Presentation on theme: "University of Colorado and NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center"— Presentation transcript:
1 University of Colorado and NOAA/Climate Diagnostics Center Mainstreaming Adaptation to Climate Change (MACC) Issue Paper (DRAFT) Climate Change in the Caribbean: Water, Agriculture, ForestryDr. Roger S. PulwartyUniversity of Colorado andNOAA/Climate Diagnostics CenterBoulder CO 80305
2 Timescales of Climate Variation And Climate Change in the Caribbean BackgroundWater Resources in the Caribbean: an overviewAgriculture, Food Security and Forestry in the CaribbeanTimescales of Climate Variation And Climate Change in the CaribbeanImpacts on Water ResourcesImpacts on Agriculture and Food SecurityApproaches to Adaptation: Integrating climate andnatural resources assessments under a decision-oriented framework
3 AppendicesAPPENDIX B. Climate and APPENDIX A: Water and Climate Dialogue Summary StatementsFood Security: Implications for Research and PolicyAPPENDIX C. IWCAM Summary statementsAPPENDIX D. Climate and agricultural applications in the Caribbean: A case study of climate information use in sugar production in Trinidad (summary)
4 Three questions under the MACC framework: Are planning strategies for water, agricultural and forest resources in the Caribbean supported by the climate record?What additional pressures will be placed on these resources as a result of projected climatic variability and change?(3) What practical strategies may be engaged to reduce vulnerability and enhance social, economic and ecological resilience?
5 Characteristics of small island environments Ecological/environmentalGeographicalSocio-economicHistorical and political
6 Climate change projections for the Caribbean region TrendsAvg. annual air temp 1 FSea level rise 10 cm (3.9 ins) per 100 yrsGenerally drier conditionsScenarios for Future Climate2-3 CDrier mid-year, wetter end of yearOcean surface warmingSalt water intrusion into freshwaterSome models suggest more persistent ENSO-like conditions and less but more intense more intense tropical storms (5-10% windspeed)
8 Changes in the total amount of precipitation and in its frequency and intensity directly affect the magnitude and timing of runoff and theintensity of floods and droughts; however, at present, specificregional effects are uncertainThe impacts of climate change will depend on the baseline conditionsof the water supply system and the ability of water resourcemanagers to respond not only to climate change but also topopulation growth and changes in demands, technology, andeconomic, social and legislative conditionsNote: the latter are also “baseline” conditions
9 Where does climate variability come from?NAOTAENSO
19 Non-ENSO or Atlantic multi-decadal mode of global sea surface temperature(SST) (A) spatial correlations between first EOF and Atlantic SSTs; (B) temporal reconstruction of variability averaged over the rectangle in A (Goldenberg et all 2001)
20 Caribbean hurricane tracks and strength during (A) warm and (B) cold Atlantic multidecadal modes
21 The question remains “ Can we produce reliable baselines for planning give the large amount of year to year and decade to decade variations in the Caribbean?”Need for careful monitoring and inventory of critical variables and indicators (available and gaps)Need for “upscaling” local climate/met./hydro data and experience as well as “downscaling” models (precision vs. accuracy)
22 …viewed from Sectors and more… The Decision Mineral & Fossil Fuel AssessmentInformation and Decision Support SystemsKnowledge-based ProductsClimate SimulationsObservations and MonitoringThe DecisionInterdisciplinary ResearchMineral &Fossil FuelExtractionAgriculture& silvicultureUrbanDevelopmentWater &SustainabilityEcosystem &Land UseManagementConservation& BiodiversityHealth &Diseaseand more…Recreation
23 Integrated Water Resource Assessments Assessment of biophysical impacts on:hydrologic resources,water quality, andaquatic ecosystem integrity.Assessment of socio-economic impacts on:demand from market water use sectors, andwater resources management systems
24 Water resources adaptations Supply adaptation:modification of existing physical infrastructure;construction of new infrastructure; andalternative management of the existing water supply systemsDemand adaptation:conservation and improved efficiency;technological change; andmarket/price-driven transfers to other activities.
27 Trends and conditioning factors Unit(s) of analysis: Upstream-downstream,watershed, urbanRelevant hydro-climatic variables: data,qc, uncertaintiesDemands : Scale, trends and criticalityReliability of supply and distributionSeparation of regulatory and operational responsibilitiesIntegration of water quantity and qualitySecurity of rightsIncorporation of climate issues in existing networks priorities and policiesPost-audits of past events and technical interventions- if we did or are doing everything possible why did it work or not work?
28 Established frameworks for water allocation: national level Legal basis- water rights, legal/regulatory frameworkInstitutional base-Govt. and Non-govt. Mandates,responsibilities and practicesTechnical base-monitoring, assessment, decision support modelingFinancial and economic aspects-costs/benefits,pricing tradingParticipationStructural and development base-water supply and operations, users
30 Optimizing the net social benefit Difficulty in dealing with all related social aims of water/natural resource usesDifficulty in forging agreed-upon criteria for program evaluationLack of progress in comprehensive integrated management and in coordinating watersheds plansLack of comprehensive assessments of projects and initiatives
31 “Sufficient, reliable data are not available or shared at present to undertake a thorough analysis of the multiple threats to water resources, forestry, or food security”e.g. water consumption rates (availability per capita) and access to network water and sanitation facilities: changing levels of domestic water use, deterioration? Of piped water, tourism, costs of obtaining water
32 IWCAM…Institutional mechanisms must be put in place at the national and regional level, to undertake the regular dissemination of user-friendly information on such technologies as well as to assist with the training of nationals in the use of such technologyIntroduction of incentives to encourage the use of appropriateWhat does “capacity building” mean in this context?
