEGACY
RELIGION
POLITICS
SECURITY
GEOPOLITICS
ECONOMICS
NATION-BUILDING

10. Understanding Water in Central Asia
Resource sovereignty
Crumbling infrastructure
Planned Projects
Access to water
Environmental security
Drought & floods
Rivalry
Water for Afghanistan
Climate change
Declaratory regionalism
Energy security
Importance & dependence on water
Resource sovereignty
Rival objectives for allocations
In search of legitimacy for unilateral actions
Risk factors (population growth, climate change)
Water geopolitics (Manas case)
Afghanistan
Institutions, agreements

11. Amu-Darya and Syr-Darya Rivers
Aral Sea Basin
Water Balance
Amu-Darya and Syr-Darya Rivers
(116 km3)
Groundwater
(13 km3)
Total
(129 km3=100%)
Total
withdrawals
(120 km3=93%)
Return water
33 km3=29%
Discharged into
depressions
(10 km3=30%)
Back to rivers
(18 km3=55%)
Reused water
(5 km3=15%)
Natural
losses
(6.5 km3=5%)
Aral Sea
(N/A)
Irrigation, 90%
Industry, 5.4%
Drinking, 3.2%
Env. flow, 1.4%

12. Central Asian Water Related Agreements
BWO Syr-Darya
UDC Energy
Irrigation-energy trade-offs
Agreement on Use of Water and Energy Resources of Syr-Darya Basin
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Uzbekistan
04/17/1998
Bishkek, Kyrgyzstan
TM Ministry of Water, UZ Ministry of Ag and Water
50/50 division of Amu-Darya flow at Kerki river post
Agreement on Cooperation in Water Management Issues
Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
01/16/1996
Charjev, Turkmenistan
ICAS/IFAS
Sustainable development; obligation to cooperate
Agreement on Joint Activities to Address the Aral Sea Issues
Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan
03/26/1993
Kyzylorda,
Kazakhstan
ICWC; BWO Amu-Darya; BWO Syr-Darya
Institutions
Soviet time water allocation rules prevail; joint decision making; not to cause harm
Governing Rules
Agreement on Cooperation in Management of Use and Protection of Water Resources of Interstate Sources
02/18/1992
Almaty, Kazakhstan
Title
Parties
Date/place

13. Central Asian Regional Institutions
HEADS OF STATE COUNCIL
EC IFAS Branch
in Nukus,
Uzbekistan
in Kyzylorda,
Kazakhstan
in Dashauz,
Turkmenistan
International Fund to Save
the Aral Sea (IFAS) President
IFAS
Board of Directors
Executive Committee
(Almaty)
Interstate Commission
for Water Coordination
Interstate
Commission for Sustainable
Development
Secretariat
Scientific Information Center
(Ashgabat)
Scientific-Information Center
(Tashkent)
BWO
Syr-Darya
Amu-Darya
(Urgench)

14. TAJIKISTAN UZBEKISTAN TURKMENISTAN AFGHANISTAN1
ROGHUN
UZBEKISTAN
Shurob 2
ROGHUN
NUREK 3
Status: Under construction
Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation
Volume: 13 km3
Capacity: 3600 MW
Cost: Billion USD
Status: Under construction
Purpose: Hydropower
Duration:
Capacity: MW
Cost: 650 and 182 Million USD
SANGTUDA 1 & 2
Baipaza 4
TURKMENISTAN 5
Sangtuda-1 6
Sangtuda-2 7
Golovnaya
Perepadnaya 8 10
DASHTIJUM
Tsentralnaya 9
Status: Proposed
Purpose: Hydropower, irrigation
Volume: 17.6 km3
Capacity: 4000 MW
Cost: 3.2 Billion USD
DASHTIJUM
AFGHANISTAN

15. Unilateral developments Syr-Darya Basin: Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan
Koksaray Reservoir in KZ
Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releases
Volume: 3 km3
Duration:
Cost: 200 Million USD
Status: Completed
Kambarata I&II Projects in KG
Purpose: Hydropower
Volume: 4.7 km3
Duration:
Capacity: MW
Cost: 2.2 Billion USD
Status: Under construction
Fergana Reservoirs in UZ
Purpose: Re-regulation of upstream winter releases
Volume: 2.5 km3
Duration:
Cost: N/A
Status: Under construction

16. Unilateral developments Golden Century Lake of Turkmenistan
Amudarya River
Unilateral developments Golden Century Lake of Turkmenistan
Uzbekistan
Karashor Depression:
Golden Century Lake site
Purpose: Agricultural development
Duration:
Volume: 132 km3
Cost: 9 Billion USD
Status: Under construction
Turkmenistan
Golden Century Canal
Karakum Canal
Afghanistan
Iran

17. [possible] Unilateral Development Amu-Darya River Basin: Afghanistan
STATUS-QUO
According to the 1946 agreement between the Soviet Union and Afghanistan, Afghanistan is entitled to use up to 9 km3/yr from the River Pyanj, a tributary of the Amu-Darya. Afghanistan currently uses about 2 km3/yr.
PROPOSED PROJECTS
Proposed 15% expansion of irrigated lands in the northern Afghanistan region, which contribute to the Amudarya flow, may require an increase of withdrawals by 6 km3/yr.
POTENTIAL IMPACT
Full use of Afghanistan’s quota for water use from the Pyanj (9 km3/yr), fixed by the 1946 agreement, could radically change the water flow along the Pyanj and would have a significant impact on the downstream flow regime of the Amu-Darya.

