1. Socio-Economic Inputs Presented by: Pierre van Jaarsveld

2. Contents 1. Status Quo 2. Growth Drivers 3. Economic Analysis 4. Economic Growth Scenarios 5. Financial Implication of Water Reduction 2

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4. Age Profile 4

5. Race Profile 5

6. Population Density 6

7. Population Size 200120072010 (est.)Growth Rate Mbombela LM476,593527,203546,4111.2% Source: Urban-Econ calculations based on Statistics SA data 7

8. Annual Household Income 8

9. Income Expenditure 9

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11. Growth Drivers 1. Population Growth Drivers 1. Birth and Death Rates 2. Migration Patterns 2. Economic Growth Drivers 1. Sources of Economic Growth 1. production inputs 2. productivity of production inputs 2. Proximate determinants of economic growth 1. Skills level, Infrastructure, land and technology 11

12. Growth Drivers (2) 3. Fundamental Growth Drivers 1. Labour 2. Capital 3. Investments 4. Skills Development 5. Infrastructure 6. Competitive Advantage 7. SMMEs 8. HIV/AIDS 4. Employment Growth Drivers 3. Quality of labour force 4. Economic growth 5. Human resource development 12

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14. Production Structure (2011) 14

15. Production Structure 2011 (Rmillion) Mbombela Total GVA (2011) = R17,305,200,000 15

16. Production Structure (2001-2011) 16 Sector200120062011 Primary Sectors Agriculture4.7%3.5%3.7% Mining2.4%3.2%2.8% Secondary Sectors Manufacturing20.3%19.4%19.5% Utilities2.4%2.1%1.9% Construction2.5%2.7%3.1% Tertiary Sectors Trade Sector16.4%14.8%13.3% Transport and Communications11.5%10.8%9.9% Finance and Business Services17.2%20.1%20.7% Community Services8.0%8.4%8.5% Government Services14.5%14.9%16.6% Total100%

17. Employment (1996-2011) 17 Sector1996200120062011 Agriculture19.8%18.9%14.1%7.6% Mining1.6%0.7%1.1%2.7% Manufacturing14.8%11.1%9.4%6.3% Utilities0.6% 0.7% Construction9.4%6.9%5.7%4.5% Trade and Accommodation 16.6%20.2%18.7%16.6% Transport and Communications 3.2%2.7%2.8%2.3% Finance and Business Services 9.2%11.8%15.9%18.4% Community Services12.1%14.2%16.0%17.5% Government Services12.7%12.9%15.8%23.4% Total100%

18. Tress Index (Level of Concentration) Diversified 0 Concentrated 100 Mbombela 47.2 18 SectorContribution (%)WeightWeighted Value Agriculture3.7%414.9 Mining2.8%25.6 Manufacturing19.5%7136.7 Utilities1.9%11.9 Construction3.1%39.4 Trade Sector13.3%680.0 Transport & communication 9.9%549.6 Finance and business20.7%8165.5 Services25.0%9225.4 Total100% 688.9 Tress Index47.2

19. Location Quotient 19 Sector Location Quotient (2011) Label Agriculture0.97Medium Mining0.18Low Manufacturing0.90Medium Utilities0.49Low Construction1.16Medium Trade Sector1.09Medium Transport & communication0.91Medium Finance and business services1.38High Community Services1.24Medium Government Services1.20Medium

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21. Economic Growth Scenarios (Rmillion) 201220152020202520302035 Historic 17,82819,77624,44029,13133,69439,713 High 17,88020,04025,85832,54339,42749,745 Low 17,77519,47523,25026,63829,24830,617 3.54% 4.55% 2.38% 21

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23. Current Water Usage Source: IWR Water Resources and Mbombela LM 23 m 3 /annumMl/annumMl/day Industrial19,018,00019,01852 Urban/Domestic52,988,80052,989145 Irrigation147,000,000147,000403 Forestry52,000,00052,000142

24. Monetary Value of Water Current Monetary Value of Water Based on Gross Value Added (GVA) Agriculture and Industrial * Primary Value Water Usage (Ml/annum)GVA (Rmillion)Rand/Ml 271,00717,828R 65 783.21 Rand/Ml AgricultureR 3,366 * IndustrialR 183,199 24

25. Reducing the water usage of Agriculture by 10% 25

26. Agricultural Sector The agricultural sector is a primary sector that provides product inputs to: Manufacturing Trade Transport Business services 26

27. Manufacturing Sector Has 10 sub sectors: 1. Food, beverages and tobacco 2. Textiles, clothing and leather goods 3. Wood, paper, publishing and printing 4. Petroleum products, chemicals, rubber and plastic 5. Other non-metal mineral products 6. Metals, metal products, machinery and equipment 7. Electrical machinery and apparatus 8. Radio, TV, instruments, watches and clocks 9. Transport equipment 10. Furniture and other manufacturing 27

28. Manufacturing Sub-Sectors Four of the sub-sectors are directly related to the agricultural sector: Food, beverages and tobacco Textiles, clothing and leather goods Wood, paper, publishing and printing Furniture and other manufacturing 28

29. Financial Impact Assumptions Assumptions The impact is a snapshot of the current (2012) economic production. Historic growth trends will continue Elements not taken into consideration Economic growth cycles Severe climatic conditions (drought, floods, etc.) Water consumption changes Water losses Demographic changes (population growth, migration, illegal immigrants, etc.) * Comprehensive Scenario Testing is needed for more reliable data 29

30. A Financial Impact of 10% 30 10% ImpactLoss as a percentage of Total GVA Agriculture 0.38% Manufacturing1.23%

31. A Financial Impact of 15% 15% ImpactLoss as a Percentage of Total GVA Agriculture 0.56% Manufacturing 1.85% 31

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