1. Toulmin
Conclusion
Claim
Reason
Warrant
Evidence
Grounds
Assumption

2. We argue like this… Conclusion The Truth IS We should Reason Because
Backing
And furthermore
Conclusion
The Truth IS
We should
Reason
Because
Evidence
The Facts Are
Assumption
I believe
I value
Possible Rebuttal
Unless
Qualifier
Probably

3. Assumptions
Value Assumption: Taken for granted belief about what is most important.
Descriptive Assumption: Taken for granted belief about how the world is, or will become.

4. Reasoning: Causation
One event is claimed to be the result of another event The answer to “What will happen” or “Why did that happen?”
3:35 These questions all refer to cause
Problem of confusing correlation with cause. May cause it, but we shouldn’t jump to that conclusion.

5. Reasoning by Cause
“Enrollment went up because tuition went down.”

6. “If we pay people more, they’ll work harder.”
This is also a descriptive assumption!

7. Juan: "How do you think you'll do on our philosophy exam tomorrow
Juan: "How do you think you'll do on our philosophy exam tomorrow?" Monique: "Great, I read all the books."  Juan: "Yeah but do you understand this stuff?" Monique: "I said I read all the books, didn't I?"

8. Who said food keeps us alive
Who said food keeps us alive? Tom died a few days ago and he was not short of good food.

9. Don't let all the talk about the necessity of exercise to a long life mislead you. Jim was a jock all his very short life.

10. I don't know why the car won't run; I just filled the gas tank.

11. Why don't you want to spend your life with me
Why don't you want to spend your life with me? I love you, and am I not good to you?

12. Necessary and Sufficient Cause
Necessary – the second thing (B) can never happen without the first (A)
There must be ammunition in a gun for a bullet to be fired from it.
A person must be infected with HIV to develop AIDS
Sufficient – every time the first thing happens, the second thing will follow

13. Necessary and Sufficient Cause
Sufficient - B always follows A
Pulling the trigger on a loaded gun causes it to fire.
This is sufficient unless the trigger mechanism is defective.

14. You may argue that a condition is
Necessary but not sufficient – a person must be infected with HIV to develop AIDS, but not everyone who has HIV develops AIDS.

15. You may argue that a condition is
Both necessary and sufficient - the gene mutation for Tay-Sachs disease causes it. Everyone with this mutation will develop the disease. No one will develop it without the gene mutation

16. You may argue that a condition is
Sufficient but not necessary – Getting an score of 50 out of 100 on the final (which accounts for 50% of the grade) will result in an F for the course (using a standard grading scale.)

17. You may argue that a condition is
Neither necessary or sufficient – Having a sprained ankle is neither necessary nor sufficient to cause a broken ankle. A person may break their ankle and never have sprained it, or they may sprain it and never break it.

18. Questions about Cause When and where does the effect occur?
What happened before the effect? (potential cause)
Does the effect always happen after the potential cause? (is the potential cause sufficient?)

19. Smoothco Baby Oil

20. Causation Fallacies Wrong cause (false cause)
Confusing a cause with the cause (insufficient cause)
Confusing after this with because of this (post hoc ergo proctor hoc)
Confusing causation with correlation

21. Possible explanations for correlation
X caused Y
Y caused X
X and Y are associated.
X and Y influence each other

22. Brainteaser: A girl was sitting in her hotel room when she heard a knock on the door. She opened the door and found that a man was standing outside. The man said, "Oh! I am really sorry, I thought this was my room." He then walked through the corridor to the elevator. The girl did not know the man. She closed her door and called the security asking them to apprehend the man. What made her suspicious of that man? He might have been genuinely mistaken.

24. Fallacies: Things that make you go hmm….

25. Causation Fallacies Wrong cause (false cause)
Confusing contributing factor with the cause (insufficient cause)
Confusing after this with because of this (post hoc ergo proctor hoc)
Confusing causation with correlation

26. Possible explanations for correlation
X caused Y
Y caused X
X and Y are associated.
X and Y influence each other

27. Reasoning by Example
Using specific examples to come to general conclusions. “Every time I eat at Bob’s Steak House, I have a wonderful meal. The meals at Bob’s Steak house are wonderful.”

28. Fallacy: Hasty Generalization
Too few specific instances “ Six employees were caught stealing supplies. You just can’t trust anyone today.”

29. Fallacy: Anecdotal Evidence
Individual stories substituted for a larger sample
“George lost 50 pounds at the Get Slim Spa!”

30. Reasoning by Analogy
Since A and B are essentially alike, what is true of A is true of B.
“This worked in a factory in China, so I think it will work here in Brazil, too.”

31. Fallacy: Invalid Analogy
Comparing things that are not essentially alike. “This works well in business, so it will work well in schools, too.”

32. Reasoning by Sign
A and B are so strongly related that the presence or absence of one indicates the presence or absence of the other. “There’s a lot of smoke coming from that building. It’s probably on fire.”