33 ….viewed from Information chain Dialog, not two monologuesAssessmentInformation and Decision Support SystemsKnowledge-based ProductsClimate SimulationsObservations and MonitoringThe DecisionInterdisciplinary ResearchImprovedDecisionProcessInformation and Decision Support SystemsKnowledge-based ProductsClimate SimulationsThe DecisionInterdisciplinary ResearchObservations and MonitoringDistributed disseminationNew technologiesInteractiveUser friendlyFlexibleKnowledge-based ProductsThe DecisionInterdisciplinary ResearchObservations and MonitoringClimate SimulationsPlace-based and sector-basedUser orientedScenarios and probabilistic outcomesSynthesisClimate SimulationsThe DecisionInterdisciplinary ResearchObservations and MonitoringTypes of modelsScaleTemporalSpatialPerformance metricsObservations and MonitoringThe DecisionInterdisciplinary ResearchNetwork designPlatformsAppropriate mix of observationsQuality assurance and controlThe DecisionInterdisciplinary ResearchFraming the questionSynthesis toolsData assimilation & visualizationComplexity modelsScenario development and testingUnderstanding methodologiesPlace-basedThe DecisionClimate simulations & scenariosSocial trendsDemographicsEnergy useLand useInstitutionsPoliciesLawsValuesPolitics
34 Create a matrix of functional responsibilities of water-related Ministries and organizations to identify pathways for decision-making1. Establishing and consolidate a viable scientific basis for water resources management sector and for (inter)national (water) policiesInitiating a multi-stakeholder process that builds the knowledge to cope with climate variability and change.Building and share knowledge and information by bridging climate variability/change and water communities4. Raising awareness of the issues relating climate and water, and broaden scientific, political and water managers participation in the discussion
36 Understand Current Vulnerability and Assess Trends Effects Related to Altered ResourcesCharacterize the Risk of Climatic Variations and Review Past and Potential ResponsesNational Food BalanceInstitutional DevelopmentHousehold Food PovertyIncome ComponentsCultural PreferencesDemographyIndividual Food DeprivationNutritional StatusHealth StatusSocial Status: Three pillars of food security: food production, economic access to available food, and nutritional securityWhich group(s) really maintain these pillars?
37 Developing effective decision environments (a role for C5) Establish Regional Climate and Natural Resources Roundtables (which also provide for data sharing)Serve as a clearinghouse mechanism for promoting, initiating and facilitating climate change programs and policies;Review national strategies for enhancing the objectives of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and advising government on the way forwardSuch Roundtables should:Evaluate options, information, and technology and to examine the sectors that will most benefit from these inputs among existing institutionsExplore the feasibility of establishing a regional plan of action to identify and adapt, where appropriate, successful examples of water conservation and watershed programs;Identify entry points for information at different levels of governance(not just information provision)
38 IndeterminateClimate and cross-scale watershed issues: Linear vs. Adaptive managementLong-termDecadeYearSeasonalMonthlyDailyHourlyHousehold-municipal-NationalGlobalParish/CountyRegional
39 Developing prototypes or pilot studies for climate impacts assessments Select the exposure unit (usually at the watershed)Define the study area and critical issueDetermine general data availability and adequacySelect a time horizonIdentify trends and influences on trend for critical issuesIdentify a preliminary range of adaptationsDetermine the need for integration across sectorsProblem-orientationDo we really know how we adjust to drought condtions?
42 Approaches to risk communication and associated assumptions ___________________________________________________________________________Approach Assumptions and actionsDevelopment and From the risk expert to the public--finite anddelivery of a risk message uni-directionalAimed at bringing public views into line with expert viewsAssumes expert view has more validity for decision- makingDialogue about risk Interactive exchange of risk information--continuousAimed at balancing the content of risk messageAssumes both views contribute to decision-makingSocial processes Engage in a process that addresses concerns about riskof risk communication Aimed at enhancing understanding among stakeholders (DECISIVE AND NON-DECISIVE). Assumes the process is as important as the product_____________________________________________________________________________i.e. more than a one-way or even two-way street
43 Not simply communicating after project is over Link pilots to strong institutional mechanisms: Realizing implementationPast recommendations and interventions: How effective were they? What criteria are used for evaluation?Not simply communicating after project is overInvolving local organizations in planning andimplementationPartnerships (not just stakeholder assessments)How is the common interest pursued and secured? Where and why have particular local organizations been successful and sustained?
44 Mainstreaming……..What partnerships need to be engaged? What activities already exist?Goals of participants: What is being valued?(by “experts and role of experts”, state agencies, NGOs, local communities) Whose agenda are we agreeing on?Trends: Robustness: choice, inventory and baselinesConditioning factors: reconstructing influences on events, past interventionsProjections (scenarios and uncertainties)Alternatives: acting under uncertain informationPathways to decision-making: ,data, methods,Entry points: salience, legitimacy, acceptability, context
45 How does innovation occur How does innovation occur? Rate of adoption of knowledge-based innovation in water resources agencies Y= f(Xi)Xi = (compatibility of innovation with needs and values.capacity and characteristics.1/complexity of innovation.communicability within agency.communication networks outside(incl. other resources and othernational water agencies).% of initial innovators.investment in innovation
46 Rate of adoption of knowledge-based innovation Y= f(Xi) .observability in practice:who is else is involved?.evaluation of support tools:DSS,pricing (transfer of tested and untested approaches).respect conferred)