1. Presentation by South Africa
Major Economies Forum
National actions and how they can address long-term objectives to combat climate change
Presentation by South Africa

2. Two Scenarios frame South Africa’s options

3. To close this gap, a wide range of mitigation actions or wedges were modelled and costed.
(Wedges refer to “triangles” showing emissions reductions over time. Emission reductions are the difference between emissions in the reference case (GWC) and the mitigation case. If the reductions increase over time, the graphs have the shape of a wedge.)
In this graph, all the small wedges make up one medium wedge; and all medium wedges would make up one BIG wedge.
All BIG wedges are concentrated in four sectors: electricity, liquid fuels, transport, and industry. The largest wedge is CO2 tax.
The costs (indicated in bottom right corner), includes negative costs: e.g. efficiency in industry and vehicle efficiency, and positive cost options.
We went through this in detail during our previous discussion in Cabinet.

4. Three Strategic Options
1800
Current development
trends
1600
Reach for the Goal
1400
1200
Low cost SD-PAMs
1000
Incentivised mitigation action
800
600
Incentivised GHG pricing
Start Now. closes less than half of the gap
Scale Up: closes almost two-thirds of the gap
Use the Market goes three-quarters of the way
Neither Scale Up (the regulatory approach) or Use the Market (economic instruments) – completely closes the gap; but they can work together.
And that is the point where we ended our discussion in Cabinet last time. My sense was that we are all ready to proceed with the ‘no brainers’, those in the negative cost zone, right away. That is mostly Start Now. We are already implementing elements of this in our response to the electricity crisis.
And we are committed to the Reach for the Goal package - investing in long term R&D and so on.
The proposed policy framework to which I will turn in a minute answers the question on how we can combine Scale Up, i.e. state-led regulation, with the Use the Market set of economic instruments. That is the nut to crack if we are serious about reaching for what is required by science.
Before I turn to the Proposed Policy Framework that will bring this together, a few words on the economic modelling – as requested at the previous Cabinet.
400
IPCC lowest scenario
200
2003
2006
2009
2012
2015
2018
2021
2024
2027
2030
2033
2036
2039
2042
2045
2048
2050

5. Peak, plateau and decline trajectory

6. Differentiation in IPCC Box 13.7

7. Assumptions
IPCC Box 13.7: distinction between absolute and relative reductions is fundamental
Equitable approach: development space for developing countries (peak, plateau & decline) & nearer term peak and decline for developed countries
Adequate, predictable and binding international support
Annex I QERC’s: aggregate at least 40% by 2020; 80 – 95% by 2050; 1990 base year
Neither a pathway nor the domestic actions needed to achieve the pathway can substitute for a quantified emission reduction commitment (QERC)

8. Discussion on long term pathways should not…
For developed countries:
Divert attention from Bali Roadmap, incl. mid-term targets & comparability of effort
Introduce approaches that will not form part of legally-binding international regime
For developing countries:
Introduce new layer of conditionality to access international climate funding &technology (it is a domestic planning tool)
Dilute the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities & respective capabilities

9. Thank you