18. Riparian positions: TAJIKISTAN
“…Tajikistan has the right to develop hydropower potential along its domestic waterways. These include the Vakhsh River…”
President of Tajikistan Mr. Emomali Rakhmon,
UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York
Address by the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Tajikistan Hamrokhon Zarifi at the 17th OSCE Ministerial Council Meeting, Athens, 12/01/2009
“…The construction of Roghun Hydropower Plant on the Vakhsh River will not harm downstream interests…the Vakhsh River is responsible for only a small part of Amu-Darya flow, upstream from the existing Nurek dam, so it cannot hold back water…”
Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009
“…Tajikistan worried about inefficiencies in water use in downstream countries. Total surface area of reservoirs in downstream countries is more than the Aral Sea, and more are being constructed…”
Remarks of President Emomali Rakhmon at the IFAS Heads of State Summit, Almaty, 04/28/2009
“…Largest share of Central Asian water originates in Tajikistan…Tajikistan has a vested interest in maintaining adequate water. Tajikistan is concerned about global warming and glacial melt, which affects water supply…”
Address by the President Emomali Rakhmon at the Roghun HPP site, 10/29/2009

19. Riparian positions: KYRGYZSTAN
“…in such a difficult time for Kyrgyzstan, a launching of the first hydro-generator of Kambarata HPP-1 is a historic event for the country. Construction and launch of this HPP demonstrates the power of our country, and we do not intend to abandon the constructions of Kambarata-2 and Kambarata-1…We will be able to live well in both winter and summer, and are increasing our [electricity] export potential…Of course, we will cooperate on this plan with Uzbekistan…”
Kyrgyzstan's acting President Roza Otunbayeva presses a symbolic red button to start the first unit of hydroelectric power station Kambarata-2, 08/30/2010
Remarks of President Ms. Roza Otunbayeva at the launching ceremony of the first aggregate of the Kambarata-2 HPP, 08/30/2010
“…Kyrgyzstan is interested in rational utilization of water resources, in raising its investment potential [for hydropower projects], environmental safety and development of alternative energy sources, implementation of regional hydropower projects under the CASAREM, and primarily in the construction of transmission lines Kyrgyzstan-Tajikistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan…”
Remarks of Minister of Foreign Affairs of Kyrgyz Republic Mr. Ruslan Kazakbaev, UN MDG Summit, 09/27/2010, New York

20. Riparian positions: UZBEKISTAN
“…New hydropower projects in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan violate existing agreements and are against to international law. Both Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan must receive prior-consent of downstream countries…”
President of Uzbekistan Mr. Islam Karimov,
UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 02/23/2008
“…Uzbekistan stands firm on the need for binding international examination of all hydropower projects on transboundary rivers…such examinations must be carried out under the aegis of UN and include independent authoritative experts…”
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009
“…In accordance with international customary law, upstream countries are under obligation not to cause significant harm and to prevent, control and reduce transboundary impacts…”
Address by President Islam Karimov to the participants of the
International Aral Sea Conference, Tashkent, 04/11/2008
“… …The resolution of [water/energy] problems is the exclusive prerogative of the countries in the region… the interferences of the third parties/countries in water/energy problems of Central Asia is unacceptable…”
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/14/2009
“…Upstream countries can save energy through electricity loss reduction programs...[or] consider building smaller hydropower plants…”
Press Release of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Uzbekistan, 04/24/2009

21. Riparian positions: KAZAKHSTAN
“…Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, being countries downstream of the Syr Darya and Amu Darya rivers, need guarantees [offered by international feasibility studies]…It is a question of water supply to millions of people…Until the results of [international] expert testing are available, no dam should be built…”
President of Kazakhstan
Mr. Nursultan Nazarbayev,
United Nations
Remarks of President Nazarbayev,
Press Briefing with President Karimov, Tashkent, Uzbekistan, 03/18/2010
“…"Over time, this [water] problem may turn out very large (and) it is necessary to secure drinking water for the entire Central Asian region…Why not recall a project to divert the flow of Siberian rivers into Central Asia?…”
Remarks of President Nazarbayev,
Press Briefing with President Medvedev, Ust-Kamenogorsk, Kazakhstan, 09/08/2010
“…it is important for Kazakhstan to address the issues of joint management and rational use of transboundary water resources of the [Central Asian] region through co-financing of regional projects of water management…”
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Kazakhstan

