1. Improving Development Results Through Excellence in Evaluation
Vinod Thomas, Director-General Evaluation
Executive Directors’ Induction
December 11, 2008

2. Origins of evaluation at the World Bank Group
“All large organizations,…if they’re honest with themselves, will admit that they have successes and failures. We should learn from these experiences of success and failure.”
-- Robert S. McNamara, World Bank
Operations Evaluation Department,
The First 30 Years

3. Results: Poverty trends
Source: Chen, Shaohua and Martin Ravallion. (2008). The Developing World Is Poorer Than We Thought, But No Less Successful In The Fight Against Poverty, Policy Research Working Paper, Washington, DC: World Bank.

4. Current set up for evaluation and control
Executive Directors
Independent Evaluation Group
Inspection Panel
Self Evaluation
Monitoring
(QAG, DOTS, AS)
World Bank Group
Management
Internal Audit
Compliance
Ombudsman
(IFC, MIGA)
Institutional
Integrity

5. IEG’s clientele and stakeholders
The Board and CODE
Stakeholders
World Bank Group Management
World Bank Group staff
Development partners
MDBs, ECG, DAC, UNEG, NONIE, Bilaterals partners (NORAD, SDC, DFID)
Countries
Broader development community (NGOs, Academia, think tanks)
Governments (Evaluation Capacity Development)

6. IEG addresses both accountability and learning
Is the Bank Group doing what it says? Is it achieving its objectives? Contributing to country outcomes? With what results?
How is the institution building on project and CAS results frameworks
Learning
What projects and programs achieve results – relevance, efficacy, and efficiency – and why?
How can M&E be strengthened in the Bank and in client countries?

7. IEG is on the front line of a One Bank
DGE oversees evaluation work on public & private activities for the 3 entities
IEG’s Leadership Team is fully integrated
An increasing number of evaluations are done jointly across 3 units (e.g., Guarantees, Environment)
We are seeking a greater integration of budgets and programs
IEG moved to a common space (October 2008)

8. Products meet diverse client needs and purposes
IEG Products

9. 1. Projects: World Bank project performance
Development outcomes of lending have improved
Over-optimism impairs managing for results
Securing strong development outcomes at the country level is tougher
Improved focus on results requires better M&E, simpler results frameworks, and stronger evaluation knowledge
IEG Staff calculations, IEG Database as of December 5, 2008

10. IFC’s project performance
Improvements, with no apparent trade off between development results and IFC profitability
Better outcomes are distinguished by better work quality
Strong attention needed to work quality, portfolio risk and M&E as IFC continues to grow and decentralize
Additionality should be clearly mapped out in IFC’s strategies and measurement
IEG staff calculations, XPSR database

11. MIGA’s project performance
MIGA has been effective in facilitating the flow of FDI to high risk sectors and countries
Constrained by a Convention which needs changing
MIGA needs to focus more on quality at entry and
MIGA needs to strengthen alignment of business with development impact
MIGA must scale up its ability to assess and report on results, with self-evaluation for learning and accountability
IEG staff calculations

12. 2. Country evaluations: Parallel Country Evaluations
Ukraine
World Bank strategy should strive for greater selectivity—Priorities for governance and institutional development
IFC’s operations should increase coordination with the World Bank to address privatization challenges and replicate the design of successful advisory services
Indonesia
To address persisting poverty, the World Bank should help improve conditions for SMEs to grow and increase focus on good governance, infrastructure, and education.
IFC should play a stronger role in infrastructure and capital market development and strengthen the environmental supervision

13. 3. Thematic: Environment
Findings
The WBG has made progress since 1990 as an advocate for the environment
But treatment of environmental issues in many WBG country programs remains weak due to major external and internal constraints
Recommendations
Fully integrate environmental sustainability into strategy and assistance programs
Support rigorous M&E of environmental impacts
Improve coordination among the Bank, IFC, MIGA and external partners

14. Guarantees Findings Recommendations
Guarantees have facilitated the flow of investment to high-risk sectors and countries
Overlap and competition between WBG agencies confuses clients
Weakness in the delivery of political risk mitigation instruments constrains their deployment
Recommendations
Improve the current system or adopt an alternative system across the WBG
Introduce greater flexibility of guarantee instruments in responding to client needs and market developments

15. 4. Corporate: Doing Business Indicators
Findings
DBI have highlighted the issue of regulatory burden
They do not capture major aspects of business climate nor any benefits of regulation
Hence DBI ought not to be seen as a measure of country reform
Lessons & Recommendations
Don’t overstate the implications of the rankings
Improve the credibility of the indicators through data disclosure and transparency
Make reform analysis meaningful by making clear the partial and limited scope of coverage

16. 5. Global: Global Public Goods
Findings
Meeting the shared global challenges will be crucial to reducing poverty
The Bank’s role, particularly where global and local benefits diverge, is crucial
Recommendations
Provide better incentives to provide global public goods at the country level
Require clearer organizational arrangements to link country, regional, and global initiatives
Give greater voice to developing countries in the governance of global programs

17. 6. Quick Evaluation Brief: Past financial crises
Focus on growth and poverty from the outset
Emphasize not only speed & volume, but also quality of support
Seek selectivity, flexibility and adaptability of resources and response
Organize for early warning and preparedness
Stress coordination among partners
Focus on monitoring, evaluation and reporting
Going forward, build in the environment and climate change

18. Four challenges for evaluation’s effectiveness
Methodological: attribution and joint frameworks
Relevance under rapid change: forward looking results
Impact on results: follow-up by Board, Management
Timely knowledge sharing: internal and external

19. Forthcoming reports Annual Reports
Thematic, sector, corporate and global evaluations
Country evaluations
WB: Project effectiveness
Climate Change
Nepal
IFC: Advisory Services
Agriculture and Agribusiness
Uganda
MIGA: Frontier countries
HNP
Bangladesh
Water
Peru
Gender
CPIA
PSRCs
Safeguards

20. Improving Development Results Through Excellence in Evaluation
Thank You!
Improving Development Results Through Excellence in Evaluation