33. False Sign
Concluding based on an assumed relationship between A and B. My teacher doesn’t smile at me, was grouchy when I went to office hours, and gave me a low grade. My teacher doesn’t like me.

34. Deductive Arguments Major Premise (If) Minor Premise (If)
Conclusion (Then)

35. Examples The primary goal of medicine is to help people stay healthy.
Holistic approaches have a good record of helping people stay healthy.
Holistic approaches should be included in medical treatments.

36. False Premise
The most important goal in office management is making sure that employees follow office rules.
Yelling at employees and bullying them has a good record of getting them to follow office rules.
We should yell at and bully employees.

37. False Conclusion (Non Sequitur)
The primary goal of medicine is to help people stay healthy.
Holistic approaches have a good record of helping people stay healthy.
We all need to take care of our own health.

38. Mudslinging
(Ad Homenum)
Attacking the person instead of the argument

39. Dilemma (False Dilemma)
Giving two choices, one of which is impossible or extremely unfavorable.

41. Appeal to Authority
Using authority, rather than the strength of the argument, to win the argument

42. Appeal to Ignorance
Claiming that because you can’t prove it's true, it must be false or vice versa

43. Circular Argument (begging the question)
Everyone should be honest because it’s good to tell the truth Using the claim to support the claim

45. Straw Man
Feminists are man-haters who want to destroy the nuclear family.

47. Can you explain why the CEO is making 550 times the average salary of this company’s employees? Our company has been invaded by people intent on ruining our reputation. We must look into this immediately.

48. Red Herring
Diverting attention away from the real issue

49. False Equivalence
Two positions are said to have equal weight, although, in fact, they don’t
Two positions, actions, or things are said to be the same, when in fact they share irrelevant characteristics.

50. Let’s Play…
Name that argument!

51. Of all the people currently addicted to crack cocaine, 85% began using illegal drugs by smoking marijuana. Marijuana is a gateway drug that leads to cocaine use.
Cause

52. Of all the people currently addicted to crack cocaine, 85% began using illegal drugs by smoking marijuana. Marijuana is a gateway drug that leads to cocaine use.
Misleading Statistic

53. Contrary to what the chemical industry argues, limiting pesticide use does not threaten the food supply. Sweden has cut back on pesticides by 50 percent over the last few years with almost no decrease in its harvest. The Campbell Soup Company uses no pesticides at all on tomatoes grown in Mexico, and they reap as much fruit as ever. Many California farmers who practice pesticide-free agriculture have actually experienced increases in their crop yields.
Example

54. Contrary to what the chemical industry argues, limiting pesticide use does not threaten the food supply. Sweden has cut back on pesticides by 50 percent over the last few years with almost no decrease in its harvest. The Campbell Soup Company uses no pesticides at all on tomatoes grown in Mexico, and they reap as much fruit as ever. Many California farmers who practice pesticide-free agriculture have actually experienced increases in their crop yields.
Hasty Generalization

55. The United States Constitution guarantees all citizens the right to bear arms. Gun control legislation infringes on the right of citizens to bear arms. Therefore, gun control legislation violates our Constitutional rights.
Deductive or Syllogistic Argument

56. The United States Constitution guarantees all citizens the right to bear arms. Gun control legislation infringes on the right of citizens to bear arms. Therefore, gun control legislation violates our Constitutional rights.
False Premise

57. Almost every industrialized nation in the world except the United States has a national curriculum and national tests to help ensure that schools throughout the country are meeting high standards of education. If such a system works elsewhere, it can work in the United States as well.
Argument by Analogy

58. Almost every industrialized nation in the world except the United States has a national curriculum and national tests to help ensure that schools throughout the country are meeting high standards of education. If such a system works elsewhere, it can work in the United States as well.
Invalid Analogy or False Premise

59. In sport, as in war, there is no substitute for victory.
Analogy

60. In sport, as in war, there is no substitute for victory.
Invalid Analogy

62. Deductive argument of cause
Although most people can gamble responsibly and know when to stop, there is a certain small percentage of the population that will become addicted to gambling. The more opportunities there are for gambling, the more likely it is that this small percentage will become addicted. So, if legalized casino gambling came to New Hampshire, the rate of gambling addiction would rise.
Deductive argument of cause

63. Although most people can gamble responsibly and know when to stop, there is a certain small percentage of the population that will become addicted to gambling. The more opportunities there are for gambling, the more likely it is that this small percentage will become addicted. So, if legalized casino gambling came to New Hampshire, the rate of gambling addiction would rise.
False Premise

64. Argument Analysis
Use your critical thinking skills to identify the argument and to find the weakness.

65. Analyzing the Arguments
What is the claim?
What are the reasons?
Are the reasons strong?
What is the evidence?
Is the evidence strong?
What are the assumptions?

66. Putting Critical Thinking to Work
Look at the evidence
Ask questions
Be aware of values and biases
Construct logical arguments
Reject illogical arguments
Make better decisions

67. Reasoning by Criteria Deductive
Using principles, laws, rules or beliefs as the premise of the argument.