22. Riparian positions: TURKMENISTAN
“…we must resolve these issues exclusively based on the universally accepted norms and principles of international law taking into account the interests of all States in the region and with participation of international organizations…”
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov,
IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009
“…the need for mandatory and transparent independent international technical, economic and environmental impact assessment of hydropower projects on rivers at their early design stages…”
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov,
IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009
“… Turkmenistan stands ready to supply neighbors with natural gas, LNG, and electricity. Once we solve the problem of energy, we can easterly solve the problem of water…”
President of Turkmenistan
Mr. Gurbanguly Berdymuhamedov,
UN MDG Summit, 09/20/2010, New York
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov,
IFAS Heads of State Summit, 04/28/2009
“…Turkmenistan urges the countries in the region - Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan to make a joint compensation to help [Tajikistan] resolve its energy problems, in exchange for a commitment to maintain the current level of water [Tajikistan] draws from cross-border rivers...”
Remarks of President Berdymuhamedov at the meeting with President Rakhmon, 10/01/2009

23. Planned Roghun HPP & Reservoir on the Vakhsh River (Embassy Dushanbe)
Roghun designed in Tashkent by Soviet experts. Built – like Nurek – to withstand 9+ earthquake;
Vakhsh cascade designed as a 2-reservoir system: upstream (Roghun) dam operates in energy mode, the downstream (Nurek) in irrigation mode;
Roghun would open up hundreds of thousands of hectares of land for cultivation in Uzbekistan;
Tajikistan would never harm downstream neighbors – anyway, Roghun upstream from Nurek, so cannot hold back water;
Bigger problem in Central Asia is unchecked construction of new downstream reservoirs. This is killing the Aral Sea;
Tajikistan forced to provide for its own energy needs because it is excluded from regional exchanges.
Roghun site 2008
Roghun site 2010
Nurek Dam
Nurek reservoir

24. Government of Uzbekistan Expert Opinion on Roghun (November 2008)
Engineering design of Roghun HPS violates international rules;
Amu-Darya’s natural runoff plainly matches irrigation requirements (80% of the runoff occurs from Apr thru Oct);
Roghun operation in energy mode would create water shortages downstream (22% less water on average);
The dam site is located within seismically active zone; construction of the dam can provoke stronger earthquakes; destruction of the dam caused by earthquake would flood large populated areas in TJ, AF, UZ and TU;
Large winter releases would cause land deterioration in lowlands;
Reduced summer releases would cause salt accumulation in large irrigated fields downstream;
$4.1 billion/year direct economic damages from loss of grain and cotton yields, processing and fishing industry;
$146.5 million environmental damages (reduction of riparian woodlands, pastures, extinction of animal and bird species);
Economic damages would affect 12 million people in Uzbekistan and 6 million people in Turkmenistan;
Energy regime of Roghun would worsen potable water supply to 18 million people in downstream;
Alternative to the Roghun would be to construct small hydropower dams with daily regulation of storages.

25. World Bank Roghun Project Assessment Studies
- The Five-Point Program -
Consultant (Assessment) Studies
The Bank will oversee consultant studies financed under IDA grant and credit to GOT, including a selection of consultants, contract negotiations and review of all interim and draft reports. The Bank will also affect direct payment to the consultants. All short-listed consultants have been selected thru ICB and are experienced in similar projects.
Regional Studies
The bank will undertake certain studies independently of GOT, funded thru Bank managed trust funds. These studies will focus on: (a) alternatives to Roghun to meet both domestic energy needs and export opportunities; (b) possible mechanisms to manage reservoir operations with transboundary impacts; and (c) verification of hydrological data and analysis.
Panels of Experts
The Bank will select, manage and fund two International Panels of Experts that will participate in the studies and provide independent advice, guidance and quality assurance. Panel members will be well-know in their fields of expertise and will be drawn from outside former Soviet republics to ensure independence. The Engineering/Dam Safety Panel will focus on TEAS while the Environment/Social Panel will focus on the ESIA; however, the Panels shall coordinate and ensure necessary linkages between the two studies (Note: These Panels are usually convened by the Borrower)
Riparian Involvement
The Bank will facilitate a structured process for riparian involvement in the Assessment Studies, to include information exchange and access to independent experts. The specific program will be determined with input from riparians.
Commitments
GOT has committed to fully comply with all Bank operational policies and to align construction with study results; specifically as it concerns the construction of the coffer dam. The Bank’s involvement is contingent on ongoing GOT commitment to the operation policies and ensuring no river diversion prior to completion of studies.
Assessment Studies for Proposed Rogun Regional Water Reservoir and Hydropower Project in Tajikistan
In response to a request from the Government of the Republic of Tajikistan, the World Bank is supporting the preparation of two studies on the proposed Rogun Regional Water Reservoir and Hydropower Project in Tajikistan (Rogun HPP) through a combined International Development Association (IDA) grant and credit. The two studies are:
Techno-Economic Assessment Study (TEAS); and
Environmental and Social Impact Assessment (ESIA)
These Assessment Studies will examine the potential benefits and risks of the proposed Rogun HPP and comprehensively evaluate its technical, economic, social, and environmental viability based on the current international standards and practices and in accordance with the Bank’s policies and procedures. They will provide the Government of Tajikistan, the World Bank, the other Central Asian countries and the international community with information about key elements associated with the proposed Rogun HPP.
The proposed Assessment Studies, which could take approximately 18 months to complete from their commencement, have already benefited from extensive consultations on their Terms of Reference, which the World Bank facilitated in with the governments of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan, and Afghanistan.
In supporting the Rogun Assessment Studies, as part of the Central Asia Energy-Water Development Program, the World Bank has committed to an expanded role to ensure credible, transparent assessments that are open to international scrutiny and riparian dialogue. World Bank’s role includes the following steps:
Oversee Assessment Studies, including review of selection of consultants, attendance at contract negotiations, and review of all interim and draft reports.
Manage direct payments to the firms selected to undertake the Assessment Studies.
Undertake additional studies (to be funded by the World Bank or World Bank-managed Trust Funds), including studies of the energy supply and water management alternatives to the proposed Rogun Regional Water Reservoir and Hydropower Project that will be undertaken in parallel to the Assessment Studies.
Select and manage two independent Panels of Experts (to be funded by the World Bank or World Bank-managed Trust Funds) that will participate in the studies, providing objective advice, guidance and quality assurance.
Facilitate a structured process for riparian involvement, including information exchange and access to independent experts.
Additional studies that the World Bank will undertake in addition to IDA support for the Rogun Assessment Studies and independently of the Government of Tajikistan will focus on:
Assessment of options and alternatives to a proposed Rogun HPP which is a usual component to the project assessment. The World Bank will undertake this study to consider the range of options to meet energy security needs, water management services, and help harness the potential for energy exports in Tajikistan. The study will help the Government, the Bank and the international community to better understand the range of investment options for energy and water security at the least cost and highest development value.
Possible mechanisms to manage reservoir operations with transboundary impacts.
Hydrologic data and analysis which will further establish the credibility of the water analysis in the Assessment Studies.
The studies undertaken by the World Bank will be funded by the World Bank or World Bank-managed Trust Funds in parallel with the Assessment Studies on the proposed Rogun HPP.
At this time, the World Bank has reached an understanding with the Government of Tajikistan that no new construction would commence until after the techno-economic and environmental/social studies have been shared and discussed with riparians, and the studies are reviewed by the independent Bank-funded Panel of Experts to determine feasibility.

26. Timeline of Water-related Institutional and Treaty Events
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
1999
2000
2007: UZ accedes
to 1992 UNECE
and 1997 UN
Water Conventions
1998: UN Special
Program for Economies
of Central Asia
2001: Shanghai
Cooperation
Organization
2001: Eurasian
Economic
Community
1992: Economic
1997: Central Asian
Economic Cooperation
1994: Central Asian
1993: Commonwealth
of Independent
States
1992: Almaty
Agreement:
ICWC, BWOs
1993: Kyzylorda
ICAS / IFAS
Collapse of USSR
1994: Aral Sea
Basin Program
Phase I
1998: Syrdarya
Framework
Agreement
2002: Dushanbe
Declaration
of Heads of State
1996: Amudarya
Agreement between
UZ and TU
2000: Chu-Talas
KG and KZ
2006: MoU
between
AF and TJ
2000: KZ accedes
Water Convention
1995: Nukus
2002: Aral Sea
Phase II
1999: Agreements
on (1) Hydrometeorology
and (2) Parallel Operation
of Energy Systems
2001: TW Framework Agreement between
KZ and CN
2006: Framework
Agreement on
EP and SD in CA
2009: Heads of State Joint Statement
2010: Aral Sea
Basin Program
Phase III

27. Our Bottom Line: During the next 10 years, many countries important to the United States will experience water problems—shortages, poor water quality, or floods—that will risk instability and state failure, increase regional tensions, and distract them from working with the United States on important US policy objectives. Between now and 2040, fresh water availability will not keep up with demand absent more effective management of water resources. Water problems will hinder the ability of key countries to produce food and generate energy, posing a risk to global food markets and hobbling economic growth. As a result of demographic and economic development pressures, North Africa, the Middle East, and South Asia will face major challenges coping with water problems.

28. The Aral Sea
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011