1. Exports' productivity and growth across Spanish provinces
Asier Minondo
SAE 2008
Zaragoza, 11th December 2008

2. Introduction
Specialising in some goods is more growth promoting than specialising in others:
Decline of the net barter terms of trade (Prebisch, 1950; Singer, 1950)
Natural resources' curse (Sachs and Warner, 2001)
Learning by doing (Young, 1991; Matsuyama, 1992)

3. Introduction
Hausmann, Hwang and Rodrik (2007). “What you exports matters”, Journal of Economic Growth
Some commodities have a higher implied productivity level than others
Countries that latch on to high-productivity commodities will grow faster than countries specialised in low-productivity commodities

4. Introduction
HHR find a positive link between exports' productivity level and growth
Goal of the paper:
Does this relationship also holds at a regional level? Analysis of the relationship of the Spanish provinces exports' productivity and growth in the period

5. Exports' productivity and growth across Spanish regions
Outline
Introduction and goal of the paper
Construction of the exports' productivity index
Spanish provinces exports' productivity-level
Econometric analysis
Conclusions

6. Construction of the exports' productivity index
1st step: The productivity level associated to a commodity: PRODY
GDP per capita
Comparative-advantage

7. Construction of the exports' productivity index
2nd step: The level of productivity associated to a country's exports: EXPY

8. Construction of the exports' productivity index
Limitation: PRODY (and hence EXPY) does not correct for differences in quality within a product category
HS Bicycles, Unit Value ($ per unit), 2005
China 33
United States
336

9. Construction of the exports' productivity index
HS Bicycles
Low-quality bicycles
Medium-quality bicycles
High-quality bicycles
CHN MEX ESP USA
33$ $ $ $
Low Medium High
Min p p Max.

10. Construction of the exports' productivity index
Varieties' PRODY
Quality-adjusted
EXPY

11. Construction of the exports' productivity index
Varieties' PRODY
Source: UN Comtrade; World Bank, World Development Indicators
Sample: 115 countries
Period:
Representativeness: 89% of world merchandise exports
Spanish provinces EXPY
Agencia Tributaria's international trade data-base

12. Exports' productivity and growth across Spanish regions
Outline
Introduction and goal of the paper
Construction of the exports' productivity index
Spanish provinces exports' productivity-level
Econometric analysis
Conclusions

13. Top 7 EXPY Bottom 7 Huelva 18870 Las Palmas 9431 Ávila 18725 Almería
Spanish provinces exports' productivity-level, (2000 constant PPP $)
Top 7
EXPY
Bottom 7
Huelva
18870
Las Palmas
9431
Ávila
18725
Almería
10209
Girona
18671
Tenerife
10259
Soria
18606
Cáceres
12211
Huesca
18369
Zamora
12640
Madrid
18263
Lugo
12669
Álava
17855
Córdoba
13101

14. Exports' productivity and growth across Spanish regions
Outline
Introduction and goal of the paper
Construction of the exports' productivity index
Spanish provinces exports' productivity-level
Econometric analysis
Conclusions

15. Econometric analysis
Human capital
Growth in value-added per worker
Period: ; Two 5-year intervals

16. Results of the econometric analyses
OLS
(without Canary Islands)
Fixed-effects
EXPY
0.017
(1.63)
0.020
(2.02)*
0.018
(2.39)**
Value-added per worker
-0.047
(-4.58)***
-0.049
(-5.07)***
-0.185
(-11.06)***
Human capital
0.007
(1.07)
0.008
(1.27)
0.015
(1.78)*
R-squared
0.23
0.33
0.75
Degrees of freedom 95 94 46
F-test on province-level effects (p-value)
0.00

17. Exports' productivity and growth across Spanish regions
Outline
Introduction and goal of the paper
Construction of the exports' productivity index
Spanish provinces exports' productivity-level
Econometric analysis
Conclusions

18. Conclusions
HHR show that countries which export high-productivity goods grow faster than countries which export low-productivity goods
Test this relationship at a regional level: Spanish provinces; period
We also find a positive relationship between specialisation in more productive goods and growth at a